Sample Category Title

Notes/Observations

• Major European PMI Services data improving (Beats: Euro Zone, Germany, France, Spain, Italy)
• Inflation still largely absent in Switzerland with Feb YoY reading at 0.6%. SNB in no rush to exit its negative rate policy
• ECB and BOE activate currency swap arrangement ahead of Brexit

Asia:

• RBA left its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50% (as expected). No notable changes in language and maintained its GDP and inflation outlooks. Reiterated view that low level of interest rates was continuing to support the domestic economy and that that inflation remained low and stable.
• China National People's Congress (NPC) set its 2019 targets (in-line with market expectations) with GDP growth set between 6.0-6.5% (compares with 6.5% in 2018) ; Maintained CPI target at ~3.0%. Fiscal policy to be proactive, monetary policy to be prudent; cuts VAT for some sectors and top bracket
• South Korea Feb CPI saw its slowest annual pace in over a year (M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; YoY: 0.5% v 0.7%e)
• Japan Feb PMI Services: 52.3 v 51.6 prior
• China Feb Caixin PMI Services missed expectations to hit a 4-month low ( 51.1 v 53.5e)

Europe:

• UK Feb BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: no est v 1.8% prior
• Brexit Sec Barclay and Attorney General Cox to meet EU officials today in efforts to secure a legally binding change to the Irish backstop

Macro

• (IT) Italy: Q4 GDP growth was revised up slightly to -0.1% q/q in the final reading from -0.2% q/q reported initially. That still left the country in technical recession and the annual rate was actually revised down slightly to 0.0% y/y from 0.1% y/y. Government officials will likely blame the weak data on the restrictions imposed by Brussels and see it as a justification for further spending.
• (EU) Eurozone: The final services readings surprised to the upside, with the Italian reading at 50.4, the French reading revised to 50.2 from 49.8, and German to 55.3 from 55.1, leaving the overall Eurozone services PMI at 52.8 and the composite at 51.9, versus a preliminary reading of 51.4 versus a 51.0 reading in January. Signs of a modest firming of growth and reports that companies continue to take on more staff. Additional arguments then for the hawkish members on the ECB's governing council, who don't want to commit to a further round of TLTROs.
• (CN) China: As expected the official goal for economic growth this year to 6.0% from 6.5%, but at the same time announced a 3 percentage point cut to bracket of value added tax, which helped to support Chinese markets despite the weaker services PMI. The GDP target, the lowest in decades, and considered realistic and help steer and steady expectations. China set a target of 6.5%-7% in 2016, ultimately achieving 6.7% growth, supported by a record surge in bank loans, a speculative housing boom and billions in government investment. The government might not allow a much lower rate of GDP growth but because of the mini-stimulus the cost of creating overcapacity is slower growth in the future. It appears progress will continue to depend on official appetite for the much needed but complicated reform agenda, and their tolerance for short-term pain (lower growth) to achieve medium-term gains (more sustainable growth).

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.16% at 375.68, FTSE +0.36% at 7,159.91, DAX +0.23% at 11,618.92, CAC-40 +0.17% at 5,295.79, IBEX-35 +0.25% at 9,283.00, FTSE MIB +0.28% at 20,775.50, SMI +0.14% at 9,402.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.23%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equities European Indices trade mostly higher across the board following a mixed session in Asia and higher US futures. More positive European Services PMI offset weaker China Caixin Services PMI which hit a 4 month low. On the corporate front shares of Evonik trades higher on a top and bottom line earnings beat and confirmed divestment of methacrylates assets for €3B; Siltronic, XP Power, DX Group, GVC Holdings and Zumtobel are among other risers after earnings. While Eurofins Scientific among the notable decliners after trimming its full year outlook, with BBA Aviation, Intertek and Login among other decliners on earnings. Elsewhere Interserve gains after providing an up update on Coltrane Asset Management proposal; Altice declines over 7% after a downgrade at Barclays; Vodafone gains after announcing a t €4B convertible bond offering. Looking ahead notable earners include retailers Target and Kohl's as well Ciena and GNC Holdings among others.
• Consumer discretionary: Debenhams [DEB.UK] -6.5% (trading update), GVC Holdings [GVC.UK] +1.5% (earnings), Richemont [CFR.CH] -3% (analyst action)
• Consumer staples: British American Tobacco [BATS.UK] +1.5% (announces charge due to court decision), Eurofins Scientific [ERF.FR] -7% (earnings)
• Telecom: Vodafone [VOD.UK] +2.5% (raise of funds), Zumbotel [ZAG.AT] +3% (earnings)
• Industrials: Evonik Industries [EVK.DE] +5% (earnings), BBA Aviation [BBA.UK] -5% (earnings), Talgo [TLGO.ES] -9% (placement), Interserve [IRV.UK] +6.5% (update on proposal)
• Technology: Siltronic [WAF.DE] +2.5% (earnings)
• Materials: Lonza Group [LONN.CH] n/c (adjusts outlook)

Speakers

• BOE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) Minutes from Feb 26th which highlighted that it would launch a new Euro liquidity ahead of the Brexit from Mar 13th. Expected material market volatility in the event of a disorderly Brexit but noted that the UK banking system was able to withstand a Brexit shock
• ECB and BOE activate currency swap arrangement to provide liquidity to UK banking sector. ECB working closely to monitor market conditions
• Italy Senate Finance Committee chief Bagnai (euro skeptic) stated that would be difficult for EU Commission to sanction Italy if govt raises the budget deficit to manage the economic slowdown be difficult for EU Commission to sanction Italy if govt raises the budget deficit to manage the economic slowdown
• Italy Undersecretary Buffagni: 5-Star party ready to quit ruling coalition over Turin-Lyon high-speed rail link. Would favors a govt breakup if TAV not halted
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Govt Skingsley: Hard to understand the recent developments in the SEK currency; economic fundamentals do not justify its weakness
• Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB): Cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.5%
• Czech Central Bank Holub (chief economist): domestic economy data slightly inflationary; would warrant more cautious monetary policy approach. Reiterated stance that monetary policy normalizing can continue in 2019, but at slower pace than in 2018
• Turkey Trade Minister: US decision to end preferential trade with Turkey contradicts trade volume target between two countries. To continue to work on increasing trade volume with the US. Added that the decision by the US would impact SMEs in the US.
• Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) Policy Statement noted that the rate policy was in-line with degree of accommodativeness. Inflation was expected to remain low, mainly due to policy measures. Inflation expected to remain low in the immediate term and remain steady compared to 2018
• Taiwan Central Bank: Global economic growth momentum was slowing. Taiwan interest rate was relatively moderate compared to major economies. TWD currency REER suggested that exports were still competitive
• China Cabinet Research Head Huang stated that needed GDP growth of ~6.2% in 2019 and 2020 to reach goal of doubling GDP by 2020. Lower growth target could help pursue quality growth and consistent with growth potential, expectations and ensured employment.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• Better European PMI Services data did not aid the Euro currency too must as the EUR/USD was relatively steady at 1.1325/30 area. Italy continued to be a potential headwind. 5-Star official stated that it could be prepared to quit the ruling coalition over Turin-Lyon high-speed rail link. italy Q4 GDP confirmed the technical recession for the country.
• GBP/USD was steady at 1.3175 area. Brexit Sec Barclay and Attorney General Cox to meet EU officials today in efforts to secure a legally binding change to the Irish backstop but dealers did not believe anything would be accomplished today. Expectations continue to swirl that the Brexit deadline would be extended or that PM May's deal would be passed by parliament. Analysts note that an extension to Article 50 would lower the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, but would also prolong Brexit-related uncertainties.
• USD/CHF was higher by 0.3% and back above parity as inflation was still largely absent in Switzerland with Feb YoY reading at 0.6%. SNB in no rush to exit its negative rate policy.

Economic Data

• (IN) India Feb PMI Services: 52.5 v 52.2 prior (9th month of expansion); PMI Composite: 53.8 v 53.6 prior
• (RU) Russia Feb PMI Services: 55.3 v 54.4e (37th month of expansion); PMI Composite: 54.1 v 53.6 prior
• (IE) Ireland Feb Services PMI: 55.9 v 54.2 prior; Composite PMI: 55.4 v 53.3 prior
• (MY) Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) left Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.25% (as expected)
• (ZA) South Africa Feb PMI (whole economy): 50.2 v 49.5e (1st expansion in 8 months)
• (CH) Swiss Feb CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
• (CH) Swiss Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.3% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7% prior
• (SE) Sweden Feb PMI Services: 55.9 v 54.5e; PMI Composite: 54.9 v 53.5 prior
• (HU) Hungary Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.4% v 3.9%e
• (ES) Spain Feb Services PMI: 54.5 v 54.2e (64th month of expansion); Composite PMI: # v 53.9e
• (SE) Sweden Jan Private Sector Production M/M: -0.7% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 4.6% prior
• (SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v +3.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v +2.4% prior
• (SE) Sweden Jan Service Industry Production Value Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.6% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.1% prior
• (HK) Hong Kong Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 7.1% v 1.1%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 6.9% v 1.4%e
• (NG) Nigeria Feb PMI: 53.3 v 54.0 prior
• (IT) Italy Feb Services PMI: 50.4 v 49.5e (moved back into expansion); Composite PMI: 49.6 v 48.6e
• (FR) France Feb Final Services PMI: 50.4 v 49.8e (1st expansion in 3 months); Composite PMI: 50.4 v 49.9e
• (DE) Germany Feb Final Services PMI: 55.3 v 55.1e (confirmed 68th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.8 v 52.7e
• (EU) Euro Zone Feb Final Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.3e (confirmed 68th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.9 v 51.4e
• (IT) Italy Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e (confirms technical recession)
• (UK) Feb New Car Registrations Y/Y: +1.4% v -1.6% prior
• (ZA) South Africa Q4 GDP Annualized Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.6%e
• (UK) Feb Services PMI: 51.3 v 50.0e (31st month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.5 v 50.1e
• (UK) Feb Official Reserves Changes: $0.1B v $1.5B prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Jan Retail Sales M/M: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e

Fixed Income Issuance

• (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) opened its book to sell 10-year bond via syndicate; yield guidance seen 4.125%
• (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.85B vs. ZAR2.85B indicated in 2026, 2032 and 2037 bonds
• (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR8.9T vs. IDR8.0T target in 6-month Islamic Bills, 2-year, 4-year, 7-year and 15-year Project-based Sukuk (PBS)
• (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.435B vs. €3.0-4.0B indicated in 6-month and 12-month bills
• (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total €1.15B vs. €1.15B indicated in 2029 and 2047 RAGB bonds
• Sold €805M in 0.50% Feb 2029 RAGB bond; Avg Yield: 0.491% v 0.472% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.41x v 2.34x prior
• Sold €345M in 1.50% Feb 2047 RAGB; Avg Yield: 1.262% v 1.355% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.53x v 2.12x prior
• (CH) Switzerland sold CHF in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.781% prior

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL Sales data
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €750M in 0.10% Apr 2026 I/L Bonds (bundei)
• 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3-month and 6-month bills
• 05:30 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR)
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior (revised from 5.3%)
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v -13.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -17.8% prior
• 06:30 (TR) Turkey Feb Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): No est v 75.61 prior
• 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.3%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.8% prior; Economic Activity Index (ex-mining) Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
• 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 3-month bills
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:30 (US) Fed's Rosengren (moderate, voter)
• 07:45 (US) Weekly Chain Store Sales data
• 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ Bond issuance
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales data
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence Index: 111.8e v 111.9 prior
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• 09:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction: Dairy Trade price index: No est v +0.9% prior
• 09:45 (US) Feb Final Markit Services PMI: 57.3e v 56.2 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 55.8 prelim
• 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 57.3e v 56.7 prior
• 10:00 (US) Dec New Home Sale: 590Ke v 657K prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves data
• 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
• 10:35 (UK) BOE Gov Carney testifies in House of Lords
• 11:30 (US) Fed's Harker (hawk), non-voter)
• 14:00 (US) Jan Monthly Budget Statement: +$6.0Be v -$13.5B prior
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventory data
• (MX) Citibanamex Survey of Economists

Today China's National People's Congress reduced its economic growth target to 6.00-6.50%, announced a policy of “easing for stability” and initiated meaningful tax cuts. Policy remains focused on fiscal stimulus over credit expansion. However, we anticipate the central bank will cut benchmark interest rates by 1.5% by the end of 2019. Despite weak domestic growth, GDP will stabilize increasing demand for Chinese assets. The yuan's bullish run will slow, as markets reduce emphasis on trade tensions and increase focus on the falling current account balance

Mixed news in Europe

The economies of France and Germany are slightly recovering. Italy's annual GDP figures indicate a technical recession: mid-duration yields are starting to tick upwards with 10-years at 2.75%. That's 1% below Greece (highest in EU), but Greek yields are falling while Italy's are heading higher. At the European Central Bank meeting this Thursday, President Mario Draghi and colleagues will have to address deceleration in Euro area. ECB's growth forecasts remain overly optimistic at 0.4% quarterly. ECB will likely maintain its policy.

Annual growth and inflation estimates are likely to be cut in June. ‘Targeted longer-term refinancing operations' will capture market attention, but with little impact on the real economy. Elsewhere the Central bank of Turkey is expected to hold its rate at 24%. The CBRT is expected to wait until disinflation entrenches, before cutting interest rates. The environment looks right for carry strategies, making TRY an attractive long with CHF a solid funding option.

The single European currency depreciated about 91 base points against the Japanese Yen on Monday. The decline was stopped by a support level formed by the 100-hour simple moving average at 126.50 during yesterday's trading session.

The currency pair tested a support cluster formed by the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA at 126.68 during the first half of today's trading session.

If this support cluster holds, the exchange rate will aim at a swing high of 127.15 within this session.

On the other hand, if the EUR/JPY currency exchange rate passes the support cluster as mentioned above, the next target for bearish traders will be near the 200-hour SMA at 126.20.

I love to trade a lot - which is of course a euphemistic way of saying I love to gamble. Although I have been to Vegas more than a dozen times I never laid down so much as a dollar bet in any casino. I have absolutely no interest in blackjack, craps, slot machines or any other games of chance and I look down with disdain at the excited masses crowding the cavernous Vegas gambling halls. But deep down, if I am honest with myself, I have to admit that whenever I trade a lot I am just as much of a sucker as every hopeless loser that gives up his hard earned money to Steve Wynn or Sheldon Adelson

If you are constantly trading just for the sake of trading, just for the rush of being “in the game”, just for the momentarily thrill of being right you are gambling. You are trading without an edge, without any solid information and are therefore completely vulnerable to the random vagaries of price.

Towards the end of last year I decided to do something about my toxic addiction and created two separate accounts - one for trades that would only follow my trading plan - the other for all my trading/gambling impulses. But before I share my experience with you allow me to define the difference between a trade and a gamble. The key distinction is information. The less information you posses the more likely the chances are that your trade is gamble.

A techincal trader who only looks at the five minute chart to gauge his support and resistance points is just gambling. On the other hand a trader who looks through the hourly, daily, weekly and monthly support points, carefully calculates Fib retracement positions and only acts when multiple time frames confirm his analysis has a much greater chance of success. Similarly a fundamental trader who mindlessly reacts to the latest economic release without understanding the prior market expectations, the current price flow and and countervailing information on the other currency in the pair is also just gambling.

Notice the unifying theme? Like everything else in life success in trading requires hard work and homework. There is no magic formula, no simple 5 minutes per day method to make you money. In trading, working hard is no guarantee of winning, but not working hard is an assurance of losing, because trading at its core is a game of information and you must always be up to date on what' s gong on in the market or become the sucker at the table.

Now back to my experiment. I subdivided my trading into two accounts - one where I traded only calendar risk on a reactive basis with very disciplined entries and exit rules and strict adherence to money management. The other account was just for my whims and impulses. An interesting thing occurred. My “trading plan” account which I traded far rarely and more carefully became much more profitable and incurred much lower drawdowns. Meanwhile the equity in my gambling account bounced up and down like a hopped up rubber ball. Suddenly the thrill of “being in the game” wasn't so much fun. Like a reformed smoker who appreciates the smell of fresh air, I was no longer drawn to making impulsive trades. That's not completely true. I still dabbled in my gambling account (who amongst us can completely give up our vices?) but my need to trade constantly has been reduced substantially. The less you gamble, the more you realize how stupid it is and that has been the most valuable lesson learned so far.

Written by our old partner Boris Schlossberg at BKTraderFX.

The Australian Dollar remained in a junior descending channel pattern against the US Dollar on Monday. The exchange rate depreciated about 0.42% during Monday's trading session.

As for the near future, it is likely that the junior descending channel will guide the AUD/USD currency pair towards a support level formed by the weekly S1 at 0.7035 within this session.

If the weekly support level holds, the currency exchange rate will make an upside reversal during the following trading session.

Great traders that we have had the pleasure to know and to be around, on exchange floors and on trade desks, had certain repeatable traits that all level traders can learn, or take something from;

• Empathy and the ability to listen.
• Faith in their own ability to get things done, if life and in work.
• Humility, and a willingness to accept defeat as graciously as accepting success.
• Desire to work towards, and not to just expect, having more success than defeat.

They listened more than they spoke. They had two ears and one mouth and had learned to use them in the right proportion. The ability to listen, either to a mentor, to your inner self, or to the market, is critical for success.

They had an undying faith and belief in their own ability, and accepted that most things that went wrong were probably outside of their control, because they planned their work. Their brutal honesty with themselves and with others allowed them to develop a faith in their own ability that was beyond the norm.

They were humble, and understood that they were not smarter, stronger, nor wiser than others; they just knew that there were few others that had more faith in their own ability to follow something through and to achieve their goals.

They had faith that they could get it done, and humility to accept defeat; that is what defined them, and usually defines any great trader. The great ones in life, and on the floors, are the ones who are not susceptible to the negative influence of others, they have a goal, they have a plan, and they will get there. It may take time, they may fail along the way, but they just will not let things overwhelm them as they plot their course.

Successful traders have a plan that they refine, develop and test, and debrief on a daily basis. They share their plan as a work in motion, and not as the Holy Grail. A successful trader accepts that there is always something new to learn, and however good the plan is today, there will be the chance to improve it tomorrow.

Zig Ziegler says; "You are working with no plan? Why? Working without a plan is about as difficult as trying to come back from somewhere that you have never been". You will become profitable if you achieve success, but success rarely comes without a plan.

Success is not counted in cash; success starts with an inner faith, the ability to listen, and in having a plan. However, financial freedom only comes by following the plan.

Written by our old partner TheLFB Trade Team.

The US Dollar has been moving with low volatility against the Canadian Dollar since Monday's trading session. The currency pair made a 67 pips movement during the last 24 hours.

Everything being equal, it is likely that the currency exchange rate continues its upside movement within this session. The potential upside target will be near a resistance level at 1.3368.

However, bearish traders may push the USD/CAD exchange rate down towards the weekly pivot point at 1.3240 during this session.

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar remained in a junior descending channel pattern on Monday. The currency pair tested the bottom border of a dominant ascending channel during the first half of today's trading session.

If a support level formed by the lower boundary of the dominant ascending channel pattern at 0.6793 holds, a surge towards a resistance cluster near the 0.6825 area could be expected today.

Although, if the currency exchange rate passes the dominant channel, bearish traders could drive the pair further south and potentially targeting the weekly S1 at 0.6765 within this session.

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.13802
Open: 1.13391
% chg. over the last day: -0.34
Day's range: 1.13182 – 1.13409
52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR started to descend before the Central Bank of Europe meeting set for Thursday. During the last two days, the quotes fell by 50 points and updated the local minimums. The EUR can descend further. The demand for USD is propped up by the good dynamics of the US/China negotiations. The financial market participants are expecting the publiscation of the US economic reports. You should also keep an eye on the FOMC representatives' rhetorics. The key range is 1.13200-1.13450. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 05.03.2019:

Business Activity Report (EU) – 11:00 (GMT+2:00);

Non-Industrial PMI (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

New Real Estate Sales (EU) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.13200, 1.13000, 1.12800
Resistance levels: 1.13450, 1.13650, 1.13800

If the price fixes below 1.13200, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.12800-1.12600.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.13600-1.13800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.32476
Open: 1.31734
% chg. over the last day: -0.45
Day's range: 1.31499 – 1.31857
52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD is in the bearish mood. The GBP started to descend after the release of weak business reports in the UK construction sector. The investors are waiting for more intel on the Brexit project. Right now the quotes are consolidating at 1.31500-1.32000. The trading instrument can correct further. You should also keep an eye on the US newsfeed.

At 11:30 (GMT+2:00) the UK will publish the Service Industry PMI.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31000, 1.30500
Resistance levels: 1.32000, 1.32450, 1.32800

If the price fixes below 1.31500, expect the quotes to correct toward the round 1.31000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.32400-1.32600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.32756
Open: 1.33018
% chg. over the last day: +0.18
Day's range: 1.33012 – 1.33440
52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD keeps showing a positive trend. Right now the CAD is testing the local resistance at 1.33400. The round 1.33000 acts as a mirror support. The trading instrument has further growth prospects. The financial market participants are waiting for important economic reports from Canada and the US. You should open positions from the key levels.

At 17:00 (GMT+2:00) Ivey will publish the PMI for Canada.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the %K line which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.33000, 1.32700, 1.32400
Resistance levels: 1.33400, 1.34000

If the price fixes above 1.33400, expect the USD/CAD to grow toward the round 1.34000.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.32700-1.32500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 111.841
Open: 111.729
% chg. over the last day: -0.14
Day's range: 111.712 – 111.959
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

The safe haven currency keeps consolidating. There is no single defined trend. The local support and resistance levels are 111.750 and 112.000. The investors are waiting for the statistic reports from the US. You should keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds yield and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 05.03.2019 is calm.

There are no precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram started to rise again, which points to the bullish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 111.750, 111.500, 111.200
Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.500

If the price fixes above the round 112.000, expect the quotes to grow toward 112.400-112.600.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 11.500-111.300.

Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) updated two-week highs and closed in the positive zone (+0.17%). The US currency was supported by the growth of the US government bonds yield, which increased amid news about positive negotiations between the US and China. Donald Trump also noted yesterday that the dollar had become too strong and criticized the Fed, but the markets did not particularly react to his statements. Today, investors expect important statistics from the US, as well as speeches by the FOMC representatives.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, as experts expected. The head of the Central Bank, Philip Lowe, expects the acceleration of economic growth in the country this year. Additional support for the Australian and New Zealand dollars was provided by the prospects for the abolition of tariffs on Chinese goods if a trade agreement would be signed.

The "black gold" prices are falling after growth the day before. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $56.45 per barrel. At 23:30 (GMT+2:00), the API weekly crude oil stock will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.36%), #DIA (-0.82%), #QQQ (+0.02%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.72-2.73%.

The news feed on 05.03.2019:

• Statistics on economic activity in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT+2:00);
• The index of economic activity in the UK services sector at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
• ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
• New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
• Ivey PMI in Canada at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).