Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9895

Our preference Short positions below 0.9895 with targets at 0.9840 & 0.9825 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9895 look for further upside with 0.9920 & 0.9940 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.9895 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9840 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 111.05

Our preference Long positions above 111.05 with targets at 111.75 & 112.15 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 111.05 look for further downside with 110.75 & 110.35 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a rebound

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2670

Our preference Short positions below 1.2670 with targets at 1.2625 & 1.2605 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2670 look for further upside with 1.2690 & 1.2710 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1430

Our preference Long positions above 1.1430 with targets at 1.1485 & 1.1520 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1430 look for further downside with 1.1400 & 1.1375 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Late surge looking increasingly less likely

Another week draws to a close in the markets and as we approach the end of the year, it's looking increasingly unlikely that a late Santa surge is going to save what has been an otherwise horrible quarter.

Record highs to correction territory and flirting with a bear market – those that aren't already there that is – it really has been an extraordinary quarter that's got investors very concerned about the year ahead. The list of headwinds has been growing throughout the year and sentiment finally caved under the pressure of it all, with Powell's comments early October being the straw that broke the camel's back.

We've gone from undeterred optimism to widespread pessimism in such a short period of time – as is often the case – and there clearly isn't much appetite just yet to try and catch this particular falling knife. The Trump administration's continued hard-line approach with China isn't helping matters and the prospect of a government shutdown isn't doing the situation much good either.

Brexit on leave while Rome agrees budget with Brussels

With Brexit taking holiday over Christmas, we've got from headlines popping out thick and fast to trying to make sense of what's actually going on and how the next few months are likely to pan out. With there being numerous possible routes and some scenarios involving many of them – election, second referendum, no deal etc – predicting the outcome has become harder than ever. The only thing that looks guaranteed is that the pound is in for an extremely volatile first quarter. So no change there then.

Italy has provided us with some festive good cheer after Rome reached an agreement with Brussels on its budget for next year. The compromise removes one important risk factor for Europe and the government has been rewarded with yields on the country's debt falling sharply over the last month as both sides closed on a deal.

Gold rally continues as oil spirals out of control

Gold has been buoyed by another bout of dollar weakness over the last 24 hours, which has seen the yellow metal break through $1,260 before some profit taking kicked in. A more hawkish than expected Fed on Wednesday did little to deter bearish dollar traders – a list that has been growing as we head into 2019 – who still view another hike next year a coin toss, despite the central bank projecting two in the dot plot.

Oil is seeing some relief so far today but continues to suffer from investor gloom on the economy for next year. OPEC and its partners' efforts to stabilise and boost prices have so far failed miserably, with Brent and WTI remaining stuck in a downward spiral that's been even more vicious than what we've seen in equity markets. The sell-off started around the same time but with oil now off around 40%, it's been a rough ride for producers.

USDCAD keeps printing higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel, reaching fresh 1 ½ -year peaks at 1.3529 on Thursday. While the market looks to be approaching overbought territory according to the RSI, the MACD suggests that the rally is not over yet as the indicator continues to point to increased positive momentum above its red signal line.

On the upside, the upper bound of the channel seen around 1.3538 will attract significant attention as any decisive close above that mark could boost buying interest, with the pair probably scaling even higher to touch the 1.3600 key level. Should the latter fail to restrict the bulls, traders could look for resistance near 1.3792, the top of April 2017.

Alternatively, a move lower may stop around the middle of the channel, at 1.3425, while all eyes will be on the lower trendline at 1.3300 which if violated, could confirm the continuation of the negative mood. Before that, however, the price may retest the 20-day (simple) moving average (MA) currently at 1.3455 as it did in previous sessions. Below the channel, the door could open for the 1.3170 barrier.

Looking at the bigger picture, the break above 1.3385, the high on June 27, turned the outlook to positive, and with the 50-day MA picking up speed above the 200-day MA, it seems that the bullish phase is likely to continue.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3426; (P) 1.3466; (R1) 1.3518; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside. Rise from 1.2781 is part of the up trend from 1.2061 and would target 1.3685 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 1.3415 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 1.3164 support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, such rise is not clearly impulsive yet. And it could be the second leg of the long term corrective pattern that started at 1.4689. Hence, even in case of further rally, we'd be cautious on loss of momentum and topping above 1.3685. Nevertheless, in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2972) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Fall from 0.7393 is in progress for retesting 0.7020 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, break of 0.7203 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1383; (P) 1.1434; (R1) 1.1498; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside. Current rise from 1.1215 would target 100% projection of 1.1215 to 1.1472 from 1.1270 at 1.1527 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.1686 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.1364 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2605; (P) 1.2656; (R1) 1.2710; More....

No change in GBP/USD as it's staying in consolidation from 1.2476. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2811 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2476 will extend larger down trend from 1.4376 to 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3174 at 1.2114. However, firm break of 1.2811 will be an early signal of trend reversal and turn focus back to 1.3174 resistance.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should now target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.