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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.56; (P) 128.91; (R1) 129.57; More....

Break of 129.10 turns bias to the upside for more recovery. But after all, price actions from 127.49 are seen as a corrective pattern. And, near term outlook remains mildly bearish as long as 130.14 resistance holds. On the downside, below 128.24 minor support will target 126.63 support first. Break there will resume whole fall from 133.12 and target 124.08/89 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 130.14 will resume the rebound from 126.63 towards 133.12 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8824; (P) 0.8851; (R1) 0.8891; More...

Despite dipping to 0.8810, EUR/GBP quickly recovered and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8939 resistance will confirm completion of the fall from 0.9098 and turn outlook bullish for this resistance. On the downside, below 0.8810 will extend the fall from 0.8931 to retest 0.8655 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Sustained break of 0.8939 resistance will confirm that it's in a medium term rising leg for 0.9098 and above. And for now, in case of another fall, downside will likely be contained by 0.8620/55 support zone to bring rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5503; (P) 1.5570; (R1) 1.5624; More....

Breach of 1.5519 low suggests that fall from 1.6357 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, above 1.5633 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the consolidation from 1.5519 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5519 at 1.5839 to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1265; (P) 1.1291; (R1) 1.1321; More...

Near term outlook EUR/CHF remains mildly bearish as long as 1.1356 resistance holds. Rebound from 1.1173 should have completed already. Choppy decline from 1.1501 would extend to retest 1.1173 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.1356 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1501 again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1240) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3226; (P) 1.3293; (R1) 1.3345; More...

Upside momentum in USD/CAD remains unconvincing, as seen in the structure of the rise from 1.2781. In case of another rally, we'd be cautious on topping around 1.3385 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3187 support will argue that rise from 1.2781 has completed. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3127) first. Nevertheless, strong break of 1.3385 will confirm medium term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7242; (P) 0.7285; (R1) 0.7350; More...

AUD/USD rebounded strongly and focus is now back on 0.7314 key resistance. Sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7199 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD's decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.41; (P) 113.73; (R1) 114.00; More..

USD/JPY's break of 113.41 minor support indicates completion of rebound from 114.03. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 112.30 first. Break there will target 111.37 and possibly below. On the upside, above 114.03 will target a test on 114.54/73 key resistance zone. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9905; (P) 0.9956; (R1) 0.9986; More...

USD/CHF drops sharply after being rejected by 1.0006 minor resistance. But it's staying above 0.9908 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will resume the fall from 1.0128 to 0.9848 key support level. Break there will indicate near term reversal and target 61.8% at 0.9765. On the upside, break of 1.0006 will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9541 could have topped at 1.0128. But as long as 0.9541 support holds, we'd still expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9514 will pave the way back to 0.9186 low.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2795; (R1) 1.2876; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.2927 resistance will bring stronger rebound to 1.3071 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 1.2725 should extend recent fall to retest 1.2661 key support. After all, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Even in case of strong rebound, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1290; (P) 1.1341; (R1) 1.1417; More.....

EUR/USD rebounded strongly after hitting 1.1267 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Focus is now on 1.1472 resistance. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1302; h: 1.1215; rs: 1.1267). That will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 1.1814 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1267 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.