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GBPUSD Outlook: Strong UK Jobs Data Could Boost Recovery But Brexit Remains Key Driver
Cable bounces from new nearly two-week low at 1.2827, hit on Monday after the pair registered loss of 2.10% in past three sessions, on steep fall driven by increased Brexit concerns.
Today's recovery attempts were triggered by profit-taking and announcement from EU's chief Brexit negotiator who said that key points of divorce treaty are ready to present to the UK cabinet.
Fresh optimism drove the price higher but the action faced headwinds at 1.2900 zone and stays below, awaiting release of UK labor data for fresh signals.
Strengthening momentum on daily chart supports recovery and oversold slow stochastic also signaling corrective action.
Lift above 1.2946 (Monday's high/falling 20SMA) is needed to generate fresh bullish signal for extension towards upper pivot at 1.2980 (daily cloud base), firm break of which would neutralize existing bearish bias and shift focus higher.
Forecasts for today's UK jobs data are positive (Sep avg earnings f/c 3.0% vs 2.7% prev/Oct jobless claims 4.3% f/c vs 18.5K prev ), with releases above expectations to further boost recovery, however, focus will remain on Brexit talks which proved to be pounds key driver.
Res: 1.2946, 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3025
Sup: 1.2878, 1.2838, 1.2827, 1.2808
EURUSD Outlook: Bears Consolidate After Strong Fall On Monday, German ZEW Data Not Expected To Impact Overall Bearish Picture
The Euro holds in recovery mode in early Tuesday’s trading after suffering strong losses on Monday (down 0.9% for the day in the biggest one-day fall since 27 Sep).
Bounce from new multi-month low at 1.1215, posted on Monday, showed limited upside action as overall picture remains negative.
The story of Italy’s budget continues to weigh strongly on EURUSD pair, with additional pressure on interest rate divergence, bearish techs and persisting fears over US/China trade conflict.
German Oct CPI came in line with expectations, with immediate focus turning on German ZEW economic sentiment data (Nov -24.2 f/c vs -24.7 prev) which could boost recovery on better than expected release.
Overall picture remains bearish, suggesting limited recovery before bears re-take control.
Former key supports at 1.1300 zone now mark solid resistance, ahead of falling 10SMA (1.1351) which is expected to cap extended upticks and keep bears intact.
Res: 1.1257, 1.1300, 1.1315, 1.1351
Sup: 1.1215, 1.1186, 1.1109, 1.1075
USD/TRY Key Resistance At 5.4790
Pivot (invalidation): 5.4790
Our preference Short positions below 5.4790 with targets at 5.4400 & 5.4100 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 5.4790 look for further upside with 5.5150 & 5.5420 as targets.
Comment As Long as the resistance at 5.4790 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 5.4400 remains high.
USD/CAD Intraday Support Around 1.3210
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3210
Our preference Long positions above 1.3210 with targets at 1.3250 & 1.3270 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.3210 look for further downside with 1.3180 & 1.3160 as targets.
Comment A support base at 1.3210 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USD/CHF The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0075
Our preference Long positions above 1.0075 with targets at 1.0115 & 1.0135 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.0075 look for further downside with 1.0050 & 1.0030 as targets.
Comment A support base at 1.0075 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.










