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EURUSD (1.1678): The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading flat on Wednesday. Price action was seen stuck below 1.1730 resistance with brief attempts on an intraday basis. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD is seen trading slightly choppy as a result. The ranging price action could continue within the levels mentioned. A breakout from the range is however expected to set the direction in the trend in the near term.

The U.S. dollar pulled back on Wednesday amid a slight improvement in the emerging markets. Economic data was mostly quiet from the U.S.

Consumer prices in the UK advanced 2.7% on the year ending August 2018. This beat the median forecasts of a 2.4% increase. Core CPI also advanced 2.1% beating estimates of 1.8% increase.

Data from the U.S. saw housing starts rising at a modest pace last month. Housing starts rose 9.2% in August from the month before.

New Zealand's quarterly GDP report was released during the overnight trading session. The GDP advanced 1.0% during the three months ending June 2018. Economists were expecting a 0.8% increase during the period.

Later in the day, the Swiss National Bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting. The SNB is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged at today's meeting.

The UK will be releasing the retail sales figures for the month. Forecasts show a 0.2% decline in retail sales following a 0.7% increase the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the Philly Fed manufacturing index. Activity is expected to show the index rising to 17.5.

Firmer tone in European session after quiet trading in Asia resulted in fresh probe above 1.1700 handle, following multiple failure to close above here.

Upticks in past few sessions were capped just under 1.1733 (28 Aug high), leaving several daily candles with long upper shadows which confirms the strength of resistance zone.

Daily techs remain bullish as broken 100SMA holds dips and north-heading momentum supports the advance.

Also, weaker dollar on lower than expected tariffs the US and China imposed to each other and concerns that NAFTA talks between the US and Canada would result in no agreement this week, keeps the single currency supported.

Bulls need clear break above recent congestion and 1.1733 to signal continuation and expose next pivot at 1.1780 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2555/1.1300 descend).

Broken 100SMA offers initial support at 1.1663, with deeper dips expected to find ground above 1.1641 (converged 10/20SMA’s) and maintain bullish bias.

Res: 1.1724, 1.1733, 1.1750, 1.1780
Sup: 1.1663, 1.1641, 1.1616, 1.1578

Cable ticks higher in early European trading after trading within tight range in Asia on Thursday and probes again above key barriers at 1.3159/62 (falling 100SMA / Fibo 61.8% of 1.3472/1.2661).

Strong indecision is signaled by double Doji on Tue / Wed, as conflicting fundamentals on Wednesday (upbeat UK CPI/negative news about Brexit) kept near-term action in directionless mode.

Mixed techs, with strengthening momentum and slow stochastic heading south after reversal from overbought territory, add to mixed outlook.

Brexit talks are expected to remain one of key drivers, with focus turning towards UK retail sales data today.

Retail sales are expected to fall in August (m/m -0.1% f/c vs 0.7% prev / core m/m -0.2% f/c vs 0.9% prev), with release at / below consensus to weigh on sterling, while better than expected releases expected to provide fresh tailwinds.

Cable needs clear break above100SMA / Fibo barrier to signal continuation of recovery phase from 1.2661 (15 Aug low), after Wednesday’s probe above 100SMA and spike to 1.3214 high was short-lived.

Res: 1.3214, 1.3280, 1.3301, 1.3362
Sup: 1.3159, 1.3137, 1.3096, 1.3081

Pivot (invalidation): 6.2870

Our preference Short positions below 6.2870 with targets at 6.2265 & 6.1755 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 6.2870 look for further upside with 6.3290 & 6.3780 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7240

Our preference Long positions above 0.7240 with targets at 0.7275 & 0.7290 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.7240 look for further downside with 0.7220 & 0.7000 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2945

Our preference Short positions below 1.2945 with targets at 1.2900 & 1.2880 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2945 look for further upside with 1.2965 & 1.2985 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9660

Our preference Long positions above 0.9660 with targets at 0.9680 & 0.9700 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.9660 look for further downside with 0.9635 & 0.9610 as targets.

Comment A support base at 0.9660 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Pivot (invalidation): 112.35

Our preference Short positions below 112.35 with targets at 112.00 & 111.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 112.35 look for further upside with 112.45 & 112.60 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3170

Our preference Short positions below 1.3170 with targets at 1.3120 & 1.3100 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3170 look for further upside with 1.3215 & 1.3245 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 1.3170 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3120 remains high.