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The Meetings Of The Central Banks Are In The Focus Of Attention
Yesterday, the US dollar weakened against the currency majors. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session in the negative zone (-0.42%). This is due to the release of weak statistics. In August, the producer price index in the US fell by 0.1%. Experts forecasted the indicator at +0.2%. This report lowered the expectations of financial market participants regarding the increase in the key interest rate of the Fed in December this year.
Today, the meetings of the Bank of England and the ECB will be the key events. It is expected that regulators will leave interest rates unchanged. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the Central Banks. The escalation of trade conflict between the US and China continues. It became known that on Friday, the US President Donald Trump could impose new duties on imports of Chinese goods.
The "black gold" prices have started declining after the rapid growth at the beginning of this week. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $ 69.80 per barrel.
Market Indicators
Yesterday, the major US stock indices showed mixed results: #SPY (+0.02%), #DIA (+0.08%), #QQQ (-0.29%).
At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.96-2.97%.
The news feed on 13.09.2018:
Bank of England interest rate decision at 14:00 (GMT+3:00);
ECB interest rate decision at 14:45 (GMT+3:00);
Core consumer price index in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
GBPUSD Outlook: Falling Daily Cloud And Double-Doji Weigh On Bulls, BoE Eyed For Fresh Signals
Double long-legged Doji candles in past two days warn that bulls might be running out of steam as recent rally faces strong headwinds from falling and widening daily cloud (cloud base lays at 1.3060 today). Daily slow stochastic is reversing from overbought territory and creating bear-cross and 14-d momentum is turning lower, adding to negative signals. On the other side, daily MA's are in bullish setup and formed multiple bull-crosses, along with repeated close above 55SMA, offsetting stronger negative impact for now. Daily 55SMA marks initial support at 1.3012 and sustained break lower would generate initial negative signal, with extension and close below 10SMA (1.2957) to signal reversal. Conversely, penetration into daily cloud will be positive signal, with confirmation of bullish continuation seen on break above cloud top (1.3162) reinforced by Fibo 61.8% of 1.3472/1.2661 descend. Bank of England is holding its monetary policy meeting today, with expectations to keep rates at 0.75% after hike in August. The central bank will likely stay on hold until Britain leaves the European Union in March next year, but markets will be closely watching the message from the BoE for fresh signals. Brexit remains the main theme and despite the recent positive signals of reaching deal in coming weeks, Britain's economy remains at the back foot since 2016 Brexit vote, with rising concerns about the future trading relationship with the EU, which remains unclear.
Res: 1.3060, 1.3087, 1.3162, 1.3185
Sup: 1.3026, 1.3012, 1.2979, 1.2957
Crude Oil Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 70.50
Our preference Short positions below 70.50 with targets at 69.15 & 68.70 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 70.50 look for further upside with 70.90 & 71.25 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish. The prices are trading below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
Silver Spot Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 14.1500
Our preference Long positions above 14.1500 with targets at 14.3000 & 14.3800 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 14.1500 look for further downside with 14.0600 & 13.9900 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold Spot Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 1202.25
Our preference Long positions above 1202.25 with targets at 1208.50 & 1212.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1202.25 look for further downside with 1198.00 & 1192.50 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish
S&P 500 The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 2880.00
Our preference Long positions above 2880.00 with targets at 2898.00 & 2911.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2880.00 look for further downside with 2866.00 & 2854.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
DAX Target 12160.00
Pivot (invalidation): 11950.00
Our preference Long positions above 11950.00 with targets at 12095.00 & 12160.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 11950.00 look for further downside with 11880.00 & 11800.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.
AUD/USD The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7160
Our preference Long positions above 0.7160 with targets at 0.7210 & 0.7230 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7160 look for further downside with 0.7140 & 0.7125 as targets.
Comment The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
USD/CAD Key Resistance At 1.3040
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3040
Our preference Short positions below 1.3040 with targets at 1.2975 & 1.2935 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3040 look for further upside with 1.3075 & 1.3115 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50
USD/CHF The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9710
Our preference Short positions below 0.9710 with targets at 0.9675 & 0.9660 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.9710 look for further upside with 0.9730 & 0.9750 as targets.
Comment The RSI has broken down its 30 level.
