Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 15.3700

Our preference Short positions below 15.3700 with targets at 15.2300 & 15.1600 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 15.3700 look for further upside with 15.4800 & 15.5400 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 1214.00

Our preference Short positions below 1214.00 with targets at 1202.00 & 1200.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1214.00 look for further upside with 1220.50 & 1225.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1555

Our preference Short positions below 1.1555 with targets at 1.1525 & 1.1510 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.1555 look for further upside with 1.1570 & 1.1590 as targets.

Comment As Long as 1.1555 is resistance, expect a return to 1.1525.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.8895

Our preference Long positions above 0.8895 with targets at 0.8915 & 0.8925 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.8895 look for further downside with 0.8880 & 0.8865 as targets.

Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Pivot (invalidation): 7590

Our preference Short positions below 7590 with targets at 7225 & 7000 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 7590 look for further upside with 7790 & 7990 as targets.

Comment The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said in a BBC radio interview that the risk of no-deal Brexit is "a relatively unlikely possibility but it is still a possibility". And it would be "highly undesirable". He added that "the possibility of a no deal is uncomfortably high at this point."

In case of a no-deal Brexit, there would be disruption in trade, economic activity and higher prices for a period of time. He emphasized that "our job in the Bank of England is to make sure that those things don't happen. It's relatively unlikely but it is a possibility. We don't want to have people worrying that they can't get their money out."

Nonetheless, he also noted that the financial system is robust and "banks have the capital, the liquidity that they need and we have the contingency plans in place".

But he also said "the UK has taken all the steps, all the secondary legislation it needs to. The European authorities still have some steps they need to take. We're having conversations and we expect those to be addressed."

Cable remains in red on Friday and probes below psychological 1.30 support, in extension of strong fall on Thursday.

Pound was sharply lower on Thursday after the BoE increased interest rate by 0.25% but signaled that won't be in hurry for the next hike.

Today's break of 1.30 pivot was negative signal which could boosted if UK Services PMI fall below expectations (54.7 f/c for July vs 55.1 in June).

Weaker than expected UK data could further sour already weak sentiment, also boosted by strong Brexit concerns.

In addition, US jobs data may hit pound on solid figures in July, which could result in retest of key near-term support at 1.2957 (19 July low) and bear-channel support line (1.2908) in extension.

Stronger bearish acceleration would pressure next pivotal support at 1.2865 (Fibo 61.8% of larger 1.1930/1.4376 rally).

Daily studies in full bearish setup support the notion.

Alternative scenario on upbeat UK and weaker than expected US data would risk stronger bullish acceleration.

Falling 10SMA marks first strong barrier (1.3102), followed by 20SMA (1.3137) with close above here needed to sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.3027, 1.3082, 1.3102, 1.3137
Sup: 1.2985, 1.2957, 1.2897, 1.2865

Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 54.2 in July, revised down from 54.4. That compares to June's final reading of 55.2. PMI composite was finalized at 54.3, down 0.6 from June's 54.9.

Among the countries, Germany PMI composite was a 4-month high of 55.0. France PMI composite was at a 2-month low of 54.4. Spain PMI composite hit 56-month low at 52.7.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit said:

"The final PMI numbers confirm the euro area economy started quarter three on a softer footing. July saw rates of expansion in both output and new orders cede the momentum recaptured in the prior survey month, returning to a picture of sliding growth rates seen through much of the year-to-date. "If the headline index continues to track at its current level, quarterly GDP growth over the third quarter as a whole would be little-changed from the softer-thanexpected expansion of 0.3% signalled by official Eurostat data for quarter two.

"The outlook seems to be turning into a straight choice between the upturn being sustained at its current subdued pace or rising headwinds reining in growth further during the months ahead. On this front, downside risks are more prevalent, as the slower expansion in new order inflows during July was partnered by a tandem dip in business optimism to a 20-month low. Both are reflecting the uncertainty about global market conditions, especially given the ongoing rhetoric about trade wars and the potential spillover effects to the broader economy and to manufacturing in particular.

"Improved domestic demand may offset some of this in the near-term, but will need to strengthen further if it is to maintain that role. The faster growth seen in Germany, if sustained, should also help in this regard, especially if it can aid in reversing the weaker expansions seen in its eurozone partners such as France, Italy and Spain during July. However, given rising signs of slowdown and the current uncertain outlook, the ECB will likely maintain its cautious approach to policy at present."

The Euro holds in red for the fourth consecutive day, with fresh extension of Thursday’s strong fall on Friday, pressuring support at 1.1574 (19 July spike low).

Firm dollar on US/China trade war worries keep the Euro under increased pressure, which resulted in eventual break and close below triangle support, ending multi-week narrowing consolidation.

Thursday’s close below triangle support line (1.1633) and Fibo support at 1.1616 (61.8% of 1.1508/1.1790) were strong bearish signals.

Bearish studies on daily chart (MA’s in full bearish setup, growing negative momentum and strong pressure from thick daily cloud) support bearish scenario which could result in re-visiting key short-term support at 1.1508 (21 June low).

Meanwhile, the pair may move higher, in positioning ahead of key data, with broken triangle support line marking strong barrier, where upticks are expected to face strong headwinds.

US jobs data, due later today, are in focus, with releases in line with forecasts or better, expected to further boost the greenback and depress the single currency.

Forecasts for July show that US companies kept strong trend in hiring (193K vs 213K in June), with unemployment rate expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.0% and come closer to 18-year low of 3.8% (hit in May) and forecast for rise in average hourly earnings (0.3% f/c vs 0.2% prev).

Solid numbers today would confirm further tightening in labor market and signal that the US economy is getting more robust, which would pave way for rate hike in September.

Res: 1.1616, 1.1633, 1.1662, 1.1675
Sup: 1.1574, 1.1527, 1.1508, 1.1447

XAUUSD (1207.51): Gold prices extended strong declines on the day as price action fell below the support level of 1219. In the near term, gold is expected to trade sideways as it approaches the 1207 - 1204 region. The round number support at 1200 could keep the declines limited for the moment. Gold is expected to now trade within the range of 1219 and 1200 region. A breakout from this level could, however, set the stage for the near-term direction in price