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Switzerland’s Manufacturing Activity Surprisingly Advanced In July And Retail Sales Increased In June

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 0.9955.

On the data front, Switzerland's SVME manufacturing PMI unexpectedly advanced to a level of 61.9 in July, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 60.9. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 61.6. Moreover, the nation's real retail sales surprisingly climbed 0.3% on an annual basis in June, rising for the third consecutive month and compared to a revised gain of 0.4% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged real retail sales to record a flat reading. On the other hand, the SECO consumer confidence index dropped sharply to -7.0 in July, defying market expectations for a steady reading. In the prior month, the index had recorded a reading of 2.0.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9956, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9930, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9904. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9971, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9986.

Moving ahead, traders will await Switzerland's consumer price index for July, due to be released in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.18% against the CAD and closed at 1.3021.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3014, with the USD trading 0.05% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2993, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2973. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3037, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3061.

Going forward, investors will closely monitor Canada’s Ivey purchasing manager’s index, unemployment rate, building permits and housing starts, set to release next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Aussie Trading A Tad Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.58% against the USD and closed at 0.7363.

LME Copper prices declined 1.2% or $74.0/MT to $6063.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.6% or $13.0/MT to $2023.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7366, with the AUD trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that, Australia’s seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, compared to a similar rise in the prior month. Markets had anticipated retail sales to climb 0.3%. Meanwhile, the nation’s AIG performance of services index eased to 53.6 in July, following a level of 63.0 in the previous month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit services PMI index dropped to a level of 52.8 in July, less than market expectations for a fall to a level of 53.5. The index had registered a reading of 53.9 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7346, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7327. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7423.

Looking ahead, investors would keep an eye on the Reserve bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision, due to be released next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.71% against the USD and closed at USD1217.20 per ounce, amid strength in greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1216.20, with gold trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1210.27, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1204.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1226.07, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1235.93.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.58% against the USD and closed at USD15.34 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.31, with silver trading 0.20% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.23, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.15. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.43, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.56.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.61% against the USD and closed at USD68.92 per barrel, amid decrease in oil inventories at the domestic trading hub, Cushing, Okla.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 68.99, with oil trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 67.49, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 65.98. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 69.93, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 70.86.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2999; (P) 1.3020; (R1) 1.3045; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Corrective fall from 1.3385 could still extend through 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967 and possibly below. But we'd expect strong support from channel line (now at 1.2933) to complete the correction from 1.3385 and bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.3095 resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.3289 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2933) holds, we're holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7342; (P) 0.7377; (R1) 0.7399; More...

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7309 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 111.57; (R1) 111.83; More...

USD/JPY is staying in tight range between 111.24 and 112.14. Intraday bias stays neutral first. With 111.24 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Above 112.14 will target 113.17 resistance next. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 104.62 for 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.24 minor support might extend the corrective fall from 113.17 with another decline. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9927; (P) 0.9942; (R1) 0.9970; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral focus focus now on 0.9977 minor resistance. Break of 0.9977 will suggests that the pull back from 1.0067 has completed. And that will bring retest of 1.0067 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9866 will extend the fall from 1.0067 through 0.9856 to 0.9787 support. As price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we'd expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.