Sample Category Title
GBP/USD The Bias Remains Bullish
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3255
Our preference Long positions above 1.3255 with targets at 1.3325 & 1.3350 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.3255 look for further downside with 1.3200 & 1.3170 as targets.
Comment The next resistances are at 1.3325 and then at 1.3350.
EUR/USD Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 1.1720
Our preference Long positions above 1.1720 with targets at 1.1790 & 1.1825 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.1720 look for further downside with 1.1700 & 1.1675 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
EUR/GBP Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 0.8830
Our preference Long positions above 0.8830 with targets at 0.8860 & 0.8870 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.8830 look for further downside with 0.8820 & 0.8810 as targets.
Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.
Crude Oil Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 73.31
Our preference Long positions above 73.31 with targets at 74.46 & 74.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 73.31 look for further downside with 72.80 & 72.20 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Silver Spot Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 15.9400
Our preference Long positions above 15.9400 with targets at 16.1500 & 16.2200 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 15.9400 look for further downside with 15.8600 & 15.7500 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold Spot Supported By A Rising Trend Line
Pivot (invalidation): 1253.00
Our preference Long positions above 1253.00 with targets at 1261.00 & 1265.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1253.00 look for further downside with 1250.00 & 1248.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.
Bitcoin/Dollar As long As 6543 Is Support Look For 7048
Our pivot (invalidation) point stands at 6543.
Our preference As Long as 6543 is support look for 7048.
Alternative scenario The downside breakout of 6543 would call for 6349 and 6234.
Comment The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is below its 20 MA (6711) but above its 50 MA (6606).
USDJPY Outlook: Stands At The Back Foot But Stronger Direction Signal Is Required
The pair stands at the back foot at the beginning of the week, following strong upside rejection and close in red last Friday, as the greenback was hurt by weaker than expected US wage growth.
Today's action was so far held by rising 20SMA (110.37) which contained downside attempts in past three days and marks pivotal support, loss of which would generate fresh bearish signal for attack at key supports at 110.27/14 (04 July trough/200SMA).
Mixed daily techs need break of pivotal points to generate clearer direction signal.
Strong bearish signal could be expected on firm break below 200SMA while renewed strength above Friday's high at 110.78 would re-expose key near-term barrier at 111.13 (03 July high).
Res: 110.54, 110.78, 110.90, 111.13
Sup: 110.25, 110.14, 109.90, 109.63
GBPUSD Outlook: Pound Hits Three-Week High, Boosted By Relatively Soft Brexit, Weak Dollar
Cable hit new three-week high at 1.3350 in European trading on Monday, in fresh bullish acceleration after Brexit minister Davis resigned.
The pair started week with gap-higher opening on Monday, driven by news from the UK as well as weaker dollar, disappointed by US jobs data on Friday.
The latest news further boosted existing bullish sentiment, with growing bullish momentum and overall bullish techs underpinning the rally.
Bulls probe above top of rising weekly cloud (1.3330), eyeing next strong obstacles at 1.3404 (falling 55SMA) and 1.3410 (base of thick daily cloud), violation of which would expose key barrier at 1.3472 (07 June high).
Broken daily Kijun-sen (1.3260) should keep the downside protected and guard pivotal support at 1.3200 (rising daily Tenkan-sen).
Res: 1.3350, 1.3404, 1.3410, 1.3472
Sup: 1.3284, 1.3260, 1.3233, 1.3200
Three UK Government Ministers Resign Over The Latest Brexit Proposals
The UK’s Brexit Secretary David Davis has resigned along with two junior ministers, Steve Baker and Suella Braverman, over PM May’s latest softer Brexit proposals that were agreed at a cabinet meeting over the weekend. He said in a statement that his role requires an “enthusiastic believer” in May’s approach rather than a “reluctant conscript”. GBP reacted to the data during a period of lower liquidity with GBPUSD selling off a little from 1.33139 to 1.32846. The full impact of the move has yet to be priced in with the possibility that PM May now places a more “enthusiastic believer” in the role which could result in a shift in Brexit negotiations going forward. Alternatively this may result in a no-confidence vote and a leadership contest. All in all it is shaping up as an interesting week ahead in UK politics.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) came out with a number of 213K against an expected 195K from a prior 223K which was revised higher to 244K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in June which is up from the forecast with a higher revision. The Unemployment Rate (Jun) was 4.0% against an expected 3.8% with a prior of 3.8%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during June and is shown to be increasing.
Average Hourly Earnings (Jun) was 0.2% (MoM) and 2.7% (YoY) against an expected 0.3% (MoM) and 2.8% (YoY) from 0.3% (MoM) and 2.7% (YoY) previously. Labour Force Participation Rate (Jun) was 62.9% against an expected 62.7% from a prior reading of 62.7%. This data showed modest improvements and markets reacted positively to the headlines with the US 30 Index moving higher from 24281.90 to 24520.00 and EURUSD up from 1.17164 to 1.17669.
Canadian Unemployment Rate (Jun) was 6.0% against an expected 5.8% from a previous 5.8%. Participation Rate (Jun) was 65.5% against an expected 65.3% from 65.3% prior. Net Change in Employment (Jun) was 31.8K against an expected 24.0K from a prior -7.5K. Unemployment had fallen to the lowest levels in ten years and was settled around 5.8% but has risen 0.2% with this data. The Net Change in Employment data is showing a strong rebound, coming back into positive territory from under zero. Overall the report was positive as it showed more Canadians are working.
Canadian International Merchandise Trade (May) was $-2.77B against an expected $-2.05B from $-1.90B previously which was revised up to $-1.86B. This fell to miss the expected forecast. EURCAD moved down to 1.53334 but rebounded higher to 1.54409 after the data was released.
Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (Jun) was 63.1 against an expected 63.2 from a previous 62.5. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jun) was 65.1 down from 69.5 previously. The data dropped from the April reading which was the highest since 2011 at 71.5 and slipped under expectations. This data is showing robust growth, despite the fall as it is now at recent levels, continuing one of the longest positive runs with over 20 months above 50.0. USDCAD moved up from 1.31050 to 1.31177 after this data release.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts was released with a headline number of 863 up from last week’s 858 from 859 previously. Oil prices fell last week after a build in inventories following 3 weeks of bigger than expected draws. WTI Oil can become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday. WTI finished higher on Friday to close at $72.39.
EURUSD is up 0.21% overnight, trading around 1.17662.
USDJPY is up 0.02% in the early session, trading at around 110.742
GBPUSD is up 0.13% this morning trading around 1.33022
Gold is up 0.40% in early morning trading at around $1,259.66
WTI is up 0.17% this morning, trading around $72.54