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Trump reconsiders joining TPP, Japan FM Aso said he’s temperamental
Attention has turned to report that US President Donald Trump ordered White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to examine the benefits of re-entering the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. That sounded to be another 180 degree turn in Trump's position as withdrawing TPP was among the first things he did after taking office.
However, Trump himself tweeted today that "Would only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Pres. Obama. We already have BILATERAL deals with six of the eleven nations in TPP, and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years!"
Japan Finance minister Taro Aso also said that Trump "is a person who could change temperamentally, so he may say something different the next day". Aso also emphasized that "after the U.S. withdrawal, Japan, recognizing the significance of free trade, has led the initiative in pulling together the TPP 11." Aso would welcome US rejoining "if it's true" and hailed that "our efforts have borne fruit if the United States judged it would be better to rejoin."
Aussie Trading Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.06% against the USD and closed at 0.7755.
LME Copper prices declined 2.52% or $174.5/MT to $6756.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.44% or $32.5/MT to $2220.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7776, with the AUD trading 0.27% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, stated that households are coping with the financial stress, but warned that dangers still persist. Further, the central bank highlighted the risks of rising interest rates on domestic consumption and its implications on economic growth prospects.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7751, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7725. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7801.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Officials Expressed Fears Over Global Trade War And Strengthening Euro: ECB Minutes
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.33% against the USD and closed at 1.2328, after minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March meeting highlighted concerns around global trade conflict as well as the stronger Euro.
According to the minutes, officials expressed deep concerns over a full-blown trade war with the US and fretted over its potential impact on the global as well as Euro-zone economy. Further, the Governing Council noted lack of evidence to describe inflation as durable and self-sustaining. Additionally, minutes highlighted the central bank’s concern about the impact of a stronger Euro on the region’s inflation growth and the broader economy.
On the economic front, Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted industrial production registered an unexpected drop of 0.8% on a monthly basis in February, dipping for the third straight month and defying market expectations for a gain of 0.1%. Industrial production had registered a revised fall of 0.6% in the previous month.
The greenback advanced against its major peers, as geopolitical tensions eased after the US President, Donald Trump indicated that a military strike on Syria may not be imminent.
On the data front, the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits declined to a level of 233.0K in the week ended 07 April, after recording a reading of 242.0K in the prior week, while markets were expecting initial jobless claims to ease to a level of 230.0K.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2331, with the EUR trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2296, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2261. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.237, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2409.
Moving ahead, investors would look forward to Euro-zone’s trade balance figures for February as well as Germany’s final inflation numbers for March, both due to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US flash Michigan consumer sentiment index for April and JOLTs job openings data for February, both scheduled to release later today, will garner a lot of market attention.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Availability Of Unsecured Lending To Consumers Dropped To A Record Low During The First Quarter Of 2018: BoE Survey
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.36% against the USD and closed at 1.4231.
As per the Bank of England’s (BoE) Credit Conditions survey, the availability of unsecured credit to households dropped “significantly” in the first quarter of the year. Further, it indicated that the availability of unsecured credit expected to remain unchanged in three months to June.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4237, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.4173, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4109. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4274, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4311.
With no macroeconomic releases in UK today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
China trade balance Q1: EU imports surged 17.5% to $63.5b, US imports rose only 8.9% to $41.7b
China reported a rate trade deficit of USD -5b in March versus expectation of USD 27.8b surplus. That's also the first monthly trade deficit since last February. Imports rose 5.9% yoy while exports dropped -2.7% yoy. Trade surplus with US dropped to USD 15.3b. In CNY terms trade balance came in at CNY -30b deficit versus expectation of CNY 160b surplus. Imports dropped -9.8% yoy while exports also dropped -9.8% yoy.
For the quarter from January to March, 2018, China's trade surplus came in at USD 49.1b, dropped -23.2% yoy from Q1 of 2017. Exports rose 14.1% yoy. But import grew even stronger by 18.9% yoy. In CNY terms, Q1 trade surplus rose came in at CNY 326.2b with exports increased by 7.4% yoy and imports jumped even stronger by 11.7% yoy.
Also for Q1, export to US rose 14.8% yoy to USD 99.9b while imports from US rose 8.9% yoy to USD 41.7b. Exports to EU rose 13.2% yoy to USD 90.2b while imports from EU rose 17.5% yoy to USD 63.5b.
The EU is doing pretty well in selling the China.
Japanese Yen Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.38% against the JPY and closed at 107.23.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.38, with the USD trading 0.14% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 106.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.57. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.89.
Going ahead, investors would eye Japan’s inflation, trade balance and the tertiary industry index data, all slated to release next week.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Extends Its Losses This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.48% against the CHF and closed at 0.9622.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9625, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9587, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9550. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9654, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9684.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Canada’s New House Price Index Surprisingly Fell In February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.12% against the CAD and closed at 1.2590.
On the economic front, Canada's new housing price index unexpectedly eased 0.2% on a monthly basis in February, confounding market expectations for an advance of 0.1%. In the previous month, the index had recorded a flat reading.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2587, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2567, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2546. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2615, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2642.
Ahead in the day, traders would closely monitor Canada's existing home sales data for March.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 1.28% against the USD and closed at USD1338.30 per ounce, amid strength in the US Dollar.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1343.20, with gold trading 0.37% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1334.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1326.13. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1353.77, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1364.33.
The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Silver: White Metal Trading Higher In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.17% against the USD and closed at USD16.47 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.50, with silver trading 0.18% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 16.39, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.29. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.64, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.79.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.








