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Euro-Zone’s Manufacturing Sector Activity At A 4-Month Low In February, While Germany’s Manufacturing Sector Growth Weakest Since August 2017...
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.2280, following a slew of downbeat economic releases across the Euro-zone.
Data revealed that the Euro-zone's preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI dropped more-than-expected to a level of 58.5 in February, hitting its lowest level in 4 months. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a level of 59.6, while investors had envisaged for a fall to a level of 59.2.
Moreover, the region's flash Markit services PMI registered a 2-month low level of 56.7 in February, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 57.6. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a reading of 58.0.
Separately, growth in Germany's manufacturing sector cooled to a level of 60.3 in February, expanding at its weakest pace in 6 months. Market anticipation was for the PMI to ease to a level of 60.5, after registering a reading of 61.1 in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's services sector activity eased more-than-anticipated to a level of 55.3 in February, marking its slowest pace of growth in 3 months. The PMI had registered a level of 57.3 in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a drop to a level of 57.0.
The greenback advanced against its major peers, following upbeat minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) January meeting.
As per the minutes, officials painted an upbeat picture of the US economy and were increasingly optimistic on reaching their 2.0% inflation target over the medium term. Further, many officials upgraded their economic growth forecasts and pointed to the recent tax cuts as well as the improved global economic outlook as factors contributing to the US economic growth this year. Additionally, committee members shared the view that a strengthening economy supported future gradual interest rates hikes, while cautioning that the impact of the tax cuts is not yet clear.
Gains in the US Dollar were boosted further, after macroeconomic data revealed that activity in the US manufacturing sector recorded an unexpected rise to a level of 55.9 in February, accelerating by the most in over 3 years, thus highlighting a solid upturn in business conditions. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a level of 55.5, while market participants had expected for an unchanged reading. Moreover, the nation's services sector growth surged to a 6-month high level of 55.9 in February, beating market anticipations for a rise to a level of 53.7. the PMI had registered a level of 53.3 in the previous month.
Other economic data indicated that existing home sales in the US surprisingly eased 3.2% on a monthly basis to a level of 5.38 million in January, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 5.60 million. Existing home sales had registered a revised reading of 5.56 million in the previous month. Also, the nation's MBA mortgage applications fell 6.6% in the week ended 16 February, following a drop of 4.1% in the previous week.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2276, with the EUR trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2241, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2205. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2336, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2395.
Ahead in the day, traders would keep a close watch on the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting minutes as well as Germany's Ifo business climate and expectations indices for February. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims followed by the leading index for January, slated to release later in the day, would attract a lot of market attention.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK’s ILO Unemployment Rate Increased For The First Time In Nearly 2 Years In The Final Three Months Of...
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.3914, after UK's ILO unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the three months to December 2017.
Britain's ILO unemployment rate registered an unexpected rise to 4.4% in the October-December period, rising for the first time in nearly 2 years. Markets had anticipated the ILO unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%.
On the other hand, the nation's average earnings including bonus climbed 2.5% on an annual basis in the three months to December 2017, in line with market expectations. The average earnings including bonus had registered a similar rise in the September-November period.
In other economic news, UK's public sector net borrowing posted a more-than-anticipated surplus of £11.6 billion in January, compared to a revised deficit of £0.3 billion in the previous month. Markets were anticipating public sector net borrowing to report a surplus of £11.4 billion.
Separately, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, stated that interest rates may have to rise faster than initially expected in order to keep inflation in check, as domestic inflationary pressures are beginning to firm. However, Carney stopped short of offering any clarity on the timing of the next rate hike.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3911, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3870, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3828. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3981, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4050.
Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK's flash 4Q GDP numbers, due to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 107.73.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 107.33, with the USD trading 0.37% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 107.02, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.71. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.77, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.21.
Moving ahead, market participants would closely monitor Japan’s inflation figures for January, scheduled to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Trading Slightly Higher, Ahead Of Swiss Industrial Output Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 0.9391.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9389, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9355, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9322. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9410, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9432.
Going ahead, Switzerland’s 4Q industrial production data, set to release in a few hours, will be on investors’ radar.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading A Tad Higher, Ahead Of Canada’s Retail Sales Figures
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.37% against the CAD and closed at 1.2698.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2694, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2645, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2595. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2725, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2755.
This afternoon will bring a crucial Canadian economic release, namely the retail sales data for December.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.28; (P) 150.10; (R1) 150.79; More...
GBP/JPY's consolidation from 147.95 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook remains bearish with 151.19 resistance intact and deeper fall is still expected. Break of 147.95 will extend the fall from 156.69 and target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.07; (P) 132.56; (R1) 132.86; More....
With 133.38 resistance intact, near term outlook in EUR/JPY remains bearish. Sustained trading below 132.04 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 114.84 to 137.49 at 132.14) will indicate larger trend reversal on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper decline would be seen for 38.2% retracement at 128.38 first. However, rebound from 132.04 will retain near term bullishness. Break of 133.38 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.49 again.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD indicates loss of medium term upside momentum. Sustained break of 132.04 will be the early sign of long term reversal and should bring deeper fall back to retest 124.08 key support level. Meanwhile, break of 137.49 will resume the up trend from 109.03 to 141.04/149.76 resistance zone.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8801; (P) 0.8829; (R1) 0.8853; More...
EUR/GBP's sideway trading continues inside 0.8686/8928. Intraday bias remains neutral and deeper fall is mildly in favor with 0.8928 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.8686 will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too, deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 0.8928 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.9304 resistance.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5648; (P) 1.5697; (R1) 1.5788; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral. Also, with 1.5606 intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5494)
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1523; (P) 1.1541; (R1) 1.1551; More...
No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as consolidation from 1.1445 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.


