Sample Category Title

AUD/USD is weakening. Support stands at 0.7957 (23/01/2018 low) and is slowly nearing. The technical structure suggests further shortterm decrease.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD is rising back at the 1.23 range. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2520 (17/01/2018 high) while further resistance given at 1.2589 (01/01/2018) is momentarily out of reach. The technical structure indicates that additional weakness is achievable.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below 200 DMA.

USD/CHF is trading lower. The technical structure indicates that further weakness is likely. Hourly resistance is at 0.9449 (25/01/2018 high). Expected to show further short-term downside move.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support remains at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015

USD/JPY is rising following weakness and trades above 109.50. Hourly resistance at 109.77 (26/01/2018) is reached. The technical structure suggests further short-term upside move.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 107.32 (08/09/2017 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low).

GBP/USD is trading lower. The technical structure indicated further weakness. Hourly support is given at 1.3916 (23/01/2018 low).

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is now moving up to 2016 highs. A long-term support given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and a strong resistance at 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high) are identified.

EUR/USD is progressing. The pair is now retracing and lies well above 1.2325 (17/01/2018 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2223 (23/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2856 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

NFP could be the trigger

Yesterdays, FOMC meeting, and Yellen's final appearance as Fed Chair went broadly as expected. The Fed left interest rates unchanged but indicating that a March rate hike was on the table. The statement highlighted firming inflation and solid economic data. There were some minor tweaks in the statement language but nothing material. Yet, overall, the meeting was mildly hawkish. Income Fed chair Powell will likely take over where Yellen has left off. Hiking interest rates at his first meeting. Elsewhere ADP reported a 234k increase vs. 185k exp. in private employment during January. Today's payroll report could be the catalyst for USD corrective rally. Current explanation on why USD is so weak are unsatisfactory. US economic acceleration is out pacing expectations, with data consistently surprising to the upside. While talk of normalization at the ECB and BoJ are in infancy stage.

Despite the obviously improvement of the USD economic and political environment USD continue to be sold-off. With ADP suggesting significant upside in today's NFP 180 expectation. Tighter labor market will have investors increasing bets on a 4th interest rate hike. We are increasingly concerned about USD ultra-weakness and increased probably of a USD correction especially considering elevated us rates. CHF and JPY are the two currency we suspect USD could see big gains in the short-term.

Russian economy's first growth since 2014

Russia's economy is finally back on its feet. Having endured three years of economic downturn, Russia's Federal Statistics Service finally published 2017 Real GDP Y/Y at 1.50% that remain below expectations (consensus: 1.70%), two months before presidential. Following the announcement USD/RUB decreased by -0.54% and Russian 2 years and 10 years treasuries decreased by -0.39% and -0.77%. The end of the year appeared to be less fruitful with a clear shortfall in industrial production (November and December industrial production at -3.60% and -1.50% respectively) and a clear decrease in Russian's purchasing power for four years in a row (2017 inflation: 2.50%).

2015 and 2016 were difficult times for Russia who suffered from Crimea annexation in March 2014 and 2015 recession, essentially caused by the fall in energy prices and continuous trade tensions with EU and US economies.

Russian economy is recovering from recession and should, again, present clear signs of improvement in 2018, strongly supported by factors that have remained weak during previous periods and namely the energy sector that endured strong price and production decrease as well as weakened manufacturing sector that is now providing signs of resumption (December Markit Manufacturing PMI at 52.1).

The British pound has moved to a new weekly trading high against the greenback overnight, hitting 1.4278, as the dip buying theme in sterling continues. The GBPUSD pair is currently trading around the 1.4260 level, after finding strong buying interest around the 1.4200 region on Thursday. Traders may become cautious ahead of the upcoming release of the Non-Farm Payrolls Job Report, with the U.S economy expected to have created 180,000 new jobs during the first month of 2018.

The GBPUSD pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 1.4234 level, further buying towards 1.4300 and 1.4350 seems likely.

Should the GBPUSD pair start to trade below the 1.4234 level, a deeper decline back towards 1.4154 and 1.4122 remains possible.

The euro remains strongly bullish against the U.S dollar, with price-action now testing around the 1.2500 level after break above key trendline resistance, at 1.2470. Strong PMI Manufacturing data from the across the globe on Thursday helped to underpin risk-off sentiment in financial markets, encouraging euro buying towards 1.2500. The U.S dollar index is also suffering three-days of straight losses, as investors shrug-off hawkish rhetoric coming from Federal Reserve policymakers this week.

The EURUSD pair will likely extend gains while trading above the 1.2470 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 1.2538 and 1.2600 levels.

Should the EURUSD pair start to trade below the 1.2470 level for a sustained period, a decline towards 1.2432 and 1.2385 remains possible.

The pair maintains firm near-term tone on Friday and pressures barrier at 109.88 (50% retracement of 111.48/108.28 downleg / 4-hr cloud top / weekly 100SMA).

Fresh bullish acceleration is again above 10SMA (109.45) after yesterday’s probes failed to close above it.

Bulls need sustained break above 109.88 to signal further recovery which could stretch towards next pivots at 110.25 (Fibo 61.8% of 111.48/108.28) and 110.40 (falling 20SMA).

Underlying bears see risk of fresh downside after current corrective phase is completed with extended upticks to stay under 20SMA.

However, bullish signal is developing on weekly chart as the pair is on track for bullish weekly close, the first after three consecutive weeks in red.

Signal for stronger recovery action would be generated on close above falling 20SMA.

Conversely, repeated daily close below 10SMa will be negative signal and would keep the downside at risk.

US jobs data are due later today and expected to give more clues about dollar’s near-term performance.

Res: 109.88, 110.25, 110.40, 110.72
Sup: 109.45, 109.27, 109.03, 108.59