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Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.29; (P) 135.21; (R1) 135.89; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral but outlook stays bullish with 133.03 support intact. Break of 136.63 will resume medium term up trend. However, on the downside, break of 133.03 will have 55 day EMA and medium term channel support firmly taken out. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD too, that will suggest medium term reversal. Deeper fall should then be seen to 132.04 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). It should be targeting 141.04/149.76 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 132.04 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

The U.S. dollar's worst start in 21 years has reminded many investors of trade wars, particularly after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin commented about the benefits of a weaker dollar and the decision by President Trump to impose tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines.

However, these aren't the only factors that have contributed to the dollar's weakness. Traders across the globe are highly anticipating the end of stimulus from major central banks, including the BoJ and ECB. This has been reflected in sovereign and corporate bond markets where yields on more than $800 billion of debt moved into positive territory.

The rise in U.S. bonds yields are doing little to support the greenback, simply because yields elsewhere are also moving higher, but if spreads continue to widen, the dollar should begin attracting some inflows.

The week ahead will be a busy one, and focus will remain on the U.S. dollar. Mr. Trump will deliver his first State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday. Although he is highly likely to declare a victory over the tax overhaul, and how his actions boosted the American economy and stock returns, investors will be focused on any details surrounding the infrastructure bill, trade tensions, and border wall funding. So expect some volatility as he speaks.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave policy unchanged when it announces the rate decision on Wednesday. Given this is the last meeting Chaired by Janet Yellen, I don't expect much out of it. However, any tweaks in the statement may be slightly hawkish given that inflation expectations has risen to its highest levels since 2014.

If neither of these two events support the dollar, Friday's jobs report will be given a chance to do so. After a disappointing figure in December, markets are anticipating 175,000 non-farm payrolls have been added in January. Moreover, since the return of inflation is becoming a hot topic, wage growth will be under the traders' microscope once again. This is where we might see a surprise- driven by increased bonuses following the tax reforms.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8733; (P) 0.8759; (R1) 0.8798; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8928 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Firm break of 0.8686 support will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5254; (P) 1.5358; (R1) 1.5422; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Current development argues that fall from 1.5770 is not completed yet. On the downside, below 1.5259 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 1.5153. Break will target 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5770 so far suggests that it's corrective in nature. That is, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is building a bearish retracement within a potential wave 4 (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 could act as support levels for a continuation within the 3rd wave (pink). A break below the 50% Fib makes a wave 4 less likely.

The EUR/USD is building a corrective ABC (blue) pattern. A break above the resistance (red) could mark the continuation of the uptrend whereas a break below support (blue) could indicate a larger bearish correction.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD is also building a bearish retracement within a potential wave 4 (green). A break below the 50% Fib pf wave 4 vs 3 makes a wave 4 unlikely. The continuation of the uptrend seems likely if price is able to break above the resistance trend line (red).

The GBP/USD is challenging the 23.6% Fib level of wave 4 (green). A break below the support trend lines could see price challenge a deeper Fibonacci level such as the 38.2%. A break above the resistance trend lines could indicate an uptrend continuation.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY downtrend continued with a new lower low but price remains close to a strong support zone (green line) from the daily chart.

The USD/JPY is in a bearish trend channel. A bullish break above the channel could indicate the end of the downtrend whereas a break below the support zone (horizontal green) could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1561; (P) 1.1623; (R1) 1.1658; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1832 is seen as correcting rise from 1.0629. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372. On the upside, above 1.1684 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1832 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term should be in place at 1.1832. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 1.34% against the USD and closed at 0.8118 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 0.7% or $48.5/MT to $7063.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.02% or $0.5/MT to $2238.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.8093, with the AUD trading 0.31% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8046, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7999. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8138, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8183.

Moving ahead, traders would focus on Australia’s NAB business confidence index for December, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.2421 on Friday.

On the data front, consumer confidence in France unexpectedly fell to a level of 104.0 in January, against market anticipation for a rise to a level of 106.0 and compared to a reading of 105.0 in the prior month.

The US Dollar declined against its major peers on Friday, after preliminary estimates showed that the annualised gross domestic product (GDP) in the US expanded less-than-expected by 2.6% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2017, marking the slowest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2017, restrained by a widening trade deficit. The nation’s GDP had advanced 3.2% in the prior quarter, while market participants had envisaged for a rise of 3.0%.

Other data indicated that the nation’s flash durable goods orders grew 2.9% in December, rising by the most in 6 months and beating market expectations for a gain of 0.8%, thus underlining strength in the nation’s industrial sector. Durable goods orders had recorded a rise of 1.3% in the previous month. On the other hand, the nation’s advance goods trade deficit surprisingly widened to a nearly 10-year high level of $71.6 billion in December, compared to a revised deficit of $70.0 billion in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the country’s advance goods trade deficit to narrow to $68.9 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2419, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2371, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2324. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2480, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2542.

Amid a lack of key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would focus on the US personal income and spending data for December as well as the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for January, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.4152 on Friday, as better-than-expected UK GDP numbers added to the bullish mood amongst investors.

Data indicated that Britain’s flash gross domestic product (GDP) advanced more-than-estimated by 0.5% on a quarterly basis in the final three months of 2017, adding to the view that the economy has performed better than many feared in the wake of the Brexit vote. The nation’s GDP had climbed 0.4% in the prior quarter, while markets had expected for a rise of 0.4%.

Separately, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stated that the outcome of Brexit negotiations with the European Union (EU) would determine the path of interest rate hikes in UK over the next year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.4144, with the GBP trading 0.06% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4075, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4006. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4249, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4354.

With no macroeconomic releases in UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.82% against the JPY and closed at 108.70 on Friday.

The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD on Friday, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that inflation in Japan is finally close to the central bank’s 2.0% target, thus stoking speculation that the central bank could be tilting towards an early exit from its quantitative easing.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 108.69, with the USD trading a tad lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.54. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.43, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.16.

Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Japan’s jobless rate and retail trade data, both for December, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.