Even though the losses of EUR/USD were limited solely to 11 pips on Thursday, the pair made two massive leaps throughout the day. During the first one, the Euro started to appreciate during the ECB Press Conference when the lack of comments by Draghi about the strong currency was interpreted as a buying signal. Meanwhile, the rate edged in the opposite direction in the wake of Trump's comment about Greenback's upside potential in the future. The pair has managed to appreciate in the Asian session; however, it should not exceed the 1.25 mark. Given that the US is to release two sets of important fundamentals in this session, these releases are likely to guide the rate's subsequent direction. In case of strong bearish sentiment, the downside potential should be halted at the 200-hour located near 1.2250.

Despite strong signals of reversal, the Sterling managed to maintain its high position against the US Dollar on Thursday, as it was trading slightly below the 1.43 mark —its 1,5-year high—during most of the session. This still movement was disrupted by Trump’s comments on stronger US Dollar which sent the pair for a 117-pip hourly plunge. This fall was supported by the 55-hour SMA which allowed for a subsequent appreciation towards 1.4250. As apparent on the chart, the previously-drawn ascending channel still holds; however, its steep positioning points to a soon breakout south. By and large, this session should offer high volatility due to important data releases from both the UK and the US. A strong support should be provided by the 200-hour SMA, the 38.2% Fibo and the weekly R1 circa 1.3960.

The US Dollar was confidently moving lower against the Yen on Thursday prior to being boosted by Trump’s comments later in the session. As a result, the Greenback strengthened 88 pips and managed to push even higher for several hours after the event. This bullish sentiment was reversed during the Asian session when downside risks took the upper hand once again. The pair might slide lower within the following hours towards the lower boundary of a five-week descending channel circa 108.50 . However, the US is to release it Advance GDP and Core Durable Goods Orders at 1330GMT that are likely to cause volatility in the market. The southern side is supported solely by the weekly S3 at 108.90, while strong resistance is located near the 110.20 mark.

The first part of Thursday's trading session was relatively calm for Gold, as it was trading in a 1,365.00/1,353.00 range between the weekly R3 and the weekly and monthly R2s. This slight period of consolidation was disrupted by Trump's comments on stronger US Dollar which strengthened the American currency by 0.94%. This bearish momentum reversed in the Asian session, as the yellow metal was supported by the 100-hour SMA near 1,345.00. It is likely that the pair tries to re-located itself near the weekly R1 which is also a 2017 high. Meanwhile, the US is to release its Advance GDP and Core Durable Goods Orders at 1330GMT. In the event of sluggish data, the pair could remain near the 200-hour SMA at 1,340.00.

The Bull has taken over the AUD/CAD pair since December 2017. Since it touched the monthly pivot point support at 0.9599, the pair has been trading in a channel up and reached a new high level.

A new junior channel has been mapped, and the pair has tested the daily dominant channel's upper trend line. Overall, the AUD/CAD pair is likely to breach the weekly pivot point's resistance level at 1.0040.

In regards to the future trading, the pair is likely to continue bullish until it breaches the weekly PP, and afterwards there might be a temporary retracement to the south.

A review was made for the AUD/NZD pair, as previously drawn pattern was broken. The pair has been volatile since the last time it was reviewed.

The pair tested the 50.00 % Fibonacci retracement level and dropped back south. The bears continued to grow stronger and a new higher low has been formed. The retracement can be measured by connecting the high level of 1.1292 touched in October with the January low level of 1.0846.

The combination of 55-hour, 100-hour and 200-hour SMAs is providing support near 1.0944 mark. If this support holds, the pair is likely to breach the dominant channel upwards.

The Canadian Dollar showed a weak post-reaction against the Greenback, following the country's retail sales data. USD/CAD flustiated within the 1.2300-1.2320 range, until Donald Trump's comments caused an increase, temporary putting the pair above the 1.2360 level.

Canada's retail sales grew less than anticipated in November, as higher gasoline and electronics prices were restrained by weak new car purchases. Statistics Canada stated that retail sales rose 0.2% in November, less than economists anticipated, following the prior month's upwardly revised 1.6%. The expansion in volumes of retail sales over the course of both October and November is likely to imply that it would be stronger in the Q4 as a whole.

EUR/USD: ECB Interest Rate Decision

The Euro growth was muted against the Greenback on the ECB interest rate decision announcement. Though, the European single currency managed to reach the peak after the Bank’s President Mario Draghi stated that economic figures indicate solid and broad expansion with inflation likely to increase in the mid-term. The European Central Bank opted to keep the key interest rates at the same level with the quantitative easing programme remaining at €30B per month until September 2018, in line with market expectations.

From the US side, as the country’s President Donald Trump announced that he wanted stronger US Dollar, contracting the Treasury Secretary comments, EUR/USD fell back below the 1.2400 a few hours later.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.2466

The short-lived spike to 1.2537 was followed by a massive sell-off to 1.2360 and my outlook is bearish again below 1.2540, for another leg towards 1.2330.

USD/JPY

Current level - 108.96

A reversal has been confirmed at 108.50 and the bias is positive, for a break through the initial hurdle at 109.15, towards 110.20 resistance area.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.4228

Yesterday's second test of 1.4340 failed as well and the massive sell-off signals a broader consolidation pattern before renewal of the uptrend towards 1.4730. Intraday I favor a reversal of the rise from 1.4080 and another slide towards 1.4050 static support. Minor intraday support lies at 1.4190.

The pair came under renewed pressure on Friday and probes again below 109 handle, following short-lived recovery attempts, inspired by comments from President Trump, which stalled at 109.75.

Fresh weakness attempts to neutralize bullish signal from Thursday strong downside rejection (108.50) and positive close.

Bearish daily techs maintain negative bias with near-term action being capped by falling thick hourly cloud (cloud base is currently at 109.25 and will fall to 109.00 later today.

Bears need close below cracked Fibo 76.4% of 107.31/114.73 rally at 109.06 (after repeated failures on Wed / Thu) to generate stronger bearish signal.

Extension below 108.50 (Thursday's low) would confirm bearish continuation and expose initial target at 108.12 (11 Sep low) which guards key m/t support at 107.31 (08 Sep low).

Bullish scenario requires stronger recovery through key near-term barriers at 110.00 zone (hourly cloud top / daily Tenkan-sen) to generate stronger reversal signal.

US GDP data are in focus today and expected to provide fresh signals for the dollar. US economy is expected to have grown 3% in Q4, less than 3.2% in Q3 and 3.3% in Q2, but holding at high levels (near the highest in one year) which could be seen as positive signal).

Upbeat US GDP numbers today would offer fresh support for the greenback and possibly spark stronger recovery, while release below 3% would put dollar under fresh pressure.

Res: 109.76, 110.00, 110.15, 110.30
Sup: 108.90, 108.50, 108.26, 108.12