Sample Category Title

USD/CAD continues to move higher within uptrend channel. Strong support is located at a distance at 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Resistance is given at 1.2663 (31/08/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF is trading higher within short-term uptrend channel. Demand has been increasing since September. Closest resistance is given at 0.9808 (30/05/2017 high). There are nonetheless decent downside risks. Strong support is given at 0.9421 (03/05/2017). Expected to show continued bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has failed to hold above former resistance given at 113.26 (27/09/2017 low). Support is located at 111.99 (16/10/2017 low). Downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD is consolidating higher within downtrend channel. The pair lies in a downtrend channel since the pair has topped 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high). Expected to bounce back lower around 1.3200. Wide-open for further decrease.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is way into a bearish trend. Yet, short-term bullish momentum currently increases. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.1834 (11/10/2017 high). Strong support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show some weakness as long as the pair remains below 1.1800.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low)

Weekly 


  




•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star 
   




•    Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017 
   
 



•    Trend bias: Down


 





Daily





•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern 
   




•    Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017 
   
  



•    Trend bias: Near term down
 






AUD/JPY - 89.05





Despite recovering to 88.70, renewed selling interest emerged and aussie has slipped again since, dampening our bullishness and suggesting a temporary top has possibly been formed at 90.30, hence consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 86.72) but a daily close below support at 86.60 is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of early upmove to 86.30-35 and possibly towards 86.00, having said that, support at 85.70 should remain intact, bring rebound later.

On the upside, whilst recovery to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 88.00) cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 88.44) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Only above resistance at 88.70 would defer and suggest the first leg of decline from 90.30 top has ended, risk a stronger recovery to 89.00 and possibly towards 89.65-70 but price should falter below said resistance at 90.30, bring another leg of corrective decline later this month.

Recommendation: Exit long entered at 88.10 and sell at 88.20 for 86.20 with stop above 89.10


On the weekly chart, aussie’s retreat after rising to 90.30 last month suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 86.70-75 and possibly towards support at 85.70, however, only a drop below support at 85.45 would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 84.95-00, then test of the upper Kumo (now at 83.75 also previous support level) which is likely to hold and price should stay above support at 82.55-60, bring rebound later.

On the upside, although initial recovery to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 88.00) cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 88.20-30 and resistance at 88.70 should hold, bring another decline later. A weekly close above 88.70 would risk rebound to 89.40-50 but still expect upside to be limited to 89.65 and price should falter below resistance at 90.30, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said resistance at 90.30 would extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 90.70 and possibly towards 91.50-60 but price should falter below another previous chart resistance at 92.70, bring correction later.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1766

The intraday bias here is positive, for a break through 1.1785 hurdle, for a tight test of 1.1830 major resistance. Crucial on the downside is 1.1720.

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.66

The bias remains bearish below 112.90, for a violation of 112.30, towards 111.50 major support.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3155

My outlook remains positive above 1.3100 area, for a rise towards 1.3220 area. 

The Euro continued to appreciate against the Dollar, as expected. The reason behind the surge was related not only to combined support formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP, which the pair used as a trampoline, but also to the fact that Catalonia signed but immediately suspended declaration of independence to bargain with Madrid. Accordingly, in the first half of the day the currency rate is expected to test a resistance located near the 1.1830 mark. Historically, this area proved to a significant barrier for the pair. From this perspective, there is a chance that it would halt the soar and make a short term rebound. In the meantime, there is a need to take into account an effect from the FOMC meeting, which is likely to strengthen the Dollar.

Due to release of better than expected data on the UK manufacturing production, the pair continued to climb to the top and even managed to bypass the 1.32 mark. However, then the surge was neutralized by the 200-hour SMA, which forced the rate to start moving in the opposite direction. To certain extent, this turnaround was related to anticipation of the Fed Meeting Minutes, which is expected to show a hawkish stance on interest rate hike in December. Before this event, the currency rate is unlikely to make major advances in southern direction, as it is protected by a bunch of technical indicators, such as the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. But then traders’ reaction might push the pair to a zone near the 1.3110 mark.

Another test of another North Korean ballistic missile expectedly led to sharp depreciation of the Dollar against the Yen. During the downfall the pair crossed the weekly S1 at 112.19, which was the only support barrier on its way. However, this active selling had a short term effect, as by the end of the day the buck traders managed to restore lost positions and return the rate back to the 112.50 level. Because of the Fed Meeting Minutes traders with bullish sentiment most probably are going to try to push the pair to the top. However, even in case of hawkish comments it would not be easy, as northern side remains protected by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs plus the weekly PP at 112.81. In addition to that, the North Korean problem hasn’t gone anywhere.