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USD/JPY is still lying into a bullish momentum despite ongoing consolidation. Strong support is located at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). The pair is way into a bullish trendh. Yet, downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD is pushing lower after topping at 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.3155 (14/09/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures within downtrend channel.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is way into a bearish trend. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.2092 (08/09/2017 high) while hourly support lies at 1.1823 (31/08/2017 low) has been broken. Stronger support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

EURUSD

The EURUSD continued its bearish correction momentum last week bottomed at 1.1717 but closed higher at 1.1816. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My major technical outlook remains bullish but price is still in a bearish correction phase. Immediate support is seen around 1.1770. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1700 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1823/50. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.1935 which need to be clearly broken to the upside to potentially end the current bearish correction phase. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.1700 would expose 1.1600 region.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD continued to trade lower last week, hit a fresh two-week low at 1.3342. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall I remain bullish and 1.3400 – 1.3330 support area remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss below 1.3330 as a clear break below that area would take price to a bearish correction zone testing 1.3150 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3455. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3515 – 1.3570 region but key resistance remains at 1.3615.

USDJPY

The USDJPY was indecisive last week but overall still able to maintain its bullish H1 chart bias which started after a false break below 107.50 four weeks ago and hit a fresh four-week high at 113.25. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 113.50 area. On the downside, 112.35 – 111.65 area remains a key support and good place to buy with a tight stop loss below 111.65. Overall I remain neutral.

USDCHF

The USDCHF was indecisive last week. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 0.9769 but closed lower at 0.9677 after a rejection to break above the daily EMA 200 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 0.9650 area. On the upside, 0.9765 – 0.9807 remains a key resistance and good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Overall I remain neutral.

WTI oil stands at the back foot on Monday and threatening of further downside, but near-term price action so far remains limited by rising 10SMA. Oil price eases from fresh multi-month high at $52.84, posted after three straight weeks of strong rally, driven by increasing signs that effects of global oversupply that last for three years are easing. Corrective action is seen as likely scenario, however, dips were so far mild as strong bullish setup of daily studies and positive sentiment is building up. Risk of deeper pullback would remain low while the price stays above rising 10SMA which could result in renewed attempts higher. Otherwise, deeper correction towards psychological $50.00 support (Fibo 38.2% of $45.57/$52.84/rising 20SMA) could be expected on sustained break below near-term base at $51.20 zone.

Res: 51.75, 52.41, 52.84, 53.00
Sup: 51.20, 50.41, 50.00, 49.54

Spot Gold hit fresh 7-week low at $1271 on Monday, on fresh bearish extension that penetrated into rising daily cloud (spanned between $1278 and $1258) and cracked support at $1272, provided by 100SMA.

The yellow metal remains in downtrend from $1357 (08 Sep peak) which eyes supports at $1267/63 (15 Aug trough / Fibo 61.8% of $1204/$1357 ascend) and could extends to $1258 (daily cloud base).

Bears might be delayed for consolidative / corrective actions on oversold slow stochastic on daily chart, with no firmer bullish signals seen so far.

Solid resistances lay at $1278/80 (broken cloud top / session high) guarding Friday’s high / 55SMA at $1290 and falling daily Tenkan-sen at $1293.

The latter is expected to cap extended corrective upticks.

Res: 1278, 1280, 1290, 1293
Sup: 1271, 1267, 1263, 1258\

Traders have simply ignored the Catalonian referendum
Spanish economic data may start to see the footprints of upcoming strikes
Investors are busy in factoring the prospects of the dovish Fed

US futures are trading higher as traders have simply ignored the Catalonian referendum (it was called an illegal referendum by the biggest court of Spain). Regardless of its legality, 90 percent of Catalonians have voted for their independence and it is this number which matters the most. We do think that the market is underestimating this risk but traders aren’t paying any attention to this because the game hasn’t changed immediately.

The Catalonian leaders have taken their unilateral action further by opening the door for independence. Over 700 people were injured due to this referendum and now the declaration of independence would only call for more trouble for the Spanish Prime Minister Mr Rajoy. His ultimate goal would be to keep the country united and open the discussion process with other party leaders to avoid any further tumultuous conditions in the country.

The next effect on the euro is negative due to the Catalonian situation and this dragged the currency lower. However, we are not experiencing any meltdown and this is mainly due to the reason that investors are not overly concerned about another debt crisis in the Eurozone due to the Carolinian independence. The chances of such independence to see the daylight are very remote, despite the party leaders would try to push the results of the referendum in the Catalonian parliament.

Having said that, such conditions would undermine investor confidence and it is more than likely that the Spanish economic data may start to see the footprints of upcoming strikes. For the time being, investors are not asking for any major premium for the Spanish bonds as the cost is much lower as compared to the year 2012 when the Eurozone crisis was at its peak.

The Japanese Tankan survey showed that the weakness in the Japanese yen has helped the data. The data was solid and printed the reading 22. It confirms that the business confidence amid bigger manufacturers has improved because of the same reading for the month of June near enough 17. Any weakness in the Japanese yen would further help the Japanese economy. What matters the most is that the Japanese growth has improved and it needs to continue this trend.

As for the US dollar, investors are still busy in factoring the prospects of the dovish Fed and how the tax reform could help the US economy. President Trump would soon have to announce who would chair the Federal Reserve Bank and many do think that he may favour someone who would take a more aggressive approach towards the monetary policy. This very fact is supporting the dollar and we think the dollar is about to get a little stronger especially if Trump appoints a hawkish head for the Fed, and the sterling looks vulnerable.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair fell for a third consecutive week, ending it a 1.1814 and after trading as low as 1.1716. The common currency took a dive at the beginning of the week as a result of Angela Merkel's sour victory in the German election, which brought back concerns about rising anti-global populism within the EU. An upward corrective movement that begun on Thursday was fueled on Friday by soft US data, as the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE index for August missed market's expectations. Consumer inflation rose by 0.1% in the month, matching July's reading, but below forecast of 0.2%, while when compared to a year earlier, it came in at 1.4%, below the expected 1.5%. Also, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 1.7 points in September to 95.1, on concerns about the economic consequences of the latest hurricanes that hit the US. Limiting EUR's advance was worst-than-expected inflation in the area, as preliminary September estimate fell to 1.1% YoY from previous 1.3%.

The pair's decline seems still corrective in the long-term, as it´s down around 300 pips after rising roughly 1500 pretty much straight since bottoming around 1.0600 last April, and despite the latest recovery, it could extend during the upcoming days, as the pair was unable to recover beyond August bottom in the 1.1820/30 price zone. In the daily chart, technical indicators have bounced from near oversold levels, but remain within bearish territory, indicating that selling interest is limited, although the price is well below a bearish 20 SMA, around 1.1920. The pair managed to correct half of its weekly losses, with the 50% retracement of the decline at 1.1825, converging with the mentioned lows. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents an upward potential yet to be confirmed, as the price recovered above a now flat 20 SMA, the RSI indicator holds directionless around its mid-line, and the Momentum indicator aims north near overbought levels.

Support levels: 1.1765 1.1720 1.1690

Resistance levels: 1.1830 1.1870 1.1920

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair closed the week barely higher at 112.51, undermined on Friday by poor US consumer inflation figures, which limited dollar's ability to extend its gains against the safe-haven yen. Gains in stocks and higher US Treasury yields, however, kept the Japanese currency under pressure. US treasury yields settled near fresh 11-week highs, with the 10-year note benchmark closing on Friday at 2.33%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq closed at record highs. The macroeconomic week will start with Japan releasing the Tankan manufacturing index survey for Q3, expected to show a modest improvement in activity during this last three months. Technically, the daily chart for the pair shows that it holds on to gains beyond its 100 and 200 DMAs, while technical indicators corrected overbought conditions, to turn flat well above their mid-lines, indicating that, despite the absence of upward momentum, bulls maintain the lead. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the lack of directional strength all through the week left technical indicators within neutral territory, but the risk remains towards the upside, as the price held well above a bullish 100 SMA, now around 111.10.

Support levels: 112.20 111.85 111.50

Resistance levels: 112.90 113.25 113.60

GBP/USD

The British Pound remained under pressure this past week, ending it against the greenback at 1.3398, as news coming from the UK on Friday were overall negative. BOE´s Governor Carney said that interest rate hikes in the future will be limited and gradual if they happen, pretty much freezing expectations of a change in the economic policy for this year. Also, UK's final Q2 GDP remained unchanged at 0.3% for the three months to June, but the year-on-year figure was downwardly revised to 1.5% from an initial estimate of 1.7%. In the meantime, Brexit negotiations are going nowhere: during the weekend EU Junker claimed that there will be no sufficient progress by the end of October "unless miracles would happen." The political uncertainty alongside with an on-hold BOE should limit Pound attempts to regain the upside. From a technical point of view the daily chart shows that the weekly decline stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the latest upward move, at 1.3340, now converging with the 50% retracement of the same rally and a bullish 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the same chart hold above their mid-lines, with the Momentum trying to recover ground, but the RSI maintaining its bearish slope, this last leaning the scale towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, however, the pair presents a neutral-to-bearish stance, as the pair remained limited below a bearish 20 SMA for most of the week, but technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. A bearish acceleration through the 1.3340 support, should lead to a downward extension towards 1.3250 the next relevant static support.

Support levels: 1.3340 1.3300 1.3250

Resistance levels: 1.3410 1.3460 1.3510

GOLD

Spot gold ended September at $1,280.02 a troy ounce, as hopes that the Fed will remain in the tightening path, despite sluggish inflation, maintained market's mood up, with stocks rising to record highs to the detriment of the safe-haven metal. Gold was down roughly 3% in September after hitting at the beginning of the month its highest for this 2017, at 1,357.49, although declines were limited amid geopolitical tensions surging here and there. The negative bias remains firm in place, given that in the daily chart, the price remains well below a bearish 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators remain well into bearish territory, aiming to turn south after a period of consolidation. In the same chart, the 100 DMA stands at 1,274.56, and while directionless, the indicator is a key psychological support, with a break below it probably fueling the negative sentiment towards the metal. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the risk is also towards the downside, with the 20 SMA accelerating south above the current level, and the RSI also showing a strong downward slope, currently at 35.

Support levels: 1,274.55 1,267.20 1,256.70

Resistance levels: 1,283.10 1.294.25 1,303.95

WTI CRUDE OIL

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures closed little changed on Friday at $51.62 a barrel, as an increase in the number of US rigs drilling for oil was offset by concerns over decreasing supplies from the Kurdish region of Iraq. According to Baker Hughes, the number of active rigs drilling for oil increased by 6 this past week to 750, after falling four of the previous five weeks. The commodity holds anyway near the multi-month high reached this past week at $52.84, amid strong compliance from OPEC and non-OPEC producers with the output cut deal signed last November. US crude lost upward momentum during these last couple of days, but the daily chart indicates that the bullish trend persists, as in the daily chart, technical indicators have barely corrected from overbought readings, but the RSI indicator turned horizontal around 66, whilst the price remains far above its 100 and 200 DMAs. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the commodity presents a neutral-to-bullish stance, with technical indicators now heading nowhere around their mid-lines, whilst the price remains far above its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest accelerating above the largest.

Support levels: 51.20 50.50 50.00

Resistance levels: 51.90 52.35 52.70

DJIA

US indexes surged on Friday with the Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P ending at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average not far below its own. This last, added 23 points, to close at 22,405.09 fueled by a hawkish Fed and President Donald Trump’s tax cut proposal . Adding to the positive tone of equities were news that Trump interviewed Fed´s Jerome Powell and Kevin Warsh, as possible candidates to replace Janet Yellen as head of the central bank, both seen as hawkish and more inclined to raise rates. Most members were up within the Dow, with Cisco Systems leading advancers with a 0.84% gain. Nike on the other hand, was the worst performer, down 1.48%, followed by Wal-Mart that lost 1.03%. The daily chart for the DJIA indicates that the bullish tone remains firm in place, with the index near its record high and above all of its moving averages, while technical indicators resumed their advances within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the index presents a neutral-to-bullish stance, with the index finding buying interest on approaches to a modestly bullish 20 SMA, but with technical indicators holding directionless above their mid-lines.

Support levels: 22,353 22,318 22,258

Resistance levels: 22,425 22,460 22,500

FTSE100

The FTSE 100 gained 50 points on Friday to close at 7,372.76, down for September but off its monthly low. A weaker Pound helped the index recover ground in the last two weeks, while at the end of this past week, worst-than-expected GDP data exacerbated Sterling's decline. Miners were among the best performers, as despite gold's decline, most base metals ended the month on a higher note. The best performer was ITV that added 3.56%, followed by Anglo American and Antofagasta that added over 2.0% each. Hargreaves Lansdown led decliners, down 1.14%. The daily chart for the Footsie shows that, while the bearish pressure has eased, the index is still far from entering bullish territory, as it closed below its 100 DMA, while the Momentum indicator remains within negative territory. The index also settled above a still bearish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI aims higher around 54, limiting chances of a steeper decline for the upcoming days. In the 4 hours chart, the index was unable to advance beyond a marginally bearish 200 SMA, but established above a bullish 20 SMA, also above the 100 SMA, while technical indicators consolidate well above their mid-lines supporting additional gains ahead on a break above 7,383, Friday's high and the immediate resistance.

Support levels : 7,354 7,312 7,282

Resistance levels: 7,383 7,422 7,461

DAX

European equities surged on the last trading day of the month, with the German DAX closing at 12,828.86, up 125 points or 0.98%, its highest in three months. A solid macroeconomic recovery in the region, coupled with a cheaper EUR and optimistic markets over US economic and monetary policy future, helped indexes advance sharply this past week. Bayer was the best performer on Friday, up 2.35%, followed by E.ON which added 2.35%, whilst just five members closed down, led by Merck that shed 3.43%. The German benchmark retains its bullish tone heading into the new week according to the daily chart, with the 20 DMA advancing above the 100 DMA, and the RSI indicator heading north within overbought readings, currently at 73. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the risk is also towards the upside, as the index is far above all of its moving averages, whilst technical indicators have barely pared their advances within overbought territory.

Support levels: 12,796 12,752 12,710

Resistance levels: 12,847 12,881 12,933

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1737

The resistance at 1.1830 has capped the upside and my outlook is bearish, for a break through 1.1715 low, towards 1.1660 and 1.1480.

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.99

The bias is positive, for a rise towards 113.80, en route to 114.50 peak. Initial support lies at 112.15 and crucial on the downside is 111.50.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3324

The recent test at 1.3460 failed and the outlook is bearish, for a slide towards 1.3220 zone. Initial intraday resistance lies at 1.3350.

The Aussie probes again through strong supports at 0.7800 zone (daily cloud base / 15 Aug former low) as Monday's action stands firmly in red and extends weakness from last Friday.

Close below daily cloud will be strong bearish signal for extension of bear-leg from 0.8102 (also the third wave of five-wave cycle from 0.8124 peak) towards its FE 176.4% at 0.7777 and 100SMA at 0.7766, with extension towards 0.7733 (FE 200%) seen on break of the latter.

Oversold daily studies warn of correction which may result in hesitation ant 0.7800 pivot.

Session high at 0.7847 marks initial resistance, followed by last Thursday's high at 0.7860.

Top of daily cloud marks key near-term barrier at 0.7811.

Focus is on tomorrow's RBA interest rate decision, with the central bank expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.5%.

Res: 0.7820, 0.7847, 0.7888, 0.7911
Sup: 0.7795, 0.7777, 0.7766, 0.7733