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The pair has dropped a little today and continues to pressure the 250% Fibonacci line (descending dotted line). It could still retest the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork, actually, is attracted by the confluence area formed between the ML and the 250% Fibonacci line. A valid breakdown through the confluence area will accelerate the sell-off, while a rejection will bring us a good opportunity to go long again.

The currency pair increased in the morning and tries to resume the yesterday’s bullish candle. Has retested an important dynamic support and is somehow expected to climb higher after the corrective phase.

We’ll see what will happen because technically a breakdown was favored after the failure to close above a major resistance area.

The economic calendar is filled with high impact data, so the price will be driven by the fundamental factors today, you should be careful not to suffer a heavy loss.

The German Retail Sales could increase by 0.5%, less versus the 0.6% in the previous reporting period, while the German Unemployment Change could remain in the negative territory, at -5K for the second month in August. Moreover, the CPI Flash Estimate is expected to increase by 1.6%, more versus the 1.5% in the former reading period, while the Core CPI Flash Estimate may increase by 1.2%.

The price failed to break below the confluence area formed at the intersection between the WL4 and the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork, signaling a rebound. EUR/CHF retested the upper median line (uml) of the minor ascending pitchfork.

A breakdown was somehow expected after the false breakout above the WL3 and above the WL5. We’ll see what will happen in the upcoming days because the failure to reach the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork announces a bullish momentum towards the upper median line (uml) of this pitchfork.

Greenback Dips Despite Upbeat Data. Even though the most of U.S. data numbers were in the green, underscoring the odds of more Fed tightening moves down the line, the dollar happened to be the worst-performing currency for the day, as investors looked to take profits on the greenback’s rally this week ahead of the end of the quarter.

Aussie Bounces After Steep Fall. The Aussie suffered a steep sell off following proposed changes to both private and corporate tax systems by U.S. president Donald Trump. Having found support at 0.78 the Aussie rallied into the close as profit taking and quarterly position management forced a correction in the USD. Attentions now turn to next Tuesday’s RBA rate announcement and monetary policy statement for further direction and guidance on monetary policy divergence. As we watch key support at 0.78, a break and consolidated close below this threshold could signal a shift in short term ranges.

Loonie Higher as US Dollar Rally Loses Steam. The Canadian dollar gained on its U.S. counterpart, after earlier touching a four-week low, helped by steadier oil prices. The currency pair is trading at 1.2430 as the boost from the Fed and President Trump’s short lived tax plans, mounting a comeback ahead of GDP data later in the day.

Gold Rebounds from 6-Week Low, Silver Bounces Higher as US Dollar Drops. The gold price was up 90 cents to US$1,288.70 an ounce. Gold has rebounded above a six-week low, as the US dollar has turned lower and ushered in short-covering. Bullion was earlier pressured on proposed US tax reforms and strong economic data that supported the case for another US interest rate hike this year. Silver rose to as high as $16.892 and ended with a gain of 0.54%, while copper climbed five cents to US$2.98 a pound.

Oil Dropped Over 1% on Profit Taking, But Retains Grip on Monthly, Quarterly Gains. Oil prices finished lower Thursday, pulling back after hefty month-to-date gains as traders take positions ahead of the conclusion of the third quarter. Crude oil fell 58 cents to US$51.56 per barrel, Brent crude shed 49 cents to $57.41 a barrel ahead of the contract’s expiration at Friday’s finish, natural gas gave back four cents at US$3.02 per MMBtu.

Watch Out Today for:

08:00 am GMT: EUR Unemployment Change (Sep)

09:00 am GMT: EUR Consumer Price Index

12:30 pm GMT: USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index

14:15 pm GMT: EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech

14:45 pm GMT: GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4940; (P) 1.5007; (R1) 1.5065; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation continues in range of 1.4791/5173. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD bounced at the 23.6% Fibonacci support level of wave 4 (blue). Price broke above the steep trend line (dotted orange) and could be ready to test the resistance levels at 1.1850 at 1.1950. A failure to break these resistance zones could indicate a larger expanded correction within wave 4 (blue).

The EUR/USD broke above 2 resistance trend lines (dotted lines) and could be building either a bullish 123 or ABC wave. Price is now building a small triangle (red/blue lines).

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the potential wave 4 (blue). The Fibonacci levels are acting as a support for a continuation of the uptrend via wave 5.

The GBP/USD has also broken above the resistance trend line (dotted lines) and could be building either a wave 123 or ABC. A new break above resistance (red) could indicate a bullish continuation

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is testing the support trend line (blue). A bounce could indicate the continuation within wave 5 (blue) whereas a break could indicate the end of wave 1 or wave A at the recent high.

The USD/JPY could potentially have completed an ABC (orange) correction within wave 4 (purple) at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The support and resistance trend lines will indicate to which direction price will break.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1404; (P) 1.1439; (R1) 1.1467; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook. With 1.1511 minor resistance, correction from 1.1622 short term top is expected extend through 1.1355 support. Strong support is expected from 1.1257 (38.2% retracement of 1.0652 to 1.1622 at 1.1251) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1511 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 1.1622.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.06% against the USD and closed at 0.7849.

LME Copper prices declined 0.3% or $21.0/MT to $6405.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.7% or $14.5/MT to $2102.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7841, with the AUD trading 0.1% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Early morning data indicated that Australia’s private sector credit advanced 0.5% on a monthly basis in August, compared to a similar rise in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7807, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7774. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7867, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7894.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.1781, after data indicated that the Euro-zone's final consumer confidence index climbed to a sixteen-year high level of -1.2 in September, confirming the preliminary print and following a level of -1.5 in the prior month.

Further, the region's economic confidence index jumped to a more than ten-year high level of 113.0 in September, indicating that businesses and households are growing more upbeat about the region's growth prospects. The index had recorded a reading of 111.9 in the previous month, while markets were expecting for a rise to a level of 112.0.

Separately, Germany's flash consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% YoY in September, at par with market expectations and following a similar rise in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's GfK consumer confidence index registered an unexpected drop to a level of 10.8 in October, defying market consensus for an increase to a level of 11.0 and following a level of 10.9 in the prior month.

In the US, data indicated that the final annualised gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, accelerating at its quickest pace in more than two years, while the preliminary figures had indicated an expansion of 3.0%. The nation's GDP had posted a revised advance of 1.2% in the previous quarter. Further, the nation's preliminary wholesale inventories recorded a rise of 1.0% on a monthly basis in August, beating market expectations for an advance of 0.4%. In the previous month, wholesale inventories had climbed 0.6%.

Other economic data showed that advance goods trade deficit in the US surprisingly narrowed to a level of $62.9 billion in August, after reporting a revised deficit of $63.9 billion in the previous month, while investors had envisaged the trade deficit to expand to a level of $65.1 billion. On the contrary, the nation's initial jobless claims climbed more-than anticipated to a level of 272.0K in the week ended 23 September, compared to a revised level of 260.0K in the prior week, while markets had anticipated for an advance to a level of 270.0K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1779, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1732, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1685. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1815, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1851.

Going ahead, investors will focus on the Euro-zone's flash inflation numbers for September along with Germany's unemployment rate for September and retail sales for August, all slated to release in a few hours. Later today, traders would eye the US personal income as well as spending data for August and the final Michigan consumer confidence index for September.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.3434, after Brexit officials confirmed that “considerable progress” is finally being made in the fourth round of Brexit negotiations.

Yesterday, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, indicated that the central bank has limited tools to mitigate economic damage caused by Brexit, although it could influence how that hit is spread across Britain. He further added that the BoE will continue to assess and express its independent assessment of the risks associated with Brexit.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3411, with the GBP trading 0.17% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that the nation's GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly climbed to a four-month high level of -9.0 in September, confounding market consensus for a drop to a level of -11.0. In the prior month, the index had registered a level of -10.0.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3351, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3291. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3463, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3515.

Ahead in the day, market participants will focus on UK's final 2Q GDP as well as net consumer credit and mortgage approvals data, both for August.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.42% against the JPY and closed at 112.39.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.67, with the USD trading 0.25% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% on an annual basis in August, surpassing market consensus for a gain of 0.6%. The CPI had climbed 0.4% in the prior month. Further, the nation's unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8% in August, meeting market expectations. Moreover, the nation's preliminary industrial production rebounded more-than-anticipated by 2.1% on a monthly basis in August, compared to market expectations for an advance of 1.8%. In the previous month, industrial production had recorded a drop of 0.8%.

In other economic news, Japan's retail trade registered a more-than-expected drop of 1.7% in August, while markets had envisaged for a fall of 0.5% and following a rise of 1.1% in the previous month. On the contrary, the nation's large retailers' sales rebounded 0.6% in August, compared to a fall of 0.2% in the prior month, while markets were expecting for an advance of 0.3%.

Separately, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions report showed that one policymaker urged for expanding monetary stimulus at the central bank's September meeting, while most officials remained in favour of maintaining the current stimulus programme, as the bank was far from achieving the 2.0% inflation target.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.22, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.66.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average