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Intraday time frames are still in downtrend on the USD/JPY pair and at this point there is a retracement. The pair is getting close to the POC zone 111.50-65 (D H4, W H3, EMA89, 50.0, ATR high) where it could reject to retest 111.30 and 111.00 again. A successful rejection and subsequent break of 111.00 should target 110.60. The pair should ideally stay close below 111.85 if bears still want to have the upper hand.

GBP/CHF – 1.2485

  




 

GBP/CHF – Circle wave v ended at 0.9106 and major correction has commenced for subsequent gain to 1.5547.






Sterling only recovered to 1.2639 (just missed our recommended short entry at 1.2655) before meeting anticipated selling interest and the subsequent selloff adds credence to our bearish view that the rebound from 1.2241 has ended and downside bias remains for a retest of this level, break there would confirm the decline from 1.3069 top has resumed and may extend weakness to previous chart support at 1.2215, then 1.2150, having said that, loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below another chart support at 1.2102 (this year’s low) and price should stay above psychological support at 1.2000, bring rebound later.  




To recap the larger degree count, the selloff from 2.4965 (July 2007) is the beginning of wave V with circle and is labeled as 1: 2.3760, 2: 2.4425, wave 3 extension ended at 1.1470, followed by wave 4 at 1.5547, the quick rebound from 0.9106 suggests wave 5 as well as entire circle wave V could have ended there, hence consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for major correction to take place, bring initial test of 1.5547 (previous 4th of a lesser degree).


 


On the upside, whilst current recovery from 1.2270 may bring initial bounce to 1.2400, reckon resistance at 1.2472 would limit upside and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. Only a break of previous minor support at 1.2537 (tentatively sub-wave 1 trough) would abort and prolong consolidation, risk a stronger rebound to 1.2590-00 but price should falter below said resistance at 1.2639, bring another decline later.  




Recommendation: Sell at 1.2455 for 1.2255 with stop below 1.2555.

On the Monthly chart, the longer-term count is that major downtrend is under way with circle wave I at 2.8645 (Sep 1.978), then wave II with circle at 4.6175 (Feb 1981), the wave III with circle ended at 1.7425 (Nov 1995) and followed by wave IV with circle at 2.4965 (July 2007 with a short wave C) and wave V with circle has possibly ended at 0.9106. A monthly close above 1.5547 would add credence to this view, bring major correction to 1.7000, then towards psychological level at 2.0000.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite some profit-taking. Hourly resistance is given at 0.7989 (19/07/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.7875 (21/07/2017 low).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD is going lower and the pair remains in a strong bearish momentum. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2701 (17/07/2017). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair is now monitoring long-term support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head lower.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9620 (20/07/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Expected to to show further weakness.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015

USD/JPY still lies in a bearish momentum. Hourly support given at 110.65 (16/06/2016 low) has been broken. Stronger support is located at a distance at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD is trading above the 1.3000 mark. Hourly resistance is given at 1.3126 (16/07/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2933 (20/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

GBP/USD – 1.3023







Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50


Trend: Near term up








Original strategy :




Sell at 1.3090, Target: 1.2890, Stop: 1.3150


Position: -



Target:  -



Stop: - 







New strategy :




Sell at 1.3090, Target: 1.2890, Stop: 1.3150



Position: -



Target:  -



Stop:-






Yesterday’s rebound to 1.3058 has retained our view that further consolidation above 1.2933 would be seen and initial upside risk remains for the recovery from this last week’s low to bring further gain to 1.3062, however, if our view that top has been formed at 1.3126 is correct, upside should be limited to 1.3090-00 and bring another decline later, below 1.2950-55 would signal the rebound from 1.2933 has ended, bring test of this level, break there would add credence to our view and extend the fall from 1.3126 top to 1.2910-15, break there would provide confirmation, then further fall to 1.2870-80 would follow but reckon support at 1.2812 would remain intact, bring rebound later. 




Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200. 




On the upside, whilst further recovery to 1.3062 cannot be ruled out, price should falter below 1.3100 and bring another retreat later. A break above last week’s high of 1.3126 would signal recent upmove is still in progress and may extend headway to 1.3150, then towards 1.3190-00 but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.3250, bring another retreat later.



EUR/USD bullish pressures continue. Hourly resistance given at 1.1584 (18/07/2017 high) has been broken. Other hourly resistance can be found at 1.1684 (24/07/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1371 (13/07/2017 high). Stronger support lies at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holding at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) is on target while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

The Aussie dollar is holding in a choppy near-term trading, entrenched within narrowing range, following strong rejections at both sides (0.7988 at the upside and 0.7874 at the downside) in recent sessions.

Solid support at 0.7900 is holding the downside for now, while session high at 0.7948 marks initial resistance.

Overall bullish structure keeps focus at psychological 0.8000 barrier which so far resisted attacks and eventual break here would spark further upside action and expose next target at 0.8164 (14 May 2015 high / 50% of larger 0.9503/0.6825 descend).

Australian inflation data are in focus (CPI q/q is expected to slow in Q2 according to the forecast at 0.4% vs 0.5% in Q1), with RBA Governor Lowe also due to speak on Tuesday and expected to give signals about central bank's monetary policy, following hawkish minutes of previous meeting, released last week, which boosted the Aussie dollar.

Traders are also looking for signal from Fed which ends its two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

On the other side, signals of reversal generated by reversal of slow stochastic from overbought zone on daily chart and overbought daily RSI, keep the downside vulnerable.

Sustained break below 0.7900 support zone (reinforced by Fibo 23.6% of 0.7572/0.7988 rally and rising 10SMA) would generate initial bearish signal for extension towards pivotal support at 0.7830 (Fibo 38.2%), break of which would trigger deeper correction.

Res: 0.7948, 0.7967, 0.7988, 0.8000
Sup: 0.7900, 0.7874, 0.7830, 0.7800