Sample Category Title
Trade Idea : GBP/USD – Stand aside
GBP/USD - 1.3011
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.3011
Kijun-Sen level : 1.2986
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.2990
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.2985
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Despite falling marginally to 1.2940 last Friday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound has retained our view that further consolidation above this level would take place and another bounce to 1.3030-35 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.3059 and price should falter below 1.3085-90 and bring another decline later.
On the downside, below 1.2975-80 would bring retest of said support at 1.2940, however, break there is needed to signal recent fall from 1.3269 top has resumed and extend weakness to previous chart support at 1.2933 but reckon 1.2900 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.
European Open Briefing: Signs Of Tension Between The USA And The North Korea Eased Off
Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.88 %, Shanghai Composite rose 0.72 %, Hang Seng climbed 1.13 %, ASX 200 gained 0.70 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1292.79 (-0.09 %), Silver at $17.13 (+0.40 %), WTI Oil at $48.77 (-0.10 %), Brent Oil at $52.02 (-0.15 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.20, UK 10 year yield at 1.06, German 10 year yield at 0.38
News & Data:
- NZD Retail Sales q/q 2.0 % vs 1.5 % previous
- NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 2.1 % vs 1.2 % previous
- CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.4% % vs 7.6 % previous
- JPY Prelim GDP q/q 1.0 % vs 0.3 % previous
- USD CPI m/m 0.1 % vs 0.2% expected
- USD Core CPI m/m 0.1 % vs 0.2 % expected
- U.S. officials say nuclear war with North Korea isn’t imminent – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR long 94K vs 83K long last week. Longs increased by 11K
- GBP short 25K vs 29K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K.
- JPY short 96K vs 112K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 16K
- CHF short 1K vs 1K long last week. 2K new longs
- CAD long 63K vs 41K short. CAD longs increased by 22K.
- AUD long 58k vs 61k last week. Longs trimmed by 3K.
- NZD long 33K vs 35K long last week. Longs trimmed by 2K
Markets Update:
Signs of tension between the USA and the North Korea eased off as Asian stocks bounced on Monday after three continuous losing sessions.
USD/JPY (and yen crosses) traded a little higher on the session; The Yen dropped close to 0.3 Percent trading at fresh session highs of 109.64 per dollar.
EUR/USD: The prevailing tensions failed to generate anything noteworthy last week with an overall gain of mere 48 pips. Opening this week, the Euro has done very little on the session trading at just 0.1 percent higher against the USD at $1.1824.
The Aussie gained few points earlier today despite disappointing Chinese Industrial production data. It was seen trading marginally up at 0.7919 against the USD earlier today. NZD/USD is barely net changed on the session trading close to it’s opening price of 0.7303
GBP/USD is seen trading a tad higher on the day crossing the 1.30000 barrier from it’s opening price of 1.29937. The pound had closed last week with a mere 25 pip loss as weekly sellers struggled to register anything noteworthy to the downside
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – (EUR) CPI Industrial Production m/m
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, August 15th
- French Bank Holiday
- Italian Bank Holiday
- 01:30 GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 06:00 GMT – (EUR) German Prelim GDP q/q
- 07:15 GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) RPI y/y
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Import Prices m/m
Wednesday, August 16th
- 01:30 GMT – (AUD) Wage Price Index q/q
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
- 09:00 GMT – (EUR) Flash GDP q/q
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Building Permits
- 14:30 GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:00 GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 22:45 GMT – (NZD) PPI Input q/q
Thursday, August 17th
- 01:30 GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
- 01:30 GMT – (AUD) Unemployment rate
- 08:20 GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
- 08:30 GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
- 09:00 GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
- 11:30 GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 12:30 GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday, August 18th
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
- 14:00 GMT – (CAD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
- 14:15 GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Aussie Dollar Trading Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.36% against the USD and closed at 0.7893 on Friday.
LME Copper prices declined 1.0% or $63.0/MT to $6353.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.8% or $16.5/MT to $2040.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7904, with the AUD trading 0.14% higher against the USD from Friday's close.
Earlier today in China, Australia's largest trading partner, industrial production recorded a less-than-expected rise of 6.4% in July, compared to market expectations for a rise of 7.1%. In the previous month, industrial production had registered a rise of 7.6%. Also, the nation's retail sales climbed less-than-expected by 10.4% YoY in July, compared to an advance of 11.0% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged retail sales to gain 10.8%.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7856, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7807. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7936, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7967.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Germany’s Annual Inflation Grew As Initially Estimated In July
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.49% against the USD and closed at 1.1823 on Friday.
In economic news, data revealed that Germany's final consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.7% on an annual basis in July, confirming the preliminary print. The CPI had risen 1.6% in the previous month.
The greenback lost ground against a basket of currencies, after weaker-than-expected US inflation data dashed hopes of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the year-end.
Data showed that consumer price inflation in the US rose less-than-expected by 0.1% on a monthly basis in July, offering fresh signs that price pressures in the world's largest economy remain muted. In the previous month, the CPI had registered a flat reading, while markets participants had expected for an advance of 0.2%. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the CPI increased less-than-anticipated by 1.7% in July. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 1.6%.
Meanwhile, the US President, Donald Trump issued a new warning to North Korea, stating that the US military was “locked and loaded” on the nation.
Separately, Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated that there was a Russian-Chinese plan to defuse tensions between the US and North Korea.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1829, with the EUR trading a tad higher against the USD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1770, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1710. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1868, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1906.
Moving ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the Euro-zone's industrial production data for June, slated to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Trade Idea : EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.1790
EUR/USD - 1.1827
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.1822
Kijun-Sen level : 1.1798
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.1758
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.1737
Original strategy :
Bought at 1.1790, Target: 1.1890, Stop: 1.1755
Position : - Long at 1.1790
Target : - 1.1890
Stop : - 1.1755
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 1.1790, Target: 1.1890, Stop: 1.1770
Position : - Long at 1.1790
Target : - 1.1890
Stop : - 1.1770
As the single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.1748 on Friday and rallied, adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.1689 last week and mild upside bias remains for further gain to 1.1850, then 1.1880, however, a firm break above latter level is needed to confirm correction from 1.1910 top has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would signal early upmove has resumed and extend headway towards 1.1940-50 first.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.1790. Only below support at 1.1748 would defer and risk weakness to 1.1720, however, downside should be limited to 1.1700 and support at 1.1689 should remain intact, bring another rally later.
Pound Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.3014 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3016, with the GBP trading marginally higher against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2960, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2905. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3051, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3087.
With no macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment will be determined by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Economic Growth Accelerated In The Second Quarter Of 2017
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.09 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.37, with the USD trading 0.26% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.
Overnight data indicated that Japan’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 1.0% on a quarterly basis in second quarter of 2017, beating market expectations for a rise of 0.6%, amid robust consumer spending and capital expenditure. In the prior quarter, GDP had climbed 0.3%.
The pair is expected to find support at 108.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.90.
Going ahead, market participants will focus on Japan’s final industrial production data for June, slated to release tomorrow.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Swiss Franc Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9614 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9636, with the USD trading 0.23% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.96, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9565. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9655, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9675.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Loonie Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.46% against the CAD and closed at 1.2684 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2677, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CAD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2636, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2594. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2736, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2794.
Ahead in the day, investors will look forward to Canada’s Teranet/National Bank house price index for July.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2636; (P) 1.2694; (R1) 1.2737; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. The corrective rise from 1.2412 might still extend higher. But based on current momentum, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2552 minor support will argue that the recovery is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2412.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.
