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The EUR/CHFfailed once again to take out a major dynamic resistance and now could go down on the Daily chart.

Price dropped aggressively in the yesterday’s trading session, we had another false breakout above the upper median line (UML) of the major ascending pitchfork and above the median line (ml) of the minor ascending pitchfork. Could drop much deeper in the upcoming days because looks too overbought to climb much higher on the Daily chart at this moment.

Could approach the 1.1000 level in the upcoming days and the lower median line (lml) of the minor ascending pitchfork.Only a breakdown from the minor ascending pitchfork’s body will confirm a larger drop.

The currency pair has decreased since yesterday and could come down to test and retest the support levels before will climb much higher. Is trading much above the 129.50 psychological level and maintains a bullish perspective on the Daily chart.

Looks like that is consolidation because needs to recapture more directional energy before will approach new highs, we have to wait for a confirmation that will continue the upside movement. We have to be careful because the Yen could start another leg higher if the Nikkie stock index will drop further.

The JP225 moves sideways on the short term, remains to see if this will be an accumulation or a distribution movement. The index looks a little exhausted on the Daily chart and failed once again to stay above the 20058 static resistance and could come down to retest the 19700 major static support, a valid breakdown will confirm a major drop in the upcoming period.

Price is expected to retest the upper median line (UML) of the major ascending pitchfork and the median line (ml) of the minor ascending pitchfork, we have a strong confluence between these levels, we’ll see how will react when will hit this zone.

We’ll have a perfect buying opportunity if the support levels will hold and if will reject the price again, only a breakdown through the confluence area will accelerate the sell-off.

Support can be found also at the 38.2% retracement level and at the sliding line (SL), so only a valid breakdown below these levels will confirm a large drop.

The next upside target remains at the 130.76 previous high, could be attracted by the 150% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line) as well.

GBP/USD - 1.3010

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3006

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2991

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2993

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2979

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3040, Target: 1.2940, Stop: 1.3075

Position : - 

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.3060, Target: 1.2960, Stop: 1.3095

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Cable found support at 1.2959 on Friday and has rebounded again, suggesting the recovery from 1.2933 may bring further gain to 1.3040, however, still reckon resistance at 1.3062 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below 1.2950-55 would signal the rebound from 1.2933 has ended, bring weakness to 1.2932-33 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2812-1.3126 and said support), break there would extend the fall from 1.3126 top to previous support at 1.2912 but below latter level is needed to retain bearishness and bring subsequent selloff to 1.2880-85. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell cable on recovery as resistance at 1.3062 should limit upside. A firm break above resistance at 1.3062 would abort and suggest the fall from 1.3127 has ended instead, bring a stronger rebound towards 1.3090-00 but resistance at 1.3126 should remain intact. 

On Friday, US equities were sold off, along with USD, with EURUSD reaching its highest level since January 2015. The markets were concerned to learn that there will be a further investigation into President Trumps' financial dealings that may cause his economic agenda to falter. Further adding to concerns around Trumps administration was the news that senior adviser Jared Kushner will be interviewed by the Senate Intelligence Committee on Monday and Donald Trump Jr., and former Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort, will go before Senate committees on Wednesday. USD has further been impacted by the recent downgraded forecast of US growth by the IMF from 2.3% to 2.1% for 2017.

EURUSD gained nearly 1.8% last week, with Friday being the 5th consecutive daily advance. On Friday, EURUSD reached a high of 1.16676 which has been breached in early Monday trading to reach a high of 1.16838. EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1670.

USDJPY touched a 4-week low on Friday of 111.064, a 0.7% drop on the day and JPY strengthening has continued with USDJPY reaching a low of 110.764 in early Monday trading. Currently, USDJPY is trading around 111.10.

GBP traded lower against EUR on Friday, close to an eight-month low and capping its worst week since October trading near to 0.8995. EURGBP is currently trading around 0.8967. GBP fared slightly better against USD on Friday and is currently trading around 1.3017, even with the IMF downgrading its growth forecast for the UK from 2% to 1.7% for 2017. GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.3015.

Gold rose 0.8% on Friday, benefitting from a weaker USD, to trade as high as $1,255.61. Currently Gold is little changed, trading around $1,255.

WTI suffered a loss of 2.4% on Friday, to trade as low as $45.55pb. However, on Sunday, OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo stated “We are pretty sure that the rebalancing process may be going at a slower pace than earlier projected, but it is on course. It is bound to accelerate in the second half”. WTI is currently trading around $45.85pb.

At 8:00 BST, The Japanese Cabinet Office will release the Leading Economic Index for June. The index consists of 12 indexes such as account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators, which will give a gauge as to the economic conditions in Japan. If the data release is higher than the previous number of 104.7 it will be considered bullish for JPY, with a poorer number being bearish for JPY.

At 11:00 BST, EUR Market Services PMI Services is due to be released, with the market expecting 55.5, bettering the previous reading of 55.4. So, unless this release is significantly better or worse, the markets will expect EUR to remain unchanged.

At 16:45 BST, US Market Services PMI Services is due to be released, with the market expecting 54.3, bettering the previous reading of 54.2. So, unless this release is significantly better or worse, the markets will expect USD to remain unchanged.

The GBP/USD could be extending its correction via a WXY (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W are therefore potential resistance spots for a bearish bounce.

The GBP/USD is probably building an ABC (grey) correction within wave X (purple) unless price manages to break above 1.3080. In that case price could be very impulsive and the wave structure is vulnerable to a change.

The USD/JPY has moved below the 161.8% Fibonacci target which makes a 5 wave (orange) structure a more likely scenario.

The USD/JPY is most likely extending the wave 5 (grey) with 5 internal waves (green). A wave 4 (green) retracement should remain below the bottom of wave 1 (green) which is indicated by the trend line (dark red).

EUR/USD - 1.1643

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1661

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1660

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1613

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1578

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.1580, Target: 1.1680, Stop: 1.1545

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.1580, Target: 1.1680, Stop: 1.1545

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has retreated after marginal rise to 1.1684, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to support at 1.1617 is likely, however, reckon previous resistance at 1.1583 would turn into support and contain downside, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.1684 would extend recent upmove to previous chart resistance at 1.1714 but break there is needed to retain bullishness for the rise from 1.0340 low to head towards 1.1750. 

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on further pullback as previous resistance at 1.1583 should limit downside. Below 1.1550 would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, bring correction to 1.1510-15 but support at 1.1479 should remain intact.

The EUR/USD showed a classical break, pullback and continuation pattern above the 1.15 resistance level. Price is still in a wave 3 (orange) momentum which could last till the next round resistance zone at 1.1750. Once wave 3 is completed, price will most likely build a wave 4 correction which should then see price continue higher via the waves 5 (brown/purple) within wave 3 (green).

The EUR/USD is building a rising wedge chart pattern which could be a first signal that wave 3 (orange) is coming close to its completion.

Gold has almost closed the trading day above $1255 on Friday. The precious metal is still very well bid, and a daily close above $1255 signals that the rally could extend to $1280 in the near-term.

To the downside, solid support is now noted at $1243 and $1238.

WTI was clearly rejected off $47.30 resistance and is moving towards $45.

A break sub-45 support would confirm the false breakout and pave the way for a retracement towards $42.