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The euro has ticked higher in the Friday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.14 level. On the release front, the eurozone trade surplus edged up to EUR 19.7 billion, falling short of EUR 20.3 billion. The US will release CPI and retail sales, with both indicators expected to post a weak gain of 0.1%.

Germany may be the catalyst of the eurozone's economic recovery, but the bloc's largest economy has not been immune to low inflation. Final CPI improved to 0.2% in June, compared to -0.2% in May. CPI has managed just one reading above 0.2% in 2017, and earlier in the week, WPI came in at 0.0%. German and eurozone inflation levels remain well below the ECB's target of 2%, and with no indication that inflation levels will move higher anytime soon, the cautious ECB is unlikely to taper its aggressive stimulus package.

The US economy has slowed in 2017, with GDP in the first quarter of 1.4%. Despite a labor market that remains close to capacity, consumer spending has not kept up. Wage growth remains weak, and inflation levels are well below the Fed's target of 2 percent. Later on Friday, the markets will get a look at consumer spending and inflation indicators. The markets are expecting weak gains, which could disappoint investors and hurt the US dollar.

Janet Yellen's testimony on Capitol Hill this week was cautious and the markets didn't show much reaction to her comments. Yellen's message didn't veer from what the markets have already heard from other Fed policy makers. Yellen reiterated that the Fed planned to raise rates “gradually”, and added that the Fed would begin trimming its balance sheet before the end of the year. The Fed chair didn't provide any timelines, but the most likely timelines are September for a balance sheet reduction, with a rate hike to follow in December. However, despite Yellen's assurances, the markets remain lukewarm about a rate hike before the end of the year. Investors are concerned that the US economy has slowed down in 2017 and may not need another rate hike. In her testimony before a congressional committee, Yellen reiterated said that she believes the factors weighing on inflation are temporary. However, she acknowledged that with inflation well below the Fed's target of 2%, “there could be more going on there”. Early in the year, the Fed all but signed on the dotted line that it would raise rates three times in 2017, but a third rate hike has become a serious question mark, with the odds of a December hike continuing to dip. According to the CME Group, the current odds for a December increase are just 43%.

Global Equities were given a boost the past few days, which has been bullish for the GJ pair. Japanese data has been solid the past week, and its major trading partner in China has posted strong data for the week. Whereas, US data has largely been meeting expectations. At this point we can spot 2 POC zones where the price could reject as the pair is making a technical zig-zag pattern. POC1 (D H3, 23.6, EMA89, ATR pivot) comes within 146.65-80 zone. POC1 rejection should be a sign of a strong trend due to technical confluence it makes within the POC itself. If it rejects from this zone the pair should target 147.80 where the doors for 148.50 might be open next week. Deeper retracement targets 145.55-75 zone (D L4, trend line, ATR low, W L4) and rejection from this zone targets 146.80 and 147.80 if the pair makes 4h close above the level.

Buy GBP on Brexit bill

In an important step forward for Brexit, Britain formally acknowledged that there will be a cost to separation from the EU. The media is framing the existing financial obligations as a “bill” which clearly has a punitive and negative connotation. However, owning up to commitments it's the logical and legal action that must occur. The GBP rallied on the news against the USD and EUR. The development is bullish in our view as the glimmer of honestly (in a sea of cloudy Brexit rhetoric) sets up a constructive dialog at next week negotiations. In addition, that acknowledgement of existing and future liability highlight the complexity of executing a “hard” Brexit.

If nothing less a “soft” Brexit will been a necessary for the UK in order to monitor capital allocations and usage. Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has stated that EU must avoid insisting on “extortionate sums.” For the long game we suspect cooler heads will prevail in UK-EU relations proving GBP room for further appreciations. However, our ideal strategy around the sterling remains buy on panic Brexit selling. We are long the bullish reversal off 1.2831 pivot targeting 1.3048 resistance.

Balancing Act at the ECB

At next Thursday's meeting of the ECB's Governing Council (20 July), we expect the Governors to continue their monetary tightening, but to do so in a ‘kind and gentle' way. That is, they will try to soften the blow so as not to roil markets more than necessary.

Next Thursday, we expect ECB Chairman Mario Draghi to act hawkish while trying not to sound hawkish. We believe he will begin plans for a tapering of Quantitative Easing to start on 26 October. We expect QE to end in mid-2018 (depending on market reaction and economic data), and we look for an ECB rate increase by the end of 2018.

Central banks worldwide are shifting toward normalization of interest rates, and this is sending shockwaves through financial markets, pushing yields up 25bp across the yield curve. Draghi recently smashed conventional (dovish) wisdom with hawkish comments, sending the EUR on a bullish tear. He seems inspired by the Eurozone's solid growth and not too fearful of inflation.

GOLD Trading mixed.

Gold's is trading mixed after the precious metal reached the $1200 level. Hourly support is now given at $1204 (10/07/2017 high). Hourly resistance can be found at 1229 (06/07/2017 high). Expected to show renewed bearish pressures in case the resistance level at 1229 holds.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

SILVER Renewed bearish pressures.

Silver's bearish pressures are important. The metal is heading towards hourly support given at 15.18 (10/07/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Stalling below resistance area at 46.

Crude oil is trading above $44. The volatility is declining. Hourly support is given at 43.65 (10/07/2017 low). Expected to show renewed bearish pressures as the black gold is stalling below 46.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/GBP Weakening within bullish trend.

EUR/GBP has failed to test for the third time resistance area around 0.8900. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show further buying pressures.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Consolidating above 1.10.

EUR/CHF is still trading above psychological level at 1.1000. Selling pressures will definitely be important at this point. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0922 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

BITCOIN Facing strong downside risk.

Bitcoin is located in a medium-term bearish trend while very short-term momentum is slightly bullish. Hourly resistance can be found at 2417 (13/07/2017 high) and hourly support is given at 2242 (12/07/2017 low).

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will consolidate above $1500. Long-term support is given at $1464 (04/05/2017 low).

USD/CHF Sideways price action.

USD/CHF is trading higher within a slight short-term bullish trend. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9696 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Consolidating.

USD/CAD is consolidating but the pair remains in a strong bearish momentum. Hourly support is given at 1.2681 (12/07/2017 low). Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Bullish breakout.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite some consolidation move. An unlikely break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a renewed bearish trend.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Entering into a consolidating phase.

EUR/USD bearish pressures are weak and the pair is still lying in a bullish momentum. Hourly resistance is given at broken resistance at 1.1489 (12/07/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low). Expected to show sideways price action.

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Continued increase.

GBP/USD is pushing higher towards 1.3000. Strong resistance can be found at 1.3048 (18/05/2017 high). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Consolidating.

USD/JPY is consolidating after exiting symmetrical triangle. Hourly support can be found at 112.83 (13/07/2017 low). Stronger support is located at a distance at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show increasing bearish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

WTI oil futures have broken the downtrend they started building on July 4, as they recently could not post a lower low below 43.66, flashing a potential trend reversal to the upside. Oil is currently consolidating above the key level of 45 per barrel and several indicators are giving an additional bullish signal.

In the near-term, technical indicators argue for an upside bias, as both the RSI and the MACD fluctuate in a bullish area. However, the RSI, as well as the MACD, have slowed down their speed, meaning that a potential uptrend could be weak. A bullish evidence is also given by the price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, the 50-4-hour and slightly up the 200-4-hour exponential moving average (EMA).

Should the price head down, an immediate support could be provided by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 45.78 (upleg from 43.66 to 46.44). A second support is likely to be found around the 38.2% Fibonacci of 45.37, where the 50-4-hour EMA and a cross between the Senkoun– span A and Senkoun – Span B are also located. A steeper decline would target the 50% Fibonacci mark of 45.04.

The metal continues to trade in the borders of the previously established channel up pattern. As it can be observed on the hourly chart, the commodity price recently found support in the combination of the lower trend line of the mentioned channel and the 100-hour SMA at the 1,216 mark. Since then both the support levels have moved upwards in tandem, and they might force the commodity price even higher. However, the metal will face the combined resistance of the 55 and 200-hour SMAs below the 1,220 mark and the monthly S1 at the 1,220.50 level. Although, in the recent history the SMAs have not shown enough force to change the direction of the metal.

During Thursday's trading session, the US Dollar was trading between the weekly PP and S1. The American currency succeeded at surpassing the former early in the morning, but was reserved back in the range after encountering the 200-hour SMA near the 113.50 mark. There is still some downside potential that may be realised in in the upcoming hours. The Dollar has formed a minor descending wedge against the Yen that could be breached soon. A breakout to the upside is the most likely scenario that may occur in this session in case the pair fails to move below the 113.00 mark. Nevertheless, an upside surge may be hindered or even stopped at the 200– or 100-hour SMAs, while gains should be capped at the monthly R1 circa 114.00.