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EURUSD - With the pair failing to hold on to its past week gains to close on a rejection candle the past week, it now faces pullback threats. Resistance comes in at 1.1250 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1300 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1350 level where a break will expose the 1.1400 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1150 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1100 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1050 level. All in all, EURUSD faces further bear pressure.

GOLD - The commodity continues to hold on to its upside pressure short term. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,260.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,240.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,230.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,270.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,280.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,290.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,300.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further.

Holiday Markets

Not much to be gleaned from Friday's pre-long weekend activity.The markets were reticent as traders were in snooze mode by weeks end.

As we turn the page in the month of May, the US dollar battleground amongst various competing market narratives rages on. And with recent Fed speak as much ado about the balance sheet as it is about the rate hike path, now enters another level of confusion to dissect.

US equities continued powering higher last week as concerns about the capacity for the Trump administration to pass through pro-growth agenda subsides.But given the levels of political noise likely to emanate from Washington on Trump's return, investor bravado could turn on a dime. Dealers will be on the lookout for any Comey/Russia developments

The Euro

There was a minor dent in the Euro armour heading into week's end on suspected positions squaring.However . Coeure's dovish stance, lessening a chance of an ECB December hike along with the Feds ratcheting up the tapering rhetoric has dealers thinking that we have not seen the maximum rate differential just yet, which is likely weighing on Euro sentiment. But EU inflow remains buoyant, and from a flow perspective, this should be respected. In the meantime, with the ECB June meeting approaching and the market building higher expectation for an ECB policy move, both ECB and FED speeches will be monitored more intently.

On the EU front, a big inflation print Wednesday could swing Euro views leading up to the June 8 ECB meeting. And the always important NFP will shape dollar sentiment leading up to the Jun 14 FOMC meeting.The battleground will likely get more intense in the weeks ahead

The British Pound

The pound was a G-10 worst performer as election polls are pointing to a narrower-than-expected win for Prime Minister Theresa May in June.Whatever thoughts the market once had about a “ soft “ Brexit are now shaping up to be an unrealistic political pipe dream. Not only are negotiators dealing with an extremely contentious divorce bill, but the uptick in UK political uncertainty could send the pound toppling lower.There's a growing sense of unpredictability in the markets, and If I didn't have the GBP symbol on my Sterling chart, I would have trouble differentiating the gaps, blips and madcap price action from an EM currency

The Chinese Yuan

CNH markets are back in focus after suspected intervention amidst stronger CNY fixings. Additionally Tom Next ratcheted higher to 88 pips on Friday as the fear of another market squeeze had dealers aggressively paying the forward curve. While month end financing pressure is expected, this surge in funding is well beyond the norm so that traders will be monitoring the short-term interest rates markets this week for additional clarity.These tight conditions make it extremely prohibitive to carry short CNH position and within the Pboc arsenal to kerb speculative activities.

Lots of confusion with China's plan to add a ‘counter-cyclical factor' in their CNY fixing formula. I'm in the two steps back camp as far as moving towards free float, as this “get out of jail” card could and will likely be used to iron out intraday market pressure points. The policy shift could be another hit to the Pboc credibility who continue to struggle to get their house in order

Australian Dollar

The China growth narrative or lack thereof is gradually coming into focus as concerns about an adverse economic shock from China are building which should present a clear problem to commodity exporters like Australia. I expect industrial metals to remain dark as talk of a China slowdown fans.
With the AUDUSD carry trade shaved paper thin to nonexistent in short dates, it all about the commodity plays these days and with the markets growing increasingly concerned about demand for Iron Ore the Aussie could continue to struggle more so if both the Fed and ECB point to a more hawkish shift in forwarding guidance. Notwithstanding the odds for a rate cut by the RBA are now increasing oh so slightly.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1267 last week but lost momentum after breaching 138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245. That was also close to 1.1298 key resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. At this point, remain cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 to limit upside and bring reversal. But another rise will be in favor as long as 1.1020 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.1020 resistance turned support will indicate rejection from 1.1245/98 and turn bias to the downside for 1.0838 support first.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

In the long term picture, the case for completion of down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high), and long term bottoming at 1.0339, is starting to build up. Decisive break of 1.1298 will bring rise back to 1.2042 as first resistance. And in that case, we should at least see rally back to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation from 110.23 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's sharp fall last week indicates short term topping at 1.0347 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of the near term channel also suggests completion of rise from 1.2108. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2614 resistance turned support first. Break there should also indicate completion of whole consolidation pattern from 1.1946 and target a retest on this low. Meanwhile, above 1.2926 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.3047 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. The rejection from 55 week EMA is maintaining bearishness in the pair. Also, at this point, as long as 1.3444 resistance holds, fall from 1.7190 is still expected to continue. Break of above mentioned 1.2614 support will affirm this bearish case.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532.

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9691 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Consolidation from 0.9691 could extend and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9858 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Whole decline from 1.0342 is still in progress and below 0.9691 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9617. We'll start to look for reversal signal below there.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7516 last week but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and retreated. At this point, it's staying above 0.7405 minor support. Thus, there is no confirmation of completion of rebound from 0.7328 yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, fall from 0.7748 is still expected to continue. Below 0.7405 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7382. Break there will target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD dropped further to as low as 1.3387 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3570 resistance and bring fall resumption. At this point, we're still favoring the case that rise from 1.2968 has completed. And the larger rise from 1.2460 could have finished too. Below 1.3387 will target 1.3222 support first. Break of 1.3222 will affirm our bearish view and target 1.2968 key support level for confirmation. However, break of 1.3570 will turn focus back to 1.3793 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and could have completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

GBP/JPY's decline from 148.09 extended to as low as 142.11 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 140.35. At this point, we'd still expect rebound from 122.36 to resume later. Hence, we'd look for strong support below 140.35 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 145.43 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 148.09 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 122.36 medium term bottom is still expected to extend to of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. And decisive break there could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78.. However, as the cross is starting to lose upside momentum, rejection below 150.42 and break of 135.58 support will indicate reversal and bring deeper fall back to retest 122.36 instead.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it's a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.