Sample Category Title

GOLD Bearish consolidation.

Gold has faded near the hourly resistance at 1295 (18/04/2017 high), suggesting a pickup in selling pressures. Support can be located at 1265 (intraday low).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Weakening.

Silver has broken strong support at 18.16 (rising trendline) indicating further downside risk. Hourly support is given at 17.65 (intraday low) then 16.82 (15/03/2017 low). Strong resistance is given at a distance at 19.00 (09/11/2017 high).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Continued decline.

Crude oil has declined sharply, breaking the support at 50.71, yet now has paused. Support now lies at 49.63 (08/12/2017 low). Resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 50.71 (old support) and 53.70 (12/04/2017 high).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Consolidating around 120.00.

EUR/JPY is back around 120.00. Key resistance stands at 123.31 (27/01/0217 high). Major support is given at 114.90 (18/04/2017low). Expected to see short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Ready for further decline.

EUR/GBP's sharp rebound has now paused after unsuccessfully challenged its key support at 0.8304. Resistances for a temporary rebound are given by 0.8510 (intraday high). The short-term technical structure is negative as long as the resistance at 0.8596 holds. Expected to show renewed weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Slight short-term bullish momentum.

EUR/CHF continues to push higher, yet very slightly. However, despite the sharp increase and the bullish breakout which is very likely psychological, we believe that the medium-term pattern suggests us to see at some point renewed bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Continued weakness.

USD/CHF keeps on declining despite strong volatility. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.0171 (07/03/2017). Monitor strong support given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Pushing higher.

USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher. The pair is now consolidating. There is still a strong upside momentum. Resistance given at 1.3535 (09/03/2017 high) has been broken. Hourly support can be found at 1.3411 (24/04/2017 high) then 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Failing to find demand.

AUD/USD is still trying to bounce off strong support at 0.7473 (12/04/2017 low). However, as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.7608 (17/04/2017 high), the short-term technical structure is negative. Key resistance stands at 0.7681 (30/03/2017 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Consolidating after French Election first round rally.

EUR/USD is pushing higher. Hourly support can be found at 1.0682 (21/04/2017 base) then 1.0576 (11.04.2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0494 (22/02/2017 low). Resistance given at 1.0937 (24/03/2017 high) has been broken,

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Consolidating above former resistance at 1.2775.

GBP/USD is consolidating lower after sharp bullish rally. Resistance stands at 1.2905 (18/04/2017 low). The pair is standing in a shortterm bearish momentum monitoring hourly support at 1.2757 (21/04/2017 low) as a break would confirm a weakening short-term bullish momentum. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2905 (18/04/2017 reaction high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Increasing demand.

USD/JPY is drifting higher. Hourly resistance is given at 110.64 (23/04/2017 high). Stronger resistance can be found at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high). Closest support can be located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Other key supports lie at a distant 106.04 (11/11/2016 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

'The German economy is growing strongly.' - Clemens Fuest, CESIfo

Group The mood of German companies improved unexpectedly in April, as the Ifo German Business Climate Index surged to 112.9, while experts expected that it would remain unchanged. Thus, the released figure hit a new record high in about six years, updating the previous month's record. Positive sentiment was registered in all four major sectors. Namely, in the retailing sector the Index reached its highest level since September 2015. In the construction sector assessments of the current business situation also hit a new record high. Similarly, estimates of the situation in the wholesale sector reached its highest value since 1991. Finally, manufacturers, especially from the electrical goods sector, also expected their production to rise. Such optimistic outlook is most likely based on a strong performance of the German economy in the Q1. The latest data on jobless claims showed that unemployment rate was equal to 3.9% and, thus, remained stable since November 2016. Nevertheless, inflation growth remained subdued, with the March inflation rate falling to 1.6%, the lowest in four months. It should be noted that April's survey was conducted prior to the first round of the French presidential election. Therefore, the Index did not reflect German businesses' reaction to the first-round election outcome.

The pair regained strength on Tuesday and returned above 110.00 barrier, following rejection of strong Monday's rally at 110.51 (capped by falling daily Kijun-sen) and subsequent fall.

Weakness from 110.51peak found support at 109.58 that prevented the pair of filling Monday's gap and signaling an end of 108.11/110.51 correction.

Strong resistance zone between 110.48 and 110.63 (daily Kijun-sen / Fibo 61.8% of 112.18/108.11) is under pressure and break here would signal fresh upside for possible attack at strong 111.36 barrier (top of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud.

Failure to break higher would signal extended consolidation and keep downside risk in play.

Res: 110.48, 110.63, 111.00, 110.36
Sup: 110.00, 109.58, 109.31, 109.13

The Canadian dollar tumbled during the early Asian morning Tuesday, following an announcement by US Commerce Secretary Ross that his nation will impose a 20% tariff on softwood lumber coming from Canada. The US said the decision was a response to Canada's wood subsidies. US producers have repeatedly argued that Canada's government subsidizes its industry by charging low fees for cutting trees in government-owned lands, which results in unfairly cheap lumber prices.

The big question in our minds is whether the Canadian government - which has already condemned this action - will retaliate in similar fashion. What's more, this move comes ahead of talks to renegotiate NAFTA that are set to take place this summer. In our view, the US action could set the tone regarding how those negotiations play out, and may be the first sign towards a tougher US trade relationship with Canada as well Mexico, considering all of President Trump's protectionist rhetoric during his campaign. All these confirm the BoC's concerns with regards to trade uncertainty, which was the Bank's main argument behind its recent cautious stance. Combined with the latest slowdown in the nation's CPIs, this uncertainty could keep the Bank's finger near the easing button.

USD/CAD traded yesterday, after it hit support near the 1.3425 line and the prior downside resistance line drawn from the peak of the 9th of March. The news gave an extra boost to the pair, helping it to emerge above the 1.3530 (S1) hurdle and consequently to confirm a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, the rate is testing the 1.3560 (R1) resistance, where a clear break is possible to open the way for a test near the key hurdle zone of 1.3600 (R2). The 1.3600 (R2) barrier happens to be the upper bound of the longer-term sideways range the pair has been trading within since September. A clear above that zone is needed to turn the broader picture positive and make us confident on larger bullish extensions.

Australia's CPI data for Q1 in focus

During the Asian morning Wednesday, Australia will release its CPI data for Q1. Expectations are for both the headline and trimmed mean rates to have risen, with the headline print returning back within the RBA's inflation target range of 2-3%. At its latest policy meeting, the RBA appeared slightly more dovish, particularly with regards to the labor market. However, after that gathering, data showed that the nation's labor market recovered strongly in March, which makes the case for easing at the upcoming meeting less likely. Accelerating CPIs could decrease further the possibility for any action, and may even prove cause for a slightly more upbeat message from the Bank. As such, AUD could strengthen at the time of the CPIs release.

AUD/USD traded in a consolidative manner yesterday staying between the support of 0.7550 (S1) and the resistance of 0.7585 (R1). Accelerating CPIs could encourage buyers to take control and perhaps set the stage for a test near the key obstacle of 0.7600 (R2). If they prove strong enough to overcome it, they may push the battle towards 0.7625 (R3). Switching to the daily chart, we maintain the view that the broader path is to the sideways. The rate has been oscillating between 0.7160 and 0.7800 since March 2016.

Today's highlights:

During the European morning, the economic calendar is very light. The only noteworthy indicator we get is Sweden's unemployment rate for March, which is expected to have ticked down.

From the US, we get the CB consumer confidence index for April, new home sales for March, and the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for February.

USD/CAD

Support: 1.3530 (S1), 1.3490 (S2), 1.3455 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3560 (R1), 1.3600 (R2), 1.3660 (R3)

AUD/USD

Support: 0.7550 (S1), 0.7515 (S2), 0.7475 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7585 (R1), 0.7600 (R2), 0.7625 (R3)

'The euro was steady, maintaining gains of about 1.2 percent after the French presidential vote led to a run-off between centrist Emmanuel Macron and National Front candidate Marine Le Pen.' – Dennis Pettit and Alexandria Arnold, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

The common European currency remained almost unchanged on Tuesday morning against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate traded near the 1.0860 mark. The currency exchange rate was located below the combined resistance of the monthly R1 at 1.0876 and the weekly R2 at 1.0878. This resistance level has kept the pair lower since the consolidation, which followed in the aftermath of the first round of the French Election. It is highly possible that the pair will remain almost unchanged by the end of the day, as it still remains above the upper Bollinger band.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders remain bearish on the pair, as 58% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'We read the technical indicators as suggesting there is scope for addition gains, but suspect the $1.3000-$1.3050 may be difficult to overcome.' – BBH (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

As was anticipated, the Sterling began the week on the back foot, having lost 45 pips against the US Dollar yesterday. The decline was a good sign, as it confirmed the Cable's current consolidation trend, which began after last week's strong 278-pip surge. The GBP/USD pair remains anchored to the 1.28 major level, thus, no significant development is expected to occur today. However, according to technical indicators, the bullish momentum today is likely to prevail, but with the 1.2850 mark still being the intraday ceiling, as it marks the consolidation trend's upper boundary.

Traders' Sentiment

Bulls and bears finally broke out of equilibrium, but market sentiment still remains neutral, with 51% of all open positions being long. Meanwhile, the number of purchase orders remains unchanged at 60%.

'Should the yen be bought, if the Korean situation is so nearby? But buying the yen seems to be the established market reaction, and if you've been around long enough, you know you don't go against the market.' – State Street Bank and Trust (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The Greenback underwent a corrective decline on Monday, but the losses against the Yen slightly exceeded expectations, as trade closed below the 110.00 major level. Where the given psychological support failed, the weekly R1 at 109.71 succeeded, but that does not imply that bulls are to continue pushing the Buck further up. Downside risks still persist and technical indicators support that. Nevertheless, in case the USD/JPY slips below 109.50, the tough demand cluster around 109.00 is expected to cause the pair to rebound. On the other hand, the nearest significant resistance rests only at 111.00, therefore, the US Dollar has sufficient space for a bullish development today.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 68% of traders are long the Buck (previously 69%), while the share of buy orders edged higher from 58 to 60%.