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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9958.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits rose to a level of CHF569.1 billion in the week ended 21 April, from a level of CHF567.1 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9961, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9933, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9904. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9985, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0008.

With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.19% against the CAD and closed at 1.3514. The Canadian Dollar lost ground after the US announced its first batch of duties on imported wood from Canada.

The US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, stated that his agency will impose new anti-subsidy tariffs averaging 20.0% on Canadian softwood lumber imports, thus intensifying the long-running trade dispute between the two nations.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3549, with the USD trading 0.26% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3452, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3354. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3603, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3656.

In absence of any major economic releases in Canada today, trading trend in the CAD is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.52; (P) 116.91; (R1) 117.37; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for 122.88 resistance. As noted before, corrective fall from 124.08 has completed at 114.84 already. Break of 122.88 will likely extend the larger rise from 109.20 through 124.08 resistance to 126.09 key resistance level. On the downside, though, 117.81 minor support will turn focus back to 114.84 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But current development suggests that the first leg is finished at 109.20, second leg at 114.84. And rise from 114.84 is possibly developing into the third leg. Further rise will now be mildly in favor through 124.08 resistance. Strong break of 126.09 support turned resistance will confirm completion of whole fall from 149.76 at 109.20. In such case, rise from 109.20 is developing into a medium term move for 141.04 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8459; (P) 0.8484; (R1) 0.8518; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as, at this point, it's still staying below 0.8511 resistance. Break of 0.8303 will extend the corrective fall from 0.9304 to 0.8116/20 key cluster support. We'd expect strong support there to completion the correction and bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 0.8511 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8786 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is possibly ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4301; (P) 1.4370; (R1) 1.4423; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3624 is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4721 key resistance. As noted before, we're holding on to the case off trend reversal after defending 1.3671 key support. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm. On the downside, break of 1.4166 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0812; (R1) 1.0844; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. The break of 1.0823 resistance indicates resumption of rise from 1.0629 and carries larger bullish implication. Further rise should now be seen to 1.0897 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0781 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it's completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0823 resistance will affirm this bullish case. Further break of 1.0999 will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0652 support holds.

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD suggest the decline to 1.322 ended Intermediate wave (X). Up from there, the pair is showing 5 waves impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 1.3338, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1.3258, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1.3525, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1.3406. Near term focus is on 1.3596 – 1.364 area to complete Minutte wave (v) and also Minute wave ((a)). The next push higher towards above target should end the cycle from 4/13 low, after which the pair should pullback in Minute wave ((b)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 4/13 low before turning higher again. We don't like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again once Minute wave ((b)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing provided that pivot at 1.322 low remains intact.

USDCAD 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

The EUR, as you can see, gapped 200 pips north at the open after a win by centrist Emmanuel Macron at the French presidential elections on Sunday. Despite this, H4 price very quickly entered into a phase of consolidation between 1.0877/1.0831.

Over on the daily timeframe, we can see that the major recently found support at 1.0850. Should the bulls continue to defend this line, the next area of resistance can be seen at 1.0971. Up on the weekly timeframe, the open forced price above resistance at 1.0819 and the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873, but is now seen trading back below the monthly level. We think the best thing to do on this timeframe is simply wait until the weekly candle closes before presuming that either resistance has been consumed.

Our suggestions: On the H4 chart, levels of interest this morning are as follows:

The 1.08 handle, owing to it converging closely with February’s opening level at 1.0801 and a 50.0% retracement.

The H4 support at 1.0773. Not only does this barrier converge with a 61.8% Fib retracement level at 1.0772, it also fuses with daily support coming in at 1.0772.

To be on the safe side here, we would strongly advise waiting for additional confirmation before attempting to enter long from either of the said levels. Ultimately, a nice-looking H4 bull candle (preferably a full-bodied close) would be ideal here!

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.08 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail). 1.0773 area ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD:  

Cable, as can be seen from the H4 chart, continued to seesaw around the 1.28 handle during Monday’s sessions. Although the pair lost some ground yesterday, the overall structure of this market remains unchanged. Therefore, the crosshairs are still fixed on 1.2750 (green area) for an intraday bounce north today. Why here? Well, not only are mid-level numbers watched by the majority of the market, there’s also a AB=CD 127.2% Fib extension seen nearby at 1.2736 (drawn from the high 1.29) that unites closely with a broken Quasimodo line pegged at 1.2744.

Our rationale behind looking for a bounce off 1.2736/1.2750, apart from the H4 confluence, is also the fact that this zone is planted directly beneath daily support at 1.2774. For that reason, it could perhaps be a nice base to help facilitate a fakeout! The only grumble, of course, is that weekly sellers could still be active from resistance at 1.2789, hence the reason for not expecting much more than an intraday bounce from the H4 area.

Our suggestions: Depending on the time of day, a long from 1.2736/1.2750 looks to be stable enough to consider trading without the need for additional confirmation. Remember though, we do not expect to see much more than a small bounce from this area!

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.2736/1.2750 (stop loss: at least five pips beyond the lower edge of the area).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

AUD/USD

The Aussie started the day at 0.7586, gapping around fifty pips higher than Friday’s closing point. The gap, as you can see though, was quickly filled with price then seen entering into a phase of consolidation between February’s opening level at 0.7578 and the H4 mid-level support 0.7550.

Although weekly bulls have so far failed to generate anything noteworthy out of the support area marked at 0.7524-0.7446, it’s far too early to tell whether the bears are gaining the upper hand, in our opinion. Down on the daily chart, it’s possible that the candles are in the process of forming an AB=CD pattern (black arrows), which, as seen by the AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. at 0.7645, ties in beautifully with supply at 0.7679-0.7640. For that reason, the bulls may still have a hand in this fight.

Our suggestions: Before the buyers come into play, nevertheless, we may see H4 price pullback and test demand at 0.7515-0.7527, which would imply a break of the mid-level support at 0.7550. The reasoning for selecting the said demand, apart from the higher-timeframe direction (see above), is the 61.8% Fib convergence seen at 0.7527 (taken from the low 0.7491). What would make this zone even better would be a solid approach in the form of an AB=CD formation or a three-drive pattern.

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.7515-0.7527 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail or the demand).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/JPY

Having seen the USD/JPY aggressively gap over 150 pips north on Monday after a win by centrist Emmanuel Macron at the French presidential elections, the market then went on to retreat and gave back 50% of this move. Seeing price break back below the 110 handle and test the H4 support area seen at 109.86-109.54 has likely interested some buyers. Longs from this region, however, could be risky though. Weekly price has recently shook hands with a resistance area fixed at 111.44-110.10, and daily action came within a cat’s whisker of clipping the underside of resistance at 110.58. Therefore, we fail to see the bulls sustaining gains beyond the nearby 110 handle today.

Our suggestions: Based on the above points, technicals suggest further downside could be on the cards. And for that reason we’re looking for a H4 close to be seen beyond 109.50. This – coupled within a retest to the underside of this line and a lower-timeframe sell signal (see the top of this report) would be enough evidence to sell, targeting the 109 handle as an initial take-profit target.

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for H4 price to engulf 109.50 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

USD/CAD

Following a retest of daily support at 1.3436, the daily candles are now seen within striking distance of supply coming in at 1.3598-1.3559. Also of particular interest is weekly flow. Despite the bulls looking in fine form at the moment, there’s a well-defined double-top formation seen around the 1.3588 neighborhood (green circle). Therefore, the bears clearly still have a hand in this game!

The recent advance also saw H4 price clear the 1.35 handle, which has consequently placed price within shouting distance of a Quasimodo resistance formed back on the 28th December 2016 at 1.3580. This line – coupled with both weekly and daily structure, has a high probability of working out. However, we must point out that there’s a psychological band sitting just above it at 1.36, so there’s a chance a fakeout may occur.

Our suggestions: To help avoid the possibility of getting stopped on a fakeout, we would simply advise waiting for a H4 bearish candle to form (preferably a full-bodied candle) before committing to a trade.

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.3580 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).

USD/CHF

Monday began with a 60-pip gap south, which came within reaching distance of February’s opening level at 0.9890. As you can see, H4 price quickly made work of the opening gap and then entered into a tight consolidation around the mid-level support 0.9950.

With 0.9950 continuing to hold firm for the time being, will we see parity (1.0000) or even April’s opening level at 1.0016 brought into the picture today? Of course, it’s a possibility, but the daily resistance area at 1.0001-0.9957 seen in play is concerning.

Our suggestions: Personally, we have absolutely no interest in looking for longs today. Should price manage to reach parity/April’s opening level, nevertheless, a short from between these two lines is something we would be attracted to given the daily resistance area. What would interest us even more, of course, would be a reasonably sized H4 bear candle forming out of this H4 zone (preferably a full-bodied candle), essentially providing us with added confirmation.

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.0016/1.0000 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).

DOW 30

US equities gapped 100 points north on Monday, which eventually lifted the index above the H4 resistance area at 20754-20717. Given that the bulls seem to be establishing support on the retest of this zone, will we see March’s opening base line at 20824 brought into view? It’s certainly a possibility, but not really something we’d be interested in buying in to. The reason being is simply because the daily candles are seen trading within the walls of a resistance area coming in at 20714-20821. Therefore, instead of looking for long plays, we’re more inclined to consider shorting March’s opening level seeing as it sits just three points above the said daily resistance area.

Our suggestions: While a short from 20824 is likely to produce a bounce, it might be worth noting that weekly action could potentially break to fresh highs in the near future. As such, to sell 20824, we would strongly recommend waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to take shape before committing (see the top of this report).

Data points to consider: US CB consumer confidence, along with new home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 20824 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form is advised] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

GOLD

After a somewhat hostile beginning to the week, the yellow metal seems to have found refuge around a H4 support area coming in at 1266.0-1270.7. This area, as you can probably see, houses a weekly support level at 1263.7 and also sits just on top of a daily support zone drawn from 1265.2-1252.1. In view of this, we ultimately expect the gold market to advance this week, at least filling the weekend gap and maybe touching base with H4 supply at 1292.5-1289.2.

Our suggestions: Quite simply, what we’re looking for H4 price to achieve today is a retest of the current support area. Should this occur, we’ll then be looking for a reasonably sized H4 bullish rotation candle (preferably full-bodied) to take shape. Only then would our team look to buy this market, with hopes of riding bullion up to at least the close of the weekend gap around the 1283.4ish range.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1266.0-1270.7 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail or the support area).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0823; (P) 1.0863 (R1) 1.0906; More....

With 1.0777 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. Rise form 1.0339 is in progress and would extend higher towards 1.1298 resistance. But still, such rally is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd pay attention to topping signal above 1.0905 and below 1.1298 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.0777 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2763; (P) 1.2800; (R1) 1.2828; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2903 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.2614 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.2871 will target 161.8% retracement at 1.3184. Still, price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a correction. Hence we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2614 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2365 support first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.