Sample Category Title

'A weaker dollar, Korean tensions and the uncertainty with regard to the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations all have the potential to boost gold higher over the short-term.' – Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal's price declined. However, the bullion had found and revealed the proper borders of a medium term ascending channel pattern during Monday's trading. The lower trend line of the pattern provided support for a rebound of the metal, and it continued to support the bullion on Tuesday. It is highly possible that the trend line will push the commodity price through the resistance levels, which it faces from 1,274 to 1,278. On the other hand, if the support is passed, the bullion could fall to the weekly S2, which is located at 1,263.56.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX sentiment remains almost unchanged, as 56% of open positions are short, and 63% of set up orders are to buy the bullion.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
    •    Time of formation: 16 Jan 2017
    •    Trend bias: Down

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
    •    Time of formation: 18 Apr 2017
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

GBP/USD – 1.2808



Last week’s rally to as high as 1.2906 adds credence to our view that another leg of the corrective rise from 1.1986 low (Jan low) is underway and upside bias remains for further gain to 1.2940-50, then towards 1.3000 psychological resistance, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3090-00 and 1.3140-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) would hold on first testing, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.



On the downside, whilst initial pullback towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2693) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2650-60 and bring another rise later. Below 1.2600-10 would defer and risk test of previous resistance at 1.2575, however, a daily close below this level is needed to suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of support at 1.2515. Only a drop below this level would add credence to this view, then subsequent fall towards 1.2440-50 but support at 1.2365 should remain intact, bring another rise later. 



Recommendation: Buy at 1.2710 for 1.2910 with stop below 1.2610. 

On the weekly chart, as cable has maintained a firm undertone after last week’s rally above resistance at 1.2706 and 1.2775, adding credence to our bullish view that the erratic rise from this year’s low at 1.1986 has resumed and near term upside bias remains for this rise to bring retracement of early decline and gain to 1.2900-10 and then 1.2940-50 would be seen, however, reckon psychological resistance at 1.3000 would limit upside and price should falter well below 1.3140-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986), bring retreat later.  



On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.2750 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to another previous resistance at 1.2706 and bring another rise later. Below 1.2640-50 would risk test of previous resistance at 1.2616, break there would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 1.2550-60 but last week’s low at 1.2515 should hold, bring another rise later. Only a drop below 1.2500 would abort and signal top is formed instead, then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2446) would follow but support at 1.2365 should remain intact. 


Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
    •    Time of formation: 26 Sep 2016
    •    Trend bias: Sideways

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
    •    Time of formation: 25 Oct 2016
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

USD/CHF – 0.9978

Although the greenback opened lower yesterday and fell to as low as 0.9893, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and as long as this support holds, prospect of another bounce 1.0000-08 resistance remains, a daily close above there would signal low is formed, then gain to 1.0025-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9893) would be seen, however, break of 1.0067 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the retreat from 1.0108 has ended, bring retest of this level later, break there would extend the rebound from 0.9813 towards key resistance at 1.0171. Looking ahead, only a sustained breach above this level would add credence to our view that the erratic decline from 1.0344 top has ended at 0.9813, bring further rise to 1.0200-10, then 1.0250 but price should falter well below said resistance at 1.0344 (2016 high).

On the downside, below said support at 0.9893 would abort and signal the rebound from 0.9813 has ended instead, bring another fall to this level. Looking ahead, only a drop below said support at 0.9813 would revive bearishness and signal the decline from 1.0344 top has resumed instead and extend further fall to 0.9735-40 (76.4% retracement of 0.9550-1.0344) and later towards 0.9700 but reckon 0.9650-60 would hold.

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 0.9990 for 1.0190 with stop below 0.9890.

On the weekly chart, although dollar opened lower yesterday, still reckon the upper Kumo (now at 0.9886) would limit downside and bring rebound later to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9992) but break of resistance at 1.0067 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the retreat from 1.0108 has ended, bring retest of this level. A break above 1.0108 would extend the rebound from 0.9813 to resistance at 1.0171, however, a weekly close above this level is needed to confirm the fall from 1.0344 top has ended at 0.9813, bring further subsequent rise towards key resistance at 1.0248. A sustained breach above this level would signal early upmove has possibly resumed, bring test of 1.0335-44 resistance area, above there would provide confirmation and headway to 1.0400-10 and later 1.0500 would follow.

On the downside, below the upper Kumo (now at 0.9886) would defer but only break of indicated support at 0.9813 would abort and signal the erratic fall from 1.0344 top is still in progress, bring further decline for retracement of early upmove to 0.9735-40, then 0.9700 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9640-50 and price should stay well above support at 0.9550.

USD/CHF - 0.9954

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9957

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9951

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9947

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9945

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite dropping to 0.9893 yesterday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation above this level would be seen and another bounce to 0.9975-80 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0000 (said resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9893) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below said support at 0.9893 would extend the fall from 1.0108 top to 0.9865-70 (2 times extension of 1.0108-1.0008 measuring from 1.0067) but support at 0.9831 would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above previous support at 1.0008 would suggest low is formed instead, bring rebound to 1.0025-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9893) but price should falter below resistance at 1.0067.

GBP/USD - 1.2807

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2797

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2803

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2808

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2805

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Cable has remained confined within near term established range and further sideways trading is in store, whilst another test of Friday’s low at 1.2757 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside should be limited to 1.2700-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and bring another rally, break of 1.2859 would signal the pullback from 1.2906 has ended, bring retest of this level, above there would extend recent upmove to 1.2920-30 (2 times extension of 1.2365-1.2575 measuring from 1.2500), then 1.2950 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2990-00 (1.236 times projection of 1.2109-1.2616 measuring from 1.2365 and psychological resistance). 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on subsequent pullback as downside should be limited to 1.2710 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906), bring another rise. Below 1.2700 would defer and signal top has been formed, risk correction to 1.2660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and price should stay well above 1.2608-16 (previous resistance now support).

EUR/USD

Current level - 10865

The intraday bias is neutral above 1.0828 minor support, but a break through the latter will challenge 1.0780 area. Key resistance lies at 1.0940.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 110.19

Yesterday's corrective pullback filled the gap above 109.40 and the outlook is positive, for a rise towards 111.50 area. 

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2795

The lack of trend dynamics here signals a break through 1.2770, for a dip to 1.2705 support area. 

EUR/USD - 1.0887

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0873

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0864

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0835

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0809

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Euro’s retreat after rising to 1.0936 yesterday suggests consolidation below this level would be seen but reckon downside would be limited to 1.0850 and support at 1.0821 should hold, bring another rise later, above 1.0936 resistance would signal recent erratic upmove from 1.0340 has resumed and extend gain to 1.0975-80 and possibly towards 1.1000 which is likely to hold from here due to loss of momentum.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.0850 would bring test of said support at 1.0821 but break there is needed to signal top has possibly been formed, then fall to previous resistance at 1.0778 (now support) would follow, break there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to 1.0750.

Near-term action remains unchanged and holding within 1.2770/1.2859 consolidation range under last week's fresh multi-month high at 1.2904.

Strong support has formed at 1.2770 (consolidation range floor, also former high of 06 Dec) where repeated downside attempts were contained.

The downside is reinforced by 1.2755 (Friday's spike low/Fibo 38.2% of 1.2513/1.2904 upleg), however, risk of deeper pullback remains in play as slow stochastic is turning down on daily chart, after reversing from overbought territory.

Firm break below 1.2770/55 supports would risk extension to 1.2700 (rising daily Tenkan-sen).

Otherwise, extended consolidation would look for bullish signal for renewed attempt at 1.2904 and possible extension towards 1.3000 barrier as overall structure is bullish.

Res: 1.2838, 1.2859, 1.2904, 1.2986
Sup: 1.2770, 1.2755, 1.2700, 1.2663

USD/JPY - 110.30

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.98

Kijun-Sen level                  : 109.98

Ichimoku cloud top             : 109.98

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 109.66

Original strategy  :

Buy at 109.30, Target: 110.30, Stop: 108.95

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback found good support at 109.59 and has rebounded, break of yesterday’s high at 110.60 is needed to signal recent upmove from 108.13 low has resumed and may extend further gain to 110.90-00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 111.25-30 and price should falter well below resistance at 111.58, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 109.90-95 would risk another retreat to 109.59 but break of previous resistance at 109.49 is needed to signal top is formed instead, bring correction of recent rise to 109.05-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 108.13-110.60).

The Euro pauses after Monday's surge to fresh 5 ½ month high at 1.0916, consolidating around the mid-point of Monday's 1.0819/1.0916 range. Monday's close above 200SMA is bullish signal, along with long-tailed daily candle, formed on strong downside rejection at 1.0819 (weekly Kijun-sen).

Dip-buying scenario for fresh upside attempts will remain favored while the price holds above 200SMA.

Daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen cross, formed after yesterday's rally, underpins.

Near-term focus is on 1.0916 high and weekly 55SMA at 1.0934, break of which would expose psychological 1.1000 barrier, also weekly 100SMA.

Further bullish acceleration may extend towards weekly cloud base at 1.1067.

Negative scenario requires break below 1.0835/19 (200SMA / weekly Kijun-sen) to signal stronger downside action.

Res: 1.0887, 1.0916, 1.0934, 1.1000
Sup: 1.0849, 1.0836, 1.0819, 1.0777