Sample Category Title

EUR/USD - 1.0605

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0665, Target: 1.0565, Stop: 1.0700

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0665, Target: 1.0565, Stop: 1.0700

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has recovered again after finding support at 1.0595 earlier today, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and initial upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.0570 low to extend gain to 1.0630, then 1.0650, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0667 resistance (Friday’s high) and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.0595 would bring retest of Monday’s low at 1.0570, break there would extend the decline from 1.0906 to 1.0550-55 (50% projection of 1.0906-1.0635 measuring from 1.0689), then 1.0525-30.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on further recovery as 1.0667 resistance should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.0667 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.0689, then 1.0702.

USD/JPY - 109.70

Original strategy  :

Sell at 110.30, Target: 109.30, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 110.30, Target: 109.30, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s selloff below support at 110.11 on active cross-buying in yen in part due to risk aversion suggests recent entire decline 118.66 top is still in progress, hence downside bias remains for recent decline to extend weakness to 109.30-35, then towards 109.00-05 (123.6 times projection of 112.20-110.13 measuring from 111.58), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 108.85 (61.8% projection of 115.51-110.11 measuring from 112.20) and reckon 108.40-50 (100% projection of 118.66-111.55 measuring from 115.51) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 110.30-40 should cap upside and bring another decline. Above 110.70-75 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 111.00-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 111.58.

EUR/CHF Choppy trading.

EUR/CHF has paused near the key support at 1.0684 (see also the falling channel). However, the persistent succession of lower highs favours a bearish bias. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.0691 (07/04/2017 high). The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Expected to see further decline.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Challenging the support at 115.95.

EUR/JPY recovery bounce off support was short lived and is not challenging the trendline support at 115.95. Next support is given at 113.73 (09/11/2016 low). Resistance stands at 117.43 then 122.88 (13/03/0217 high).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Break below rising trendline.

EUR/GBP remains weak as can be seen by the clear break of falling trendline support at 0.8536. Support stands at 0.8450 (03/01/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.8591 (05/04/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 0.8484 (31/03/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF : 1.0686





 

EUR/CHF: Major wave 5 trough ended at 0.8426 and correction has commenced from there for subsequent gain towards 1.1400-1.1500.

 

The single currency met resistance at 1.0727 last week and has retreated again, retaining our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for the retreat from 1.0825 (last month’s high) to extend weakness to 1.0650-60, however, break of support at 1.0622 is needed to confirm early erratic decline from 1.1201 (2016 high) has resumed, bring subsequent selloff to 1.0550 and possibly towards 1.0500 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and reckon 1.0390-00 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.
 
To recap our preferred count, the decline from 1.6828 (end wave (B)) is labeled as the beginning of wave (C) which should unfold as an impulsive move with 1: 1.5326, 2: 1.6377 and wave 3 is sub-divided into (i): 1.4300, (ii): 1.5880 and wave (iii) is still unfolding with (1): 1.4577, (2): 1.5448 and wave (3) is an extended 3rd with i: 1.5006, ii: 1.5383, wave iii: 1.3073, then wave iv ended at 1.3925 and wave v at 1.3073, wave (4) ended at 1.3925 and wave (5) has ended at 1.2765 which also marked the low of wave (iii) and wave (iv) has ended at 1.3835 and wave (v) as well as larger degree wave 3 has ended at 1.0075. The selloff from 1.2650 signals wave 4 has ended there and we are taking a view that the wave 5 could also have ended 0.8426, hence consolidation is seen with mild upside bias for rebound to 1.1000 first, then towards 1.1400.
 
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.0727 and bring another decline. Only above said resistance at 1.0825 would abort and signal low has been formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0850 and later towards resistance at 1.0898 which is likely to cap euro’s upside, the pair shall head back south again from there.

Recommendation: Hold short entered at 1.0750 for 1.0550 with stop lowered to break-even.

The long-term downtrend started from 1.9626 (Apr 1985) to 1.4166 (Sep 1995) is treated as wave (A) with A:1.6285 (Dec 1987), B: 1.9342 (May 1992) and C: 1.4166, then wave (B) ended at 1.6828 with A: 1.7147 (Feb 1997), B: 1.4398 (Sep 2001), C: 1.6828 (Nov 2007), therefore, wave (C) is now in progress with the breakdown indicated as above. This wave (C) already met indicated downside target at 1.1455/60 and 1.1300, it could have ended at 0.8426, consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1000 and later towards 1.2000.

USD/CHF Remains weak.

USD/CHF is consolidating below new high at 1.0107. Hourly support is given at 1.0039 (07/04/2017 base low) then 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0171 (07/03/2017) then 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show another leg higher.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Weak recovery bounce.

USD/CAD is trying to bounce yet demand is thin. Short-term bullish technical pattern has quickly reversed, indicating further downside pressure. Key support is given at 1.3265 (21/03/2016 low) is in focus then 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low). Resistance can be located at 1.3427 (10/04/2017 high) then 1.3456 (04/04/2017 range high).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Remains weak.

AUD/USD weak bounce near the support has thus far unimpressive failed to find momentum, confirming persistent selling pressures. Next meaningful support is located at 0.7449 (13/01/2017 low). Resistance can be located at 0.7515 (intraday high and downtrend channel top). • In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

AUD/USD     –  0.7574




AUD/USD – Wave 5 of C and (B) has possibly ended at 1.1081




Aussie has dropped sharply last week and finally broke below support at 0.7491, suggesting recent entire rise from 0.7158 has indeed ended at 0.775 last month, hence further choppy trading within early established range would be seen and downside risk remains for the decline from 0.7750 to bring at least a strong correction of the aforesaid rise, initial downside target is seen at 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), then towards 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7300-10 and reckon 0.7280-85 would hold from here, bring rebound later. 


We are keeping our count that top has been formed at 1.1081 (wave 5 of V) and major correction (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) has commenced, indicated downside targets at 0.7945 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.6007-1.1081) and 0.7750 had been met and downside bias is seen for further weakness to 0.6800, then 0.6700 but reckon 0.6500 would hold from here.



Our preferred count is that the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C with wave (iii) and wave (iv) ended at 0.8265 and 0.7700 respectively and wave (v) as well as 3 ended at 0.9407, then wave 4 ended at 0.8066 (instead of 0.8578). The wave 5 has met our indicated projection target of 1.1060 and could ended at 1.1081, this level is now treated as the peak of wave (C) as well as larger degree wave B, hence major fall in wave C has commenced, our initial downside target at psychological support at 0.7000 has just been met and further weakness to 0.6500 would be seen later.



On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 0.7535-40 is likely, reckon 0.7370-80 would limit upside and bring another decline later to aforesaid downside retracement targets. A daily close above previous support at 0.7587 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7640-45 but only break of resistance at 0.7680 would abort and suggest the fall from 0.7750 has ended instead, 



Recommendation: Sell at 0.7570 for 0.7390 with stop below 0.7670



Our alternate count on the daily chart treated the top formed in 2008 at 0.9851 could be a larger degree wave I and was followed by a deep and sharp correction in wave II to 0.6007 and wave III is unfolding from there.

The long-term uptrend started from 0.4775 (2 Apr 2001) with an impulsive structure. Wave I is labeled as 0.4775 to 0.9851 (15 Jul 2008), wave II has ended at 0.6007 (Oct 2008) and wave III is still in progress which may extend further gain to 1.1265.

EUR/USD Trying to form a short-term base.

EUR/USD is trying to bounce. Hourly support can be found at 1.0570 (i11.04.2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0494 (22/02/2017 low). Resistance can be located at a distant 1.0658 (07/07/2017 reaction high). Expected to see further short-term weakness.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Bounce gains momentum.

GBP/USD has bounced near the key support at 1.2334, suggesting a potential short-term base formation. The falling trendline resistances at 1.2500 has been breached. Hourly resistance can be located at 1.2506 and key resistance stands at1.2605 (27/03/2017 high). An hourly support can be found at 1.2405 (11/04/2017 low).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Bearish break of horizontal support.

USD/JPY has broken to the downside out of the horizontal support at 110.11 confirming a bearish bias. Other key supports lie at a distant 106.04 (11/11/2016 low). An hourly resistance can be found at 110.11, while a key resistance stands at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

Spot Gold remains tall on Wednesday and consolidating above $1270 handle, following strong rally on Tuesday (the biggest one-day gains since 15 Mar), inspired by safe haven buying on rising geopolitical tensions.

Fresh extension higher in early Wednesday posted new 2017 high at $1279, which also marks the highest traded since 10 Nov 2016.

Tuesday’s rally also generated strong bullish signal on eventual close above $1255 (Fibo 61.8% of $1337/$1122 descend).

Bulls are now focusing targets at $1286 (Fibo 76.4% retracement) and $1292 (weekly cloud top), as global political uncertainty maintains strong bullish sentiment for gold.

Rally may be interrupted by mild corrections, with last Friday’s spike high at $1270 marking immediate support, followed by former top of 27 Feb at $1263 and rising daily

Tenkan-sen / broken 200SMA at $1259/57, expected to contain extended downticks.

Res: 1279, 1286, 1292, 1295
Sup: 1270, 1263, 1259, 1257

The pair is holding within narrow consolidation for the third day, after denting key short-term support at 0.7489 (09 Mar low), but was so far unable to close below and signal bearish continuation.

Tuesday's long-legged Doji signaled strong indecision, but so far lacking reversal signals, as 100SMA (0.7513) continues to cap.

Slow stochastic is attempting to reverse from oversold r=territory on the daily chart, which would generate initial bullish signal, however, confirmation of reversal would require lift above next pivot, 200SMA at 0.7550, which is reinforced by falling 10SMA that is approaching in attempt to form bear-cross and intensify downside pressure.

Daily studies are in firm bearish mode and suggest further extension of the wave C (on which the pair is currently riding) through its FE 138.2% (current low at 0.7472) towards the base of thick daily cloud at 0.7449 and FE 161.8% at 0.7436.

Extended consolidation ahead of fresh push lower is seen as likely near-term scenario.

Res: 0.7513, 0.7550, 0.7585, 0.7596
Sup: 0.7472, 0.7449, 0.7436, 0.7400

EUR/JPY - 116.41

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy:

Sell at 119.00, Target: 117.00, Stop: 119.60

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Sell at 118.00, Target: 116.00, Stop: 118.60

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Yesterday’s selloff adds credence to our bearish view that recent entire fall from 124.10 top is still in progress and downside bias remains for further weakness to 115.50-60, then towards 115.00, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and reckon 114.40-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a much-needed rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell euro on subsequent rebound as 117.90-00 should limit upside. Above 118.40-45 would defer and suggest low is possibly formed, risk test of resistance at 118.80 but break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 119.06 resistance first. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).