Sample Category Title

USD/JPY - 109.63

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.55

Kijun-Sen level                  : 110.04

Ichimoku cloud top             : 110.94

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 110.86

New strategy  :

Sell at 110.30, Target: 109.30, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s selloff below support at 110.11 on active cross-buying in yen in part due to risk aversion suggests recent entire decline 118.66 top is still in progress, hence downside bias remains for recent decline to extend weakness to 109.30-35, then towards 109.00-05 (123.6 times projection of 112.20-110.13 measuring from 111.58), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 108.85 (61.8% projection of 115.51-110.11 measuring from 112.20) and reckon 108.40-50 (100% projection of 118.66-111.55 measuring from 115.51) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 110.30-40 should cap upside and bring another decline. Above 110.70-75 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 111.00-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 111.58.

The G-7 Nations acting like the League of Nations seems to have finally opened the floodgates as markets seek safe havens ahead of the Easter break.

As expected, in all honesty, the G-7 officials meeting about a recalcitrant Russia produced nothing new on the sanctions front. Talk of vested interests amongst the G-7 members is perhaps a bit harsh when cool heads should prevail. It did give an overall look of appeasement though, and this seems to have stirred the U.S. markets into action with the theme of the session being seeking safe havens anywhere.

Gold rose 20 USD to 1275, U.S 10-year yields fell below 2.30%, and the USD/JPY dropped 100 points and finally broken the crucial level at 110.00. Elsewhere the U.S. Index (DXY) pushed slightly lower, and the Korean Won fell to just shy of the psychological 1150 level.

The theme continues in Asia with equities generally in the red to start the session. Most notably the Nikkei and Kospi. Precious metals continue to be bid across the board; the U.S 10-year trades at 2.28% and both Brent and WTI have moved higher. Tensions in Europe, the Middle East and the Korean Peninsular have made the geopolitical situation more complicated than re-writing the United Airlines customer service manual.

As Easter approaches Asia, in particular, is focusing on this Easter Friday which is the anniversary of the birthday of the North Korean founder, Kim Il-sung. The North would normally do “something” on this day, as is their want. This year, it’s an almost global holiday, and given the present backdrop, it will have more poignancy. This should ensure that Asia remains solidly in a risk-off mode for the rest of the week, come what may in other centres.

Looking at the markets in Asia today.

FX

USD/JPY

The story of the night as repatriation flows turned to a deluge and USD/JPY finally cracked the 110.00 level. The USD/JPY continues to trade heavily in Asia with the Nikkei. However, those expecting a wholesale collapse may be disappointed as the USD/JPY enters oversold territory on the RSI.

The 110.00 level is now resistance followed by 111.50.

Support appears initially at the 50% Fibonacci at 109.13 and then the 200-day moving average at 108.55.

EUR/JPY

It is reasonable to assume that every cross ending in XXX/JPY didn’t have a great night. EUR/JPY being no exception with its 2nd consecutive close below its 200-day moving average. However, I do note that the cross is now very oversold on it RSI and Stochastic.

Resistance is at the top of its downward parallel channel at 117.80 which is also the area of the 200-day moving average. Initial support is around 80 points away at the bottom of the channel at 115.50. A breakout from here would set the

Initial support is around 80 points away at the bottom of the channel at 115.50. A breakout from here would set the scene technically for a move sub 114.00.

USD/CNH

Quietly appreciated against the USD in the Asian session as the PBOC refrained from open market operations yet again. A slightly softer than expected CPI read of -0.3 % M/M saw a small reversal as the edge was taken of tightening expectations.

With USD/CNH trading at 6.9020 as I write, the key levels continue to be 6.8400 and 6.9300 with the cross continuing to range.

PRECIOUS METALS

GOLD

Precious metals were big movers overnight including gold. The 1.60% move higher to 1275 where we are now trading is significant because we have finally had a close above the 200-day moving average after failures all year.

Apart from being an obvious beneficiary of the delayed safe-haven trade, from a technical perspective, the charts point to a move above 1300 now.

Support is clearly delineated at the 200-day moving average at 1257.50 and 1240.

Resistance is at the Asia session high of 1280 before a triple top from October at 1308. However, traders should keep an eye on the RSI and Stochastics for signs of bearish divergence.

SILVER

Rose 2.40% in overnight trading to 18.3250 following gold as a safe haven darling. Asia has had another look at the upside to 18.4400 before falling back to roughly unchanged at 18.3250.

Silver has key resistance just above here at 18.4500 where it has failed multiple times, most recently last Friday. A close above clearly opens a technical move to 19.0000 on the charts.

Support meanwhile, lies at 18.0725 the 200-day moving average and then yesterday’s lows at 17.9000.

ASIA INDICES

NIKKEI 225

The Nikkei has fallen over 1.0% today as the large move up in the Yen vs. the USD saw exporter stocks sold. The ongoing situation with Toshiba and its non-endorsed accounts continues to weigh as well, with delisting a real possibility. The YEN appreciation on safe haven flows and a compressing of the US/Japan yield spreads will continue to weigh on the index. The Nikkei continues to bump along its four-month lows.

The Nikkei has intraday support at 18.585 with a daily close below suggesting a move to the next support around 18200. We have traded below this level today, but a recent bounce to 18626 means it is the daily close we must watch.

The Nikkei has resistance at 18945, Monday’s high and then the 19145/19225 zone, the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

SUMMARY

Global tensions and a rush to safety ruled the New York session, and this has followed through to Asia. The break of 110 in USD/JPY is extremely significant. With a long weekend globally nearly upon us and further North Korea risk this Friday, the safety first theme is likely to continue.

Market movers today

In the UK, the labour market report for March is due. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) will be unchanged at 4.7% while we estimate the annual growth rate in average weekly earnings (3M average) declined to 2.0% y/y from 2.3% y/y. The combination of higher inflation and slower wage growth means real wage growth is turning negative, implying less scope for private consumption growth. This is one of the reasons why we expect UK GDP growth to slow this year. Indeed, we have seen the first signs that this is actually happening. In recent months, retail sales have plunged the most since the financial crisis and although it is a weak indicator, it is a sign that private consumption growth has actually slowed.

Otherwise, there is very lit t le happening on the data and macro front ahead of the Easter holiday

Note. Due to the Easter holidays, the next publication of Danske Daily will be Tuesday 18 April.

Selected market news

Geopolitical tensions keep rising as the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson accused Russia of t rying to shield Syria's government from the blame for a deadly gas at tack (full story Reuters). However, in a Fox interview, Donald Trump stated that he has no plans of 'going into Syria'. Tensions are also rising on the Korean peninsula, where the Japanese navy plans to joins the US navy in deterring the North Korean regime from further missile tests.

Swedish inflation decreased in March (CPI: 1.3% and CPIF: 1.5%) and printed well below both market expectations and t he Riksbank's t arget . While t he t iming of East er holds some of the explanat ion (some rebound can be expected in April), the Riksbank's chances of reaching the 2% inflat ion target over the next couple of years seem slim, given that significant wage drift on top of cent ral wages will be necessary, a t rend not observed in recent years.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Minist ry of Finance have released their balance of payment data (i.e. Japanese investor flows ) for February. While the Japanese investor decreased their holdings of foreign debt generally, the most noteworthy was the fact that Japanese investors accounted for net selling of more than EUR12bn of French government bonds, while increasing t heir purchases of German government bonds. This 'safe haven' flow is likely to be closely related to the polit ical uncertainty stemming from the upcoming French election.

Yesterday's risk-off moves seen in the European and American markets have spilled into the Asian session, with Hang Seng t rading slight ly lower and Nikkei losing some 1.2% at the t ime of writ ing. It should be noted that USD/JPY has moved below the 110 mark for the first time since mid-November last year and has been trading in the 109.40-109.50 range this morning.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.12% against the USD and closed at 0.7502.

LME Copper prices rose 0.3% or $15.0/MT to $5746.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.1% or $21.5/MT to $1907.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7485, with the AUD trading 0.23% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier in the session, data revealed that Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index dropped 0.7% in April, following a gain of 0.1% in the preceding month.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the consumer price index (CPI) rose less-than-anticipated by 0.9% YoY in March, compared to market expectations for an advance of 1.0% and following a gain of 0.8% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's producer price index climbed more-than-anticipated 7.6% YoY in March, after recording a rise of 7.8% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7466, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7446. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.751, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7534.

Looking ahead, Australia's unemployment rate data for March, slated to release tomorrow, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.0604, following upbeat ZEW survey data across the Euro-zone.

Data revealed that the Euro-zone's ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly climbed to a level of 26.3 in April, while markets anticipated for a fall to a level of 25.0. In the prior month, the index had recorded a reading of 25.6. On the contrary, the region's seasonally adjusted industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, confounding market expectations for a gain of 0.1% and following a revised rise of 0.3% in the prior month.

Additionally, confidence among German investors improved to its highest level since August 2015, after the index jumped more-than-expected to a level of 19.5 in April, as the Euro-bloc's largest economy proved fairly robust in the first quarter. The index had registered a level of 12.8 in the prior month, whereas markets were anticipating for an advance to a level of 14.8.

In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index registered a drop to a level of 104.7 in March, in line with market expectations and compared to a level of 105.3 in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's JOLTs job openings advanced more-than-anticipated to a seven-month high level of 5743.0K in

February, compared to market consensus for a rise to a level of 5650.0K and after recording a revised reading of 5625.0K in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0599, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0574, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0549. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0627, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0655.

With no major economic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors will look forward to the US monthly budget statement for March, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.54% against the USD and closed at 1.2487, after the latest data indicated that UK's annual inflation remained above the Bank of England's 2.0% target in March.

Britain's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% on an annual basis in March, at par with market expectations, as cheaper airfares and falling petrol costs helped to offset a rise in food and clothing prices. The CPI had registered a similar rise in the prior month. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the CPI increased more-than-anticipated by 0.4% in March, compared to an advance of 0.7% in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a gain of 0.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2484, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2425, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2366. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2519, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2554.

Moving ahead, all eyes would be on a speech by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, due in a few hours. Additionally, UK's ILO unemployment report for the three months to February, will garner a significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.96% against the JPY and closed at 109.67.

On the data front, Japan's flash machine tool orders rose 22.6% on an annual basis in March. In the previous month, machine tool orders had advanced 9.1%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.47, with the USD trading 0.18% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that the nation's machinery orders rebounded 1.5% MoM in February, less than market expectations for a rise of 3.6% and following a drop of 3.2% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.94, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.41. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.39, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.31.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 1.0074.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0077, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0057, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0037. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0113.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the CAD and closed at 1.3328.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3333, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3308, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3282. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3358, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3382.

Ahead in the day, traders would focus on the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision. Markets widely expect the central bank to hold rates steady at 0.50%.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

EUR/USD

The EURUSD pair held within narrow range in Asia and early Europe, with fresh lows at 1.0570, forming hourly double-bottom that underpinned near-term price action. Base of thin daily Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.0584 and 1.0614, kept the downside protected, despite several probes below.

Little change was seen on late Monday's comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as she said nothing new and gave no firmer signals about the timing of next rate hike that traders were awaiting.

The pair received support from European data and spiked at 1.0620 in mid-European session. German ZEW data showed investor morale rose to its highest level since Aug 2015, surging to 19.5 in April from 12.8 in March and well above consensus at 14.0. Economic sentiment in the largest European economy brightened after strong first quarter, on concerns about protectionism from Trump's administration.

Eurozone industrial output fell by 0.3% in February on m/m but rose by 1.2% y/y. However both releases were below forecasts for increase by 0.1% m/m and by 2.0% y/y. Decline in Industrial Output was mainly due to a sharp drop in energy production.

Despite weaker than expected Eurozone data the single currency held bullish near-term sentiment and remained above 1.0600 handle.

Beginning of the US session brought more activities in the markets. The US dollar fell across the board on increasing geopolitical risk and declining US Treasury yields that prompted traders to heavily exit dollar positions.

The EURUSD spiked to 1.0630, the highest of the US session but was unable to hold gains and returned back to 1.0600 zone.

The action signalled that the Euro is lacking momentum for stronger upside action and firm break above strong barriers, formed by daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0614 and 100SMA at 1.0622. Despite initial signals of recovery, the pair is still holding in the dangerous zone below 1.0614/22 barriers that keeps the downside at risk.

Sustained break above the latter barriers is needed to generate stronger bullish signal. Otherwise, likely near-term scenario would be extended directionless trading within the cloud, with prevailing bearish bias on negative daily technical studies.

Support: 1.0584, 1.0570, 1.0525, 1.0494

Resistance: 1.0614, 1.0630, 1.0669, 1.0690

USD/JPY

Japanese yen was among the top gainers on Tuesday and rose above 110.00 barrier against the US dollar. Yen received strong boost by rising geopolitical tensions over North Korea and Syria, as investors rushed into safe haven assets on fears that current tensions might escalate on rising possibilities of US military action in these two countries. Tensions over Syria brought relations between America and Russia to the lowest levels since the cold war era, with serious threats that current verbal conflict may escalate.

Strong safe haven yen-buying pushed the USDJPY eventually below key 110.00 support, after the pair traded for more than two weeks above 110.00, where near-term base was formed. Break below 110.00 could accelerate on triggering stops below and could extend the wave C (on which the pair is currently riding) of five-wave cycle from 118.60, towards its Fibonacci 100% expansion at 108.48.

Lomg bearish daily candle that was formed on Tuesday is expected to weigh on near-term action.

Broken 110.00 support is now acting as initial resistance which guards falling daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 110.90), where also Tuesday's high lies.

Daily studies in firm bearish setup are supportive for further weakness.

Support: 109.60, 109.00, 108.48, 107.80

Resistance: 110.00, 110.30, 110.53, 110.90

GBP/USD

Cable ended the second day positively and nearly fully retraced last Thu/Fri 1.2505/1.2365 descend. After Monday's trading was limited within narrowing daily Ichimoku cloud, sterling received support from solid UK inflation numbers that stayed steady in March, coming unchanged at 2.3%. Release at/above forecasted level was broadly seen as supportive, as pound initially spiked to 1.2445, after data, but spent some time in consolidation until markets digested the data. Fresh action higher then accelerated on strong dollar's weakness, breaking above next pivot at 1.2460 (daily Tenkan-sen) and extending near round-figure 1.2500 barrier.

Overall bullish structure of daily studies was confirmed by surge above daily cloud / Tenkan-sen, also emerging above cluster of daily Moving Averages (100 / 55 / 20SMA) which also formed multiple bull-crosses, underpinning for further upside.

Firm break above last Thursday's high at 1.2505 will generate another bullish signal.

The pair will be also focusing release of UK jobs data and speech of BOE's Governor Carney, for further signals.

UK jobless claims are expected to fall in March, according to -3.0K forecast vs Feb's fall to -11.3K. Unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.7% in Feb, as well as Average Earnings at 2.2% in Feb.

Support: 1.2460, 1.2426, 1.2403, 1.2365

Resistance: 1.2491, 1.2505, 1.2555, 1.2596

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar has left the second consecutive Doji candle after broader descend from 0.7747 high showed signs of stall. The pair found footstep 0.7473, above which is holding for the second day, but within limited consolidation that is so far capped by 100SMA at 0.7513. Extended daily studies warn of corrective bounce, as slow stochastic is reversing in deep oversold territory, but without firmer bullish signal for now.

The pair is holding deeply in thick daily Ichimoku cloud, with bearish studies signalling further weakness towards key support at 0.7449 )daily cloud base.

However, break out of current congestion is required for fresh direction signals. Strong barriers at 0.7513/50 (100/200SMA's) would likely limit extended upticks, while only sustained break above 200SMA pivot would generate stronger correction signal.

Data from Australia, released on Tuesday, showed Australian business conditions jumped in March to highs not seen since before global financial crisis. Australia's NAB monthly survey of more than 400 firms showed its index climbed to+14 in March, well above long run average at +5. Upbeat data, however, did not show stronger impact on pair's performance on Tuesday.

Support: 0.7473, 0.7449, 0.7400, 0.7384

Resistance: 0.7514, 0.7550, 0.7576, 0.7611

GBPCAD

The GBPCAD pair rallied strongly on Tuesday, on fresh strength of sterling and neutralized strong downside risk that mounted of steep fall in past three days. Descend was contained by pivotal support at 1.6532 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6311/1.6888 ascend) and subsequent bounce retraced 50% of the latest 1.6800/1.6515 downleg.

Daily technicals are returning into firmer bullish setup, as converged 55/100 SMA's remained intact and rally broke above 20 SMA's. Fresh rally also improved momentum studies, showing scope for fresh attack at 1.6693 pivot (200SMA).

Rally is looking for final break above thick hourly Ichimoku cloud at 1.6658, to confirm bullish resumption.

Corrective dips are expected to hold above round-figure 1.6600 support, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line.

Support: 1.6624, 1.6600, 1.6535, 1.6515

Resistance: 1.6658, 1.6693, 1.6736, 1.6760

GOLD

Spot Gold was another top winner of Tuesday's strong safe haven buying, triggered by rising geopolitical uncertainty that triggered traders' migration from dollar into traditional safe haven asset Gold. The yellow metal was up 1.6% on Tuesday, running from $1253 low to the American session high at $1275, the highest since Nov 9. Tuesday's strong rally has eventually taken out strong barriers at 1257 (200SMA) which resisted several attacks during past two weeks and former top of 27 Feb at $1263, also probing above Monday's spike high at $1270. Fresh bulls also closed above important $1255 barrier (Fibo 61.8% of larger $1337/$1122 descend, generating another bullish signal.

Rising tensions over North Korea and Middle East, along with upcoming French elections, keep investors nervous and these are supportive factors for further rise in gold's price. Firm close above $1260 zone will be seen as strong bullish signal for gold.

Support: 1263, 1257, 1255, 1250

Resistance, 1275, 1279, 1283, 1291

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI oil posted marginally higher five-week high at $53.41 on Tuesday, after correcting lower to $52.68, following strong ascend in past three days. Doji candle that was formed on Tuesday could be seen as initial signal of rally's stall on strongly overbought daily slow stochastic and from the fundamental side, rising US shale oil production that for now offsets strong support to the oil prices on rising geopolitical tensions.

Oil price, however, remains well supported in the near-term and could rally strongly on escalation of current political crisis, but consolidation and possible corrective easing are in near-term agenda.

No firmer signals from technical studies, will keep oil price in bullish mode for now.

Solid supports on converged 55/10SMA's at $51.56/65 are expected to contain potential dips and keep strong bullish structure intact.

Support: 53.00, 52.68, 52.29, 51.97

Resistance: 53.41, 53.78, 54.50, 55.00

DJIA

Dow Jones remains motionless for the third consecutive day and left another Doji candle that signals strong indecision. US stocks moved lower on Tuesday, on rising concerns about Syria and North Korea, but losses were limited, as investors preferred to play safe amid rising geopolitical tensions. Dow Jones moved within 20447/20623 range on Tuesday, but mainly stayed between converging 20/55 SMA's that mark initial pivots at 20657/20547 respectively and sustained break of either would generate fresh near-term signal. In addition, studies on daily chart are in neutral mode and show no clear direction signal for now.

Support: 20547,20500, 20447, 20400

Resistance: 20623, 20657, 20692, 20750

FTSE 100

FTSE index ended Tuesday's trading positively, gaining 0.58% for the day and signalling resumption of recovery leg from 7195, after full retracing 7315/7195 downleg. Daily studies are gaining bullish momentum and signalling further upside, as index closed above daily Kijun-sen pivot at 7311 and fresh bullish extension cracked next barrier at 7343 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 7444/7179 pullback. Rising daily Tenkan-sen that contained Tuesday's action offers strong support at 7268, as rising daily Ichimoku cloud continues to underpin recovery.

Extension and close above 7343 pivot is expected to generate another strong bullish signal.

Support: 7311, 7280, 7268, 7241

Resistance: 7343, 7381, 7400, 7444

DAX

DAX extended weak tone on Tuesday and spiked lower to hit fresh nearly two-week low at 12069, on surge through key support at 12141 (Apr 06 low / daily Kijun-sen line). However, losses proved to be short-lived, as index swiftly recovered fall on return back to 12200 zone, where Tuesday's trading ended. The action left long-tailed Doji candle that signalled strong indecision but also signals support for potential further recovery after strong downside rejection. Firm break above daily Tenkan-sen that capped Tuesday's action at 12440 would generate initial bullish signal, trigger stronger recovery, with regain of Monday's high at 12296 to trigger further recovery. On the downside, daily Kijun-sen line should contain extended downticks.

Support: 12200, 12167, 12141, 12069

Resistance: 12240, 12296, 12307, 12346