Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.74; (P) 139.57; (R1) 140.24; More...

GBP/JPY is still staying in tight range above 138.53 support and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 148.42 are forming a consolidation pattern. And there is no clear sign of completion yet. On the downside, break of 138.53 support would trigger bring deeper fall to 136.44 support and possibly below. We'd expect strong support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 142.79 resistance will turn bias to the upside and send GBP/JPY through 144.77 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

USD/CHF - 0.9940

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9938

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9956

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9983

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9973

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0000, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 1.0035

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0000, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 1.0035

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s selloff after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.0003 adds credence to our view that recent decline from 1.0171 is still in progress and may extend weakness to 0.9915-20 (50% projection of 1.0109-0.9942 measuring from 1.0003), then 0.9900 (61.8% projection), however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9870-75 and reckon 0.9850 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0000-05 should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.0090-95 first.

GBP/USD - 1.2475

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2477

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2418

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2380

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2374

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2400, Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2365

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2400, Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2365

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has continued trading with a firm undertone after yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 1.2436, adding credence to our bullish view that the rise from 1.2109 has resumed and bullishness remains for further gain to 1.2500 (approx. 50% projection of 1.2109-1.2436 measuring from 1.2335), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2540-50 and price should falter below previous chart resistance at 1.2570, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this move from here and we are looking to buy cable on pullback as 1.2400-10 should limit downside. Below 1.2380-85 would defer and risk correction to 1.2350 but support at 1.2335 should remain intact. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8631; (P) 0.8679; (R1) 0.8708; More...

EUR/GBP's correction from 0.8786 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, we'd expect support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8639 to contain downside. Break of 0.8786 will target 0.8851 resistance and above. Price actions from 0.8303 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.8693 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement 0.8549 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3929; (P) 1.3999; (R1) 1.4123; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3874 minor support intact, we're still favoring the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. On the upside, above 1.4183 will turn bias to the upside for 1.4289 resistance next. Break will affirm our view and target next key resistance level at 1.4721. However, break of 1.3874 minor support will invalidate our view and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0718; (P) 1.0740; (R1) 1.0764; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0823 resistance will re-affirm the case of trend reversal. And intraday bias will be turned back tot he upside for 1.0897 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

EUR/USD - 1.0799

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0803

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0786

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0751

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0746

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0725, Target: 1.0840, Stop: 1.0690

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0725, Target: 1.0840, Stop: 1.0690

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has maintained a firm bias after surging again yesterday, suggesting recent erratic upmove from 1.0493 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to previous chart resistance at 1.0829, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0850-60 and price should falter well below 1.0890-00, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 1.0706 support should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 1.0675-80 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk weakness to 1.0640 (previous resistance now support) but still reckon indicated support at 1.0600 would remain intact.

USD/JPY - 111.68

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 111.62

Kijun-Sen level                  : 112.15

Ichimoku cloud top             : 112.88

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 112.54

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback has remained under pressure after yesterday’s selloff and near term downside risk remains for recent decline from 115.51 to extend further weakness to 111.40 (50% projection of 115.20-112.26 measuring from 112.87), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 111.00-05 (61.8% projection) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 112.15) would bring test of previous support at 112.26 but break there is needed to signal low is formed, then a stronger rebound to 112.65-70 would follow, however, only break of resistance at 112.87-90 would provide confirmation.

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.0819. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0830 – 1.0873 area which is a good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen around 1.0760. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0700 region. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.0873 would expose 1.0950 – 1.1000 area and activate my bullish mode.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.2494. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.2570 region as a part of the bullish scenario after bounced from the triple bottom formation at 1.2135/08 as you can see on my daily chart below. Immediate support is seen around 1.2440. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2390 region but as long as stay above 1.2300 I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and any downside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to buy. Overall I remain neutral.

USDJPY

The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 111.51 and hit 111.42 earlier today in Asia session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but note that 111.50/30 region is a key support and good place to buy with a tight stop loss. Buying around that area gives us a better price and risk/reward ratio. Immediate resistance is seen around 112.30/50. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 113.00 area or higher. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 111.30 would reactivate my bearish mode as a part of the double top bearish scenario (118.60) as you can see on my H4 chart below.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.9921. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9870 as a part of the bearish scenario after broke below the bullish channel as you can see on my H4 chart below. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0000. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0050 area. Overall I remain neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.21; (P) 112.03; (R1) 112.54; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 118.65 resumed by taking out 111.58 and reaches as low as 111.42 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for the moment. At this point, we're still favor to see strong support from 111.12/13 cluster support to contain downside. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. On the upside, break of 112.86 will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance first. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.