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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.6% against the USD and closed at 0.7680.

On the data front, China's leading economic index rose 1.2% in February. In the prior month, the index had advanced 1.1%.

LME Copper prices declined 2.1% or $125.5/MT to $5765.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $10.0/MT to $1918.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7660, with the AUD trading 0.26% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Australia's Westpac leading index dropped 0.07% on a monthly basis in February. In the prior month, the Westpac leading index had advanced 0.03%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7622, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7583. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7724, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7787.

With no economic releases in Australia today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at 1.0811, after a strong debate performance from French centrist Presidential candidate, Emmanuel Macron, thus cementing his position as the front-runner in the election race.

In the US, the Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President, Loretta Mester, expects the US central bank to hike interest rates more than three times this year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0792, with the EUR trading 0.18% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0756, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0719. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0824, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0855.

Going ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone's current account data for January, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, traders would eye the US existing home sales for February and the house price index for January, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.96% against the USD and closed at 1.2477, after data showed that British annual inflation advanced at the fastest pace in more than three years in February, breaching the Bank of England's 2.0% target.

UK's consumer price index (CPI) jumped 2.3% YoY in February, accelerating to its highest level since September 2013 amid a sharp drop in the pound and rising food and fuel prices, thus piling pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner than estimated. The CPI had registered an advance of 1.8% in the prior month, while markets anticipated for it to rise 2.1%. On the other hand, the nation's public sector net borrowing posted a less-than-expected deficit of £1.1 billion in February, as compared to a revised surplus of £11.7 billion in the previous month, whereas investors had envisaged for a deficit of £2.8 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2474, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2377, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2279. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2591.

In absence of any economic releases in the UK today, investors will focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.92% against the JPY and closed at 111.49.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 111.65, with the USD trading 0.14% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) January monetary policy meeting showed that board members rejected suggestions that the central bank should raise its 10-year government bond yield target in the future to match expected gains in treasury yields. Members held the view that Japan's inflation and growth will accelerate in the foreseeable future, but it remains a difficult task due to concerns about greater uncertainty in global financial markets.

In economic news, Japan's adjusted merchandise trade surplus widened to a level of ¥680.3 billion in February, hitting its highest level since April 2010, compared to a revised trade surplus of ¥204.0 billion in the prior month. Markets were expecting the nation's trade surplus to expand to a level of ¥550.8 billion.

Additionally, the nation's exports grew the most in more than two years, after it climbed 11.3% YoY in February, surpassing market expectations for an advance of 10.1%, as demand from China and other regions of Asia jumped. Exports had advanced 1.3% in the prior month. Meanwhile, the nation's imports recorded a less-than-expected rise of 1.2% on an annual basis in February, against market consensus for a gain of 1.3% and after recording a rise of 8.5% in the previous month.

Early morning data showed that the nation's all industry activity index unexpectedly increased 0.1% in January, defying market expectations for a flat reading. In the prior month, the index had recorded a revised drop of 0.2%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.09, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.52. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.54, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.42.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.57% against the CHF and closed at 0.9931.

Macroeconomic data indicated that Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to CHF3.11 billion in February, following a revised surplus of CHF4.83 billion in the prior month.

Separately, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) in its latest forecast, lowered Switzerland's economic growth outlook to 1.6% in 2017, down from the forecast of 1.8% it projected in December, while leaving the growth forecast for 2018 unchanged at 1.9%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9943, with the USD trading 0.12% higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9912, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9881. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9982, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0021.

Going ahead, traders would focus on Swiss National Bank's quarterly bulletin report, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.1% against the CAD and closed at 1.3352.

On the economic front, retail sales in Canada rebounded more-than-anticipated by 2.2% in January, accelerating at its strongest pace in nearly seven years, suggesting that the economy is gaining momentum. Meanwhile markets expected for an advance of 1.5%, following a revised drop of 0.4% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3375, with the USD trading 0.17% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3296, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3217. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.342, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3465.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The US Dollar is struggling to show any signs of strength as the EUR/USD keeps pushing higher and higher in a bullish trend channel (red/blue lines). A push above the horizontal resistance (orange) invalidates the wave 2 (purple), which seems likely at the moment when considering deep bullish retracement.

The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) of the contracting. A break above the resistance could see price move higher within a wave 5 (purple) towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 vs 1+3.

Currency pair GBP/USD

After bouncing at the wave X (blue), the GBP/USD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.25 of a wave E (green) triangle formation. A bullish breakout could see the GBP/USD continue towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

The GBP/USD completed the ABC zigzag (orange) within wave X (blue). A retracement could see price challenge and potentially bounce at the Fibonacci levels wave B vs A.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke below the bottom (dotted blue) which has changed the wave structure compared to yesterday. The wave 1-2 has been replaced by an ABC (brown) zigzag within wave X (blue). The bearish correction could see a fall from the 383.2% Fibonacci level towards the 50% Fib.

The USD/JPY could be building a 5 wave (purple/orange) within a larger wave A (brown).

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.90 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.75 %, Hang Seng declined 1.30 %, ASX 200 lost 1.55 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1245 (-0.10 %), Silver at $17.54 (-0.25 %), WTI Oil at $48.10 (-0.30 %), Brent Oil at $50.80 (-0.35 %)
• Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.42, UK 10 year yield at 1.26, German 10 year yield at 0.46

News & Data:

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) Feb: -0.07% (prior 0.03%)
• Japan Trade Balance (Feb): 813bln (Est 822bln) (Prior -1,087bln)
• Japan Exports (YoY): 11.3 % (Est 10.6 %) (Prior 1.3 %)
• Japan Imports (YoY): 1.2 % (Est 0.6 %) (Prior 8.5 %)
• Japan All Industry Activity (MoM) Jan: 0.1% (Est 0.00%) (Prior -0.2% rev)
• PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8889 (Prev 6.9071)

Markets Update:

Most of the Asian stock indices declined overnight. Sentiment turned negative in yesterday's US trading session, as investors are starting to doubt that US President Donald Trump will be able to pass his planned tax reform. The S&P 500 finished the trading day with a loss greater than 1 percent. Overnight, the Nikkei lost almost 2 percent on the day, while the Australian ASX 200 fell around 1.50 percent.

The Dollar remains under pressure as well. EUR/USD broke above 1.08 yesterday, and while it failed to clear resistance at 1.0825, a breakout seems imminent. Meanwhile, GBP/USD broke above trendline resistance and is approaching 1.25.

Only the commodity currencies failed to benefit from the Dollar weakness. The Australian and New Zealand Dollar fell as the decrease in risk appetite weighed on the currencies. AUD/USD declined from 0.7750 to 0.7650, while NZD/USD dropped from 0.7090 to 0.7015.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
• 13:00 GMT – US House Price Index
• 14:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales
• 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
• 20:00 GMT – RBNZ Rate Decision
• 20:00 GMT – RBNZ Rate Statement

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

Beginning with a peek at the weekly chart this morning, it's clear to see that weekly price recently bumped heads with a weekly resistance line that stretches as far back as mid-2015. From this angle, we see very little standing in the way of price selling off from here. The closest higher-timeframe support structure can actually be seen down on the daily chart at 1.0714-1.0683: a daily support area.

Looking over to the H4 candles we can see that price launched itself north yesterday, breaching and eventually closing above the H4 supply at 1.0797-1.0780 (now an acting support area), the 1.08 handle and February's opening base line at 1.0801. With H4 price now capped between the above said H4 barriers and a nearby H4 supply zone pegged at 1.0828-1.0814, where does one go from here?

Our suggestions: In view of the unit's close proximity to the aforementioned weekly resistance level, a break to the downside is more likely, in our opinion. With that being the case, our team has noted that should H4 price close beyond the current H4 support area today, we will begin hunting for shorts on any retest seen at this area, targeting the H4 demand drawn from 1.0705-1.0723.

Data points to consider: There's little scheduled news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf 1.0797-1.0780 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (stop loss: dependent on the rejection candle, as ideally we'd look to place it beyond the rejection candle's wick).

GBP/USD

The GBP made considerable ground against its US counterpart on Tuesday, following upbeat UK inflation figures. The move broke through both a H4 trendline resistance extended from the high 1.2706 and a daily resistance logged in at 1.2430 (now acting support).

Thanks to this recent advance, there's a rather attractive H4 sell zone seen just ahead (painted in green) at 1.2523/1.25. Supporting a bounce from this area is as follows:

• The 1.25 handle.
• A H4 trendline resistance taken from the low 1.2346.
• An 88.6% H4 retracement seen at 1.2518.
• A daily Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 1.2523.
• All of the above structures are located within weekly supply positioned at 1.2569-1.2404.

Our suggestions: Dependent on the time of day, a short from this area could be something to consider. Aggressive stops are seen at 1.2525, while conservative stops can be placed above the weekly supply at 1.2571. Ultimately, we'd look to ride this train down to at least the daily support hurdle mentioned above at 1.2430.

Data points to consider: There's little scheduled news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.2523/1.25 (stop loss: 1.2571 [conservative]).

AUD/USD

Having failed to sustain gains beyond the H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7732 yesterday, the pair entered into something of a free-fall. The 0.77 handle was wiped off the chart, with price now looking set to challenge the 16th March lows at 0.7663, followed closely by the H4 mid-way support hurdle at 0.7650 and March's opening base line at 0.7642. Whilst this selloff is indeed backed by a weekly trendline resistance taken from the high 0.7835, it may be worth noting that the daily candles are currently trading within a daily support area marked at 0.7699-0.7656.

Our suggestions: Although downside momentum appears incredibly strong right now, selling into a daily support area is just too risky for our liking. Before our team can consider shorts, a H4 close is required beyond March's opening level at 0.7642. Not only will this likely clear our bids from within the current daily support area, it seems to also open up some space on the H4 chart down to the 0.76 handle. A H4 close below 0.7642, followed up with a strong retest would, in our view, be ideal grounds to sell this market!

Data points to consider: RBA Assistant Gov. Debelle speaks at 1.40am GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf 0.7642 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (stop loss: dependent on the rejection candle, as ideally we'd look to place it beyond the rejection candle's wick).

USD/JPY

With US equity prices falling sharply yesterday, this, as you can see, revived demand for the safe-have yen! H4 price staged a rather aggressive selloff from the underside of February's opening line at 112.77, consequently breaching the 112 handle and slam dunking itself into the H4 mid-way support barrier at 111.50 at the close. Whilst 111.50 is a support in and of itself, we would not consider it stable enough to justify a long. But, knowing that this number is placed within the walls of a daily support area at 111.35-112.37 along with weekly price skimming the top edge of a weekly support area at 111.44-110.10, the 111.50 level becomes a worthy contender as far as supports go.

Our suggestions: Should 115.50 produce a reasonably sized H4 bullish rotation candle today, a buy from here is high probability. Should the above come to fruition, we'd be looking for price to engulf 112 and head back up to retest February's opening level. This, in our estimation, is a solid take-profit target.

Data points to consider: There's little scheduled news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 115.50 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the confirming candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD staged an impressive comeback going into the US session yesterday on the back of declining oil prices. As we write, the pair is seen trading within touching distance of 1.3364 (the top edge of the current H4 range). A violation of this boundary could send the unit up to the 1.34 handle, or quite possibly the 1.3434/1.3419 area (November, December and January's opening levels).

Right now, there is very little higher-timeframe structure in play so it's difficult to judge direction. However, in the event that a break to the upside is seen, our team would be very interested in the 1.3434/1.3419 zone. The reason for this is simple. Psychological handles are prone to fakeouts, and with this H4 area lurking just above 1.34, we feel it'd be a fantastic barrier to help facilitate a fakeout.

Our suggestions: Look to short 1.3434/1.3419. For those concerned that a fakeout through this area may also take place, we would strongly recommend waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form (see the top of this report).

Data points to consider: Crude oil inventories at 2.30pm, Canadian Gov. Council member Schembri speaks at 7.45pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.3434/1.3419 ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

USD/CHF

In view of weekly action now touching gloves with a weekly ascending trendline extended from the low 0.9443, shorting this market (medium term) may be a problem! Down on the daily chart, price closed below daily support at 0.9950 (now acting resistance), but failed to close below the daily demand in which it's housed in at 0.9929-0.9975. Looking over to the H4 candles, we can see that the Swissy punched beyond the H4 demand at 0.9929-0.9963 and missed the next H4 demand seen just below it at 0.9903-0.9921 by a cat's whisker.

Our suggestions: Given the above points, and taking into account that H4 price is capped between the H4 demand base at 0.9903-0.9921 and a H4 broken Quasimodo line at 0.9951, this market is a difficult piece to read at the moment.

In order to go long, we would prefer to see a daily close back above the daily resistance at 0.9950. As for shorts, we would not even attempt to go down this trail given the weekly trendline currently in play! Therefore, we feel it is best to remain on the sidelines today.

Data points to consider: There's little scheduled news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

DOW 30

US stocks fell sharply going into the early hours of US trading yesterday. The index dropped 250 points on the day (open/close) and took out multiple tech supports along the way! As you can see, the H4 candles ended the session shaking hands with the H4 demand at 20620-20654, which happens to be positioned around the top edge of a daily demand base coming in at 20527-20626.

With the bulls yet to make an appearance, and the weekly chart indicating that this market has the potential to selloff all the way back down to the weekly demand area pegged at 19675-19964, we have no intention of buying this market just yet!

Our suggestions: To prove buyer intent within the current H4 demand, we would need to see a reasonably sized H4 bullish rotation candle form from here. This would, in our opinion, be enough evidence to justify a buy trade, targeting the underside of the daily resistance area at 20714, followed closely by the H4 resistance area at 20769-20801.

Data points to consider: There's little scheduled news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 20620-20654 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the confirming candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

Across the board we saw the US dollar take a hit. This, as you can see, lifted the price of gold higher, breaking through a H4 resistance area at 1235.7-1238.1 (now a support zone) and tagging March's opening level at 1245.9 by the day's end.

While 1245.9 is holding ground, there has not been much bearish intent registered from here as of yet. However, considering that weekly resistance at 1241.2 and the daily Quasimodo resistance at 1244.3 are both in play right now, we do expect to see a H4 bearish rotation candle present itself from 1245.9 today.

Our suggestions: Should this be the case, we would look to sell the close of the H4 bearish candle and target the H4 support area mentioned above at 1235.7-1238.1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1245.9 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the confirming candle).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.30; (P) 121.06; (R1) 121.52; More...

EUR/JPY's fall from 122.88 resumed by breaking 120.65 and reaches as low as 120.43 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 120.01 support. Overall, price actions from 124.08 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Strong support is expected from 118.45 (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 121.83 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 122.88 and then 124.08.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.