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Market movers today

The key market focus today is on the US military strike in Syria and the US non-farm payroll report from March due to be released in the US.

The US labour market has been in good shape over the past two months and we expect this trend to cont inue. We estimate a total of 160,000 new jobs were created in March but highlight that risks are skewed to the upside as the ADP labour report from Wednesday suggested weather condit ions had less of a negat ive effect on job growth than we have pencilled in. We est imate the average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m, which would mean an increase of 2.7% y/y. We furthermore est imate the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% aft er last mont h's decrease.

In the UK, the NIESR GDP est imate for March is due – the indicator is usually a good predictor of actual GDP growth.

German industrial production is due to be released on Friday. Following the weak factory orders in January, we estimate indust rial product ion for February will show a drop of 2.5%.

In the Scandis, focus will be on indust rial product ion in Norway and Denmark.

Selected market news

The US has launched a military strike in Syria after accusing Assad's regime of the gas at tack earlier this week that killed many civilians. Donald Trump confirmed the at tacks from his Florida Club – current ly the locat ion of the Chinese President Jinping's visit – stat ing that it is in t he ‘vital national security interest of the United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons'. The attack targeted the air base from which the gas at tack presumably originated. Prior to the at tack, Russian officials stated that at tacks would have ‘negat ive consequences'.

Safe havens such as US Treasuries, JPY and CHF have rallied on the first military act ion of the young Trump presidency. Also, gold and oil are moving higher this morning on the back of the rise in geopolit ical risk, as the at tacks suggest a different approach from the Trump administ rat ion than that under Obama.

Yesterday, the Czech National Bank (CNB) abandoned the EUR/CZK floor in an ext raordinary monetary policy meet ing, as the condit ions for a sustainable fulfilment of the inflation target were met and there is no need to keep monetary condit ions as relaxed as before anymore, according to the CNB . The exchange rate is now free to move according to supply and demand in the market (‘managed float '). The CNB also confirmed it stands ready to mit igate any excessive exchange rate fluctuations, without ment ioning any specific levels. Governor Jiří Rusnok indicated at the later press conference that t he CNB's tolerance for volatility will be quite large.

US launches missile strike on Syrian airbase deemed responsible for chemical attack

US Session Highlights

(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 234K V 250KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.03M V 2.03ME

(US) House Intel Chief Nunes: to temporarily step down from committee's Russia investigation; says charges filed against him with Office of Congressional Ethics are entirely false and politically motivated

(US) House Freedom Chair Caucus Meadows (R-NC): majority of Freedom Caucus members will vote for healthcare bill if earlier White House offers are included in the legislation

(US) White House economic adviser Cohn reportedly tells lawmakers Trump administration remains open to a new Glass-Steagall law - press

US markets on close: Dow +0.1%, S&P500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%

Best Sector in S&P500: Energy

Worst Sector in S&P500: Telecom

Biggest gainers: LB +11.0%; STZ +6.4%; KSS +5.6%

Biggest losers: INCY -2.1%; FAST -1.5%; AMZN -1.2%

At the close: VIX 12.4 (-0.5pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.22% (-1bps), 10-yr 2.34% (-1bps), 30-yr 2.99% (-2bps)

US movers afterhours

HYGS: Awarded funding to build two hydrogen fueling stations fo Greater Toronto Area (GTA); +6.3% afterhours

RYI: Guides Q1 higher Rev y/y; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $53-55M v $37M y/y; +5.7% afterhours

OCLR: To join S&P SmallCap 600 index; +4.4% afterhours

WDFC: Reports Q2 $0.87 v $0.90e, R$96.5M v $99.8Me; affirms FY17 $3.64-3.71 v $3.65e, Cuts R$390-395M v $387Me; -4.2% afterhours

NPTN: CFO Ray Wallin to depart; effective May 15th; -2.2% afterhours

RT: Reports Q3 -$0.06 (adj) v +$0.03 y/y, R$225.7M v $271.5M y/y; Names James F. Hyatt as new CEO effective immediately; -9.3% afterhours

Politics

(US) Bipartisan group of senators including Sen Warren (D-MA) and Sen McCain (R-AZ) introduce 21st Century Glass Steagall legislation - press

(US) President Trump to nominate exec Derek Kan as Under Sec of Policy at DOT - press

Key economic data

(JP) JAPAN FEB LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.5%E ; REAL EARNINGS (EX-INFLATION) Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.0% PRIOR

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 51.2 V 53.1 PRIOR; 2nd straight expansion

(PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK (BRCP) LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.25%; AS EXPECTED

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asian equity markets are mixed though risk is decidedly on the defensive as simmering geopolitical jitters are burning hotter. Two days after a chemical weapons attack against a Syria rebel stronghold by the Assad regime, President Trump ordered a missile strike against an air base from which the chemical attack was apparently staged. Nearly 60 Raytheon missiles were launched by two Navy destroyers that also took precaution not to hit any Russian assets that were present near the targeted airfield. Pentagon official said Russian military was informed where and when the Syria strike was coming, though State Sec Tillerson took a more critical tone of Moscow, noting that "Russia was either complicit or incompetent in carrying out its 2013 commitment in Syria". Tillerson added that US did not seek an approval from Moscow despite its explicit support for the Assad regime. Initial Congressional response has thus far been positive even though President Trump did not seek Congressional approval before authorizing the strike.

Markets reacted with sharply accentuated risk-off flows - US Treasuries spiked as the yield on the 10-yr fell to a 4-month low below 2.29%, Gold prices rose nearly $20 above 1,270, June S&P500 e-minis fell nearly 20 handles below 2,338 before consolidating the drop around 2,345, and WTI crude rose $1 above $52 even though Syria is not a major crude supplier with worries over Assad ally Iran taking a position against US action. Initial response from Russian officials has also been predictably cool, with one govt official stating that US-Russia cooperation may be in jeopardy. FX markets were also active in what is typically a less volatile session ahead of the non-farm payrolls - USD/JPY fell nearly 100pips to ¥110, AUD/USD fell 25pips below 0.7520, and USD/CHF fell 40pips to 1.0030.

High-profile initial dinner meeting between US Pres Trump and China Pres Xi in Florida has taken a back seat to the Syria escalation. Trump only stated that the two leaders "had a long discussion already, and so far I have gotten nothing, absolutely nothing, but we have developed a friendship."

In notable corporate news, Samsung Electronics put out its preliminary Q1 results beating expectations at Op profit KRW9.9T v KRW9.2Te, Rev KRW50T v KRW49.5Te, though the stock was down slightly in early going. Toshiba remained volatile, rising after today's local press report that Hon Hai submitted a bid near ¥3T for chip unit.

China

(CN) US Pres Trump: US to have a "very, very great relationship" with China in long term - financial press

(CN) Morgan Stanley: China growth and inflation will probably start to roll over in coming quarters due to high base and shift in policy; Expect only gradual moderation rather than sharp slowdown - Chinese press

(CN) China and South Korea to discuss North Korea nuclear issues - financial press

Japan

(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: US-Japan dialogue agenda not limited to trade and FX

Australia/New Zealand

(AU) Australia govt reportedly has finished a scoping study for a potential free trade agreement with the EU

Korea

(KR) Japan said to extend its unilateral sanctions on North Korea by 2 years - press

Samsung Electronics: Reports prelim Q1 Op profit KRW9.9T v KRW9.2Te, Rev KRW50T v KRW49.5Te

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:00ET)

Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, ASX200 -0.1%, Kospi -0.4%

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.3%; Nasdaq -0.3%, Dax -0.4%, FTSE100 -0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:00ET)

EUR 1.0635-1.0660; JPY 110.10-111.00; AUD 0.7515-0.7545; NZD 0.6960-0.6975

June Gold +1.0% at 1,265/oz; May Crude Oil +1.9% at $52.65/brl; May Copper +0.2% at $2.66/lb

iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,208 tonnes from 10,237 tonnes prior; 6th straight decline, lowest since Mar 2016

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8949 V 6.8930 PRIOR

(CN) PBoC skips open market operations for 10th straight session; Drains net CNY100B this week v drained CNY290B prior

(AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2.0% 2021 Bonds; avg yield: 2.0635%; bid-to-cover: 6.12x

(US) US based stock funds see $11.9B outflow (largest outflow since Dec) in week ended Apr 5th v $1.8B inflow in prior week - Lipper

Asia equities notable movers

Australia

HLO.AU Helloworld +6.1% (raises guidance)

AGL.AU AGL Energy +2.7% (UBS upgrades)

ALL.AU Aristocrat +1.1% (Ord Minnett raises PT)

S32.AU South32 -2.7% (Morgans Financial downgrades)

JBH.AU JB Hi-Fi -1.4% (Deutsche Bank comment)

MET.NZ Metlifecare -4.0% (Infratil sells stake)

EHE.AU Estia Health -5.2% (update on Sentinel portfolio management)

Japan

8354.JP Fukuoka Financial +2.4% (Credit Suisse upgrades)

6502.JP Toshiba Corporation +2.0% (Hon Hai offer)

8174.JPNippon Gas Co +5.2% (JPMorgan initiates)

7735.JPScreen Holdings Co -3.0% (Macquarie downgrades)

2659.JPSan-A Co -3.7% (annual result)

3382.JPSeven & I Holdings +4.4% (annual result)

7013.JPIHI Corp +4.0% (Jefferies initiates)

2337.JPIchigo Group Holdings +3.5% (March result)

South Korea

005930.KR Samsung Electronics -0.7% (prelim Q1 result)

139480.KR E-Mart +4.4% (monthly sales)

Hong Kong

1317.HK China Maple Leaf Educational Systems +1.7% (H1 guidance)

960.HK Longfor Properties +1.2% (Mar result)

1030.HK Future Land Development Holdings +2.6% (Mar result)

1910.HK Samsonite +0.9% (acquisition)

1157.HK Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology +2.2% (Q1 guidance)

China

600489.CN Zhongjin Gold Co +5.7%, 601899.CN Zijin Mining +3.8%

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.41% against the USD and closed at 0.7540.

LME Copper prices rose 1.1% or $62.0/MT to $5870.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.3% or $6.0/MT to $1956.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7521, with the AUD trading 0.25% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's AIG performance of construction index dropped to a level of 51.2 in March, compared to a level of 53.1 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7500, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7480. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7554, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7588.

Going ahead, investors will look forward to Australia's unemployment rate, consumer inflation expectations, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence, all scheduled to release next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.23% against the USD and closed at 1.0643, after the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief, Mario Draghi, stated that it was too soon to wind down the central bank's stimulus program, even though the Euro-zone economy is strengthening and added that there was scant evidence that inflation was approaching the central bank's target.

Separately, minutes from the ECB's March meeting showed that committee members broadly agreed that a substantial degree of stimulus is still needed.

On the data front, Germany's seasonally adjusted factory orders rebounded 3.4% on a monthly basis in February, driven by strong domestic demand, compared to a revised fall of 6.8% in the previous month, while market participants expected a gain of 4.0%. Moreover, activity in the nation's construction sector accelerated at the fastest pace in over a year, with the PMI advancing to a level of 56.4 in March, following a reading of 54.1 in the prior month.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of currencies, lifted by the release of upbeat US jobless claims data.

The US initial jobless claims fell more-than-expected to a level of 234.0K in the week ended 01 April 2017, hitting its lowest level in nearly two-years and pointing to a further tightening in the nation's labour market. Initial jobless claims had recorded a revised reading of 259.0K in the prior week, compared to market expectations of a fall to a level of 250.0K.

Meanwhile, investors remained nervous amid caution over an impending summit between US President, Donald Trump and Chinese President, Xi Jinping.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0644, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0621, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0597. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0674, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0703.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the release of Germany's industrial production and trade balance figures, both for February, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, both for March, scheduled to release later in the day, will garner a significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.2465.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2465, with the GBP trading flat against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2441, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2416. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2497, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2528.

Ahead in the day, all eyes will be on UK’s trade balance, manufacturing as well as industrial production data, all for February and the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to March. Also, a speech by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, will attract investor attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.31% against the JPY and closed at 110.84.

In economic news, Japan's consumer confidence index jumped to a level of 43.9 in March, surging to its highest level in more than three years. Markets expected the index to advance to a level of 43.4, after recording a revised reading of 43.2 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.38, with the USD trading 0.42% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.95, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.52. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.97, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.56.

Next week, Japan's trade balance, Eco-watchers survey, flash machine tool orders and final industrial production data, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the CHF and closed at 1.0052.

Macroeconomic data revealed that Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% MoM in March, meeting market expectations. The CPI had climbed 0.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the CPI surprisingly remained steady at 0.6% in March.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0046, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0024, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0003. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0067, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0089.

Going ahead, market participants focus on Switzerland’s unemployment rate for March, due to release in a few hours, to gauge strength in the nation’s labour market.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.1% against the CAD and closed at 1.3416.

On the economic front, Canada's building permits unexpectedly dropped 2.5% on a monthly basis in February, confounding market expectations for a rise of 1.3%. In the previous month, building permits had recorded a revised rise of 5.8%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3400, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3379, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3359. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3435, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3471.

Going ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Canada's unemployment rate for March, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

Since the beginning of the week, the single currency has been sandwiched between a daily demand base at 1.0599-1.0650 and a daily resistance area drawn from 1.0714-1.0683. Up on the weekly chart, nevertheless, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside, with little support seen in the picture until we connect with the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515/support area at 1.0333-1.0502.Jumping across to the H4 candles, price is seen trading beneath April’s opening barrier at 1.0659, and appears to be on course to shake hands with demand at 1.0607-1.0632 (located within the above said daily demand).

Today’s economic data brings out the main event of the week: the US non-farm payrolls employment report. Therefore, we may see price snap out of its consolidative phase. Beyond the current H4 demand, we have March’s opening level at 1.0569 in view. Above April’s opening line there’s the 1.07 handle, shadowed closely by a H4 resistance area penciled in at 1.0705-1.0723 to watch for.

Our suggestions: Right now, we see very little opportunity to trade, unless, of course, one fancies the idea of trading from the current H4 demand that’s bolstered by the daily demand at 1.0599-1.0650 (but this would place one against weekly flow – see above). Ultimately, we’re going to sit tight and see how price responds to the NFP report. Hopefully, it should shake things up a bit and create some trading opportunities!

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD:  

Of late, the GBP/USD has been seen ranging between the H4 mid-way support at 1.2450 and the psychological band 1.25. Of particular interest on the H4 chart, however, is the potential AB=CD bearish pattern that terminates around the upper edge of supply coming in at 1.2596-1.2568. Still, before this can come to fruition, April’s opening line at 1.2541 and the mid-level resistance at 1.2550 needs to be consumed.

Looking over to the bigger picture, weekly action is seen meandering between a Quasimodo resistance at 1.2673 and the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.2390. In addition to this, we can also see daily price loitering mid-range between resistance plotted at 1.2582 (lodged within the aforementioned H4 supply) and demand at 1.2334-1.2379.

Our suggestions: With the US non-farm payrolls employment report just around the corner, we are hesitant to take on any positions right now. Ideally, we’re looking for the NFP to push prices north to help complete the above noted H4 AB=CD structure.

Data points to consider: UK manufacturing at 9.30am, BoE Gov. Carney speaks at 10am. US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

AUD/USD 

Kicking this morning’s report off with a look at the weekly timeframe, price is currently seen trading within striking distance of a support area fixed at 0.7524-0.7446. The pair is likely to find support here with it having been a considerable structure since mid-2016. Down on the daily timeframe, the bulls attempted to recover from demand at 0.7540-0.7570 on Wednesday, but, as you can see, failed to generate any type of follow through. The next zone of interest beyond here is 0.7449-0.7506: a support area that holds an AB=CD (see black arrows) 161.8% Fib ext. at 0.7488.

Across on the H4 timeframe, we can see that price has recently run through bids at 0.7550. According to the H4 structure, there’s very little stopping price from connecting with the 0.75 handle today. However, do note that the top edge of the weekly support area is seen at 0.7524, so the H4 candles may struggle to reach 0.75.

Our suggestions: With the daily candles still seen trading within demand at 0.7540-0.7570, and weekly price not far from connecting with a hefty piece of structure, we feel shorts beyond 0.7550 is a little too risky for our liking. As such, we will hold fire today and re-evaluate the situation post NFP.

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/JPY:  

In view of weekly price holding firm within the walls of a support area at 111.44-110.10, entering into any long-term shorts may be risky. Daily price continues to range between a resistance area at 111.35-112.37 and a broken Quasimodo line at 110.58. Therefore, until the resistance area is taken out, we would also be wary of committing to any long-term buys at the moment.

Jumping across to the H4 chart, the candles are seen rejecting the 111 handle. A break beyond this number would likely place the underside of the daily resistance area at 111.35 in view, alongside April’s opening level at 111.41 and the mid-level resistance at 111.50.

Our suggestions: A short from the 111.50 region looks like a reasonable possibility, given its surrounding confluence. However, let’s bear in mind that by selling here, you would be going against weekly flow! As such, waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to form beforehand (see the top of this report) may be the safer route to take.

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 111.50 region: ([waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to form is advised] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms the area).

USD/CAD

While the H4 candles are seen finding support off the 1.34 handle at the moment, one must take into account that not only is weekly action teasing the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434, but daily price is also seen testing the underside of a daily supply coming in at 1.3494-1.3439. To that end, we would not be keen to join in on any buying from 1.34 right now. With the above notes in mind, we have our eye on the H4 trendline resistance extended from the high 1.3495 for possible shorting opportunities.

Our suggestions: To avoid any fakeout seen at the aforementioned H4 trendline, however, a reasonably sized H4 bearish rotation candle is required before our team would consider shorting. The first take-profit target can be seen at 1.34, followed closely by a H4 demand drawn in at 1.3373-1.3391.

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm. Canadian employment data also scheduled for release at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: H4 trendline resistance extended from the high 1.3495 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish rotation candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).

USD/CHF

As can be seen from the H4 chart this morning, March’s opening level at 1.0066 capped upside during Wednesday/Thursday’s sessions. This level – coupled with the nearby H4 supply at 1.0098-1.0080, will be a difficult area to break, in our opinion. Even more so, considering that there’s a daily supply zone also seen currently in play at 1.0107-1.0072.

Our suggestions: An ideal scenario would be for H4 price to fake beyond March’s opening level and touch gloves with the aforementioned H4 supply. Should this occur and the H4 candles form a nice-looking selling wick, we would consider shorts. With that being said though, today’s economic data brings out the main event of the week: the US non-farm payrolls employment report, potentially creating unpredictable moves. As a result, our desk noted that unless H4 price fakes beyond 1.0066 into the H4 supply during the London morning segment, we will wait on the sidelines until post NFP.

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: A fakeout beyond 1.0066 into H4 supply at 1.0098-1.0080 in the form of a H4 selling wick would be an interesting signal to sell (stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).

DOW 30

Since price topped at a record high of 21170 and pulled back to lows of 20409, the index entered into a phase of consolidation on the daily chart. The resistance area at 20714-20821 and demand coming in at 20527-20626 have, as you can see, both withstood multiple attacks.

While weekly price shows room to extend down to demand at 19675-19964, we would prefer to see the daily demand zone consumed before any shorts are considered. The next downside hurdle on the daily timeframe can be seen at a demand base drawn from 20003-20091 (positioned just above the weekly demand).

Our suggestions: Neither a long nor short seems attractive at this time. Yes, a long from the current H4 demand at 20513-20564 is interesting, given its connection to daily demand, but not when the weekly chart shows so much space visible to the downside! Personally, we’ll wait for the NFP to do its thing and reassess following the release.

Data points to consider: US non-farm payrolls employment report, Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate at 1.30pm. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.15pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD  

In recent hours the US dollar sold off, consequently pushing the price of gold higher. H4 price walloped its way through resistance at 1260.0 (now acting support), and has potentially paved the way for the unit to challenge resistance pegged at 1275.5. Before we all go hunting for longs in this market, however, it might be worth noting that weekly resistance at 1263.7 is currently in play, as is the upper edge of a daily supply at 1265.2.

Our suggestions: Although a long from 1260.0 is tempting, we feel that the higher-timeframe structure will be just too overwhelming here! The H4 161.8% Fib ext. at 1267.9 (taken from the low 1243.6) seems to be holding firm at the moment. Given this factor, and the higher-timeframe resistances in motion, a short from here is high probability. Still, seeing as how there is limited structure to place stops, we will wait for a lower-timeframe confirming sell signal to form here before committing (see the top of this report).

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1267.9 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger [stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.60 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.25 %, Hang Seng fell 0.70 %, ASX 200 declined 0.15 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1264 (+0.85 %), Silver at $18.39 (+0.80 %), WTI Oil at $52.50 (+1.60 %), Brent Oil at $55.65 (+1.40 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.32, UK 10-year yield at 1.10, German 10-year yield at 0.26

News & Data:

• Australian AIG Construction Index Mar: 51.2 (prev 53.1)
• PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8949 (prev fix 6.8930 prev close 6.8980)
• Stocks skid, safe-haven assets jump as U.S. missiles strike Syria – RTRS
• Oil prices jump 2 percent after U.S. launches missile strike in Syria – RTRS

Markets Update:

It was a risk-off session in Asia after the US announced that it launched missile strikes in Syria. While the reaction in FX was muted, Gold jumped above 1263 resistance and Oil prices rallied more than 2 percent. Gold reached a high of almost 1270, but reversed some of the gains later in the session. Support is now seen at 1260 and 1252.

The FX market remained calm. Traders are waiting for the US employment data today, and are not willing to take much risk ahead of it. The market is anticipating a slightly higher NFP number following the solid ADP figure on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the Dollar remains under pressure against the Yen, as the currency is benefiting from the risk aversion.

Upcoming Events:

• 06:45 GMT – Swiss Unemployment Rate
• 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
• 07:00 GMT – German Industrial Production
• 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
• 08:30 GMT – UK Halifax House Price Index
• 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
• 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
• 09:30 GMT – UK Trade Balance
• 10:00 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
• 13:30 GMT – US NFP
• 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
• 13:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change
• 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI
• 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks