Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.24; (P) 143.44; (R1) 144.40; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 142.16 support should confirm short term topping and bring decline to 55 day EMA (now at 140.54) and below. Break of 148.42 will extend the larger rise from 122.36, Still, such rally is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 150.43 long term fibonacci level to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Rise from there is now expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.84; (P) 122.47; (R1) 122.97; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 124.08 continues. Overall, further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 119.98).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as correcting whole down trend from 149.76 to 109.20. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0713; (R1) 1.0733; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0762 will extend the corrective rise from 1.0677. But overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0897 resistance holds. Corrective pattern from 1.1198 is still in progress and another fall is expected. Below 1.0677 will target key support level at 1.0620 next. Though, decisive break of 1.0897 resistance will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to be the sign of completion of the correction. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3171; (P) 1.3242; (R1) 1.3293; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as the fall from 1.3598 would extend lower to 1.3080 support. As noted before, price actions from 1.2460 are viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.3080 will indicate that it's completed and turn outlook bearish for retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3383 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again with focus back on 1.3588/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3588 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3005 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7289; (P) 0.7323; (R1) 0.7373; More...

Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as the rise from 0.7158 would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394, which is close to 55 days EMA. Sustained break there will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. Meanwhile, rejection from there will retain bearishness for 0.7144 support. Break of 0.7144 support will likely extend the larger down trend through 0.6826.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0519; (P) 1.0567 (R1) 1.0654; More.....

EUR/USD recovers further but stays below 1.0652 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.0461 key support indicates that consolidation from there has completed as a triangle at 1.1298. And, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is resuming. Current downtrend is now expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2313; (P) 1.2373; (R1) 1.2475; More...

GBP/USD rebounds further as consolidation from 1.2200 extends. With 1.2509 minor resistance intact, intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish. We'd still expect upside to be limited by 1.2509 resistance and bring fall resumption. Corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774. Below 1.2200 will target a test on 1.1946 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0048; (P) 1.0134; (R1) 1.0182; More.....

USD/CHF is still staying in the consolidation pattern from 1.0342 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, firm break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.56; (P) 115.99; (R1) 116.77; More...

USD/JPY weakened against but stays above 114.76 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.76) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

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US treasury yields tumbled sharply as markets corrected the post election rally. Surge in yields since November was driven by anticipation of Donald Trump's policies of higher spending, lower taxes and higher debt. Markets seemed to turn cautious as Trump prepares to take office later in the month. 10 year yield dropped to 2.368 comparing to December's high at 2.621. 30 year yield also dropped to close below 3.000 handle at 2.962, comparing to December's high at 3.196. The development dragged Dollar broadly lower with the dollar index hitting as low as 101.30. The developments confirmed that yields and Dollar turned into a correction phase which could last for the the rest of the month. It's doubtful whether a strong non-farm payroll report could trigger sustainable comeback in the Dollar in near term. In other markets, gold rode on Dollar weakness and reached as high as 1185.9. DJIA continued to stay in tight range below 20000 handle.

TNX's sharp fall and break of 2.424 support confirmed short term topping at 2.621, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor in near term to 55 day EMA (now at 2.257). But we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.336 to 2.621 at 2.130 to contain downside. Nonetheless, consolidation from 2.621 should extend for a while in near term. And break of 2.621 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay neutral at best. And such development would limit strength in the greenback.

Non-farm payroll report from US is the main focus today. The US economy is expected to add 178k jobs in December. Unemployment rate is expected to rise back to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.3% mom. Looking at other job data, ADP report was a disappointment, showing 153k growth in private sector jobs missing expectation of 175k. Employment component of ISM services also dropped sharply to 53.8, down from 58.2. However, employment component of ISM manufacturing improved to 53.1, up from 52.3. Conference board consumer confidence improved to 113.7, up from 109.4. There are more risks of downside surprises in today's NFP report. US will also release trade balance and factory orders.

Elsewhere, Australia trade balance turned into surplus of AUD 1.24b in November, first surplus since 2014. Japan labor cash earnings rose 0.2% yoy in November. German factory orders, retail sales, Eurozone confidence indicates and retail sales will be featured in European session. Swiss will release foreign currency reserves. Canada will release employment data and trade balance.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.56; (P) 115.99; (R1) 116.77; More...

USD/JPY weakened against but stays above 114.76 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.76) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

Economic Indicators Update

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