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USD/CHF's fall last week suggests that rebound from 0.7774 has completed at 0.7923 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.7774 and then 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7829 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7923 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's late breach of 0.7221 last week suggests the recent up trend is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6730) holds.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3965 continued last week after brief recovery. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3709 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3581) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY's steep decline last week indicates medium term topping at 216.58, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But as a temporary low was formed at 210.43, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 214.70) holds. Below 210.43 will target 209.58 support first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 216.58 at 204.28.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.16) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.80) holds.

EUR/JPY's steep decline last week indicates medium term topping at 187.93, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But a temporary low should be formed at 182.28. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 186.00) holds. Below 182.28 will extend the fall from 187.93 to 180.78 support.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 177.53) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 177.53) holds.

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8740 continued last. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 0.8610 support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications and pave the way to 0.8466 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 0.8652 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Sustained break there will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8682) holds, in case of recovery.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's decline from 1.6842 continued last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.6125 low. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 1.8554. On the upside, above 1.6423 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7098) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6601) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

EUR/CHF stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Rise from 0.8979 is expected to continue as long as 0.9155 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9264 at 0.9155) holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will target 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 61.8% retracement at 0.9088 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9272) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Stock Markets just reached new all-time highs but Investors are awaiting for fundamental confirmation before moving on the the next phase, including April NFP and more news regarding Iran and US talks
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Week in review – Earnings break records, pulling Markets higher

US Stock Markets, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P have continued their relentless paths to fresh all-time highs, but the euphoric momentum is now somewhat stalling.

Investors are anxiously awaiting fundamental confirmation before committing to the next phase of this historic rally.

Nasdaq Daily Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView

All eyes are now turning to the upcoming April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, while the trading floor remains desperate for concrete progress in the stalled US-Iran diplomatic talks.

Without a definitive breakthrough, global assets remain trapped in a geopolitical limbo that is actively preventing major new trends from developing.

This week did deliver some great news for Stock Markets: Tech earnings delivered yet another blockbuster round.

The reporting Magnificent 7 heavyweights—Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Google—all posted record-breaking revenues.

However, the sheer, unprecedented scale of the ongoing AI capital expenditure boom is still frightening investors. With Stock valuations currently stretched to extreme limits, the tech titans will have to continue beating records again and again to make sure that they can maintain their high P/E pricing.

Meanwhile, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains highly complex and weighting on general sentiment. WTI Crude bounced back above the $100 throughout this week, adding renewed inflationary fears for the coming months.

WTI 4H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Yet, after a pivotal week featuring five major central banks (the BoE, BoC, BoJ, Fed, and ECB), aggressive rate hikes remain notably absent from their forward guidance, despite heavy expectations for the worst.

The lack of hawkish talks sparked a strong wave of relief trading: The US Dollar shot aggressively lower following Jerome Powell's final press conference, providing a lucrative tailwind for other FX majors and precious metals.

However, with Energy prices still grinding higher, a reality check could be imminent.

Stock markets remain at center stage, and next week will determine whether equities can continue surfing on record earnings, or if mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical anxieties will ultimately dampen their historic progress.

As said last week, an actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Oil somehow rampaged again this week, but what really stands out is the fact that Global Markets really seem to have turned the page on its inverse correlation with other assets.

You can see for yourself: Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones are up another ~1-2% throughout the week despite the 5% rise in Petrol, and while Gold continued to pullback, Silver managed to remain unchanged.

Overall, this hints at further uncertainty in Markets, and traders are now treating each asset class individually (with many consolidation ranges), as the World awaits for further geopolitical news.

The Week Ahead – Key Labor Market reports

Asia Pacific Markets – Royal Bank of Australia Rate Decision and NZ Employment

A few data points should be adding fuel to the nascent fire that gripped Forex Markets this week; A fire that has started with the Central Bank rate decisions and magnified with the Verbal Intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

Next week, without counting the US Dollar, the Aussie and New Zealand Dollars will be facing key tests with the back-to-back RBA meeting (no hikes priced, but communications will be closely watched) and New Zealand Employment data on Tuesday.

There will be a few mid-tier releases also, including the Bank of Japan minutes (potential mover), PMIs for Australia and Trade data for China.

Europe and UK Markets – PMIs and Inflation reports

The CHF will surely get the most attention next week, with Swiss inflation report (Tuesday) still a major contributor to FX volatility.

While Energy inflation should contribute to less chances of rate cuts for the Swissie, traders will have to remind that any huge strengthening could be met with currency intervention from the Swiss MoF.

The Eurozone will also be releasing their fair share of new data, including the Eurozone PPI and PMIs.

Euro Traders should also keep an eye on Thursday's Retail Sales and key speeches from Madame Lagarde, as they could either confirm or deter the fresher pricing for rate hikes at the upcoming meeting (June 11).

North American Markets – Huge releases and speeches

North America comes back to steal the show, with heavy Central Bank speeches and Employment releases.

Monday starts the show with Fed's Williams delivering an address (Monday 12:50 ET) – and he currently is the most influential speaker at the Federal Reserve so watch out for his tone (which could well enough dictate the next rate decision, as seen in November).

Not mentioning a few PMIs for the US (ISM Services on Tuesday) and Canada (Ivey PMIs on Wednesday), traders will be all eyes and ears for the Employment data releasing from Tuesday to Friday.

This includes the classic, mid-tier ADP Private Data, but most importantly, the Canadian and US Payrolls.

The effect of the war on the economy is starting to be felt, so major surprises could create significant spikes in the action after relatively dull weeks.

We will publish a preview, but what you have to remember is to focus particularly more on the Unempl

Next Week's High Tier Economic Events

Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics

Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran talks!

• The Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened on April 30 and May 1, 2026, after the USD/JPY pair breached the critical 160.00 level.
• The aggressive yen-buying action, estimated to be over $30 billion, triggered a sharp 2.2% rally in the yen, driving the pair down toward the 156.00 range.
• Historical precedent from the 2024 intervention suggests unilateral action is only temporary, serving to "buy time" rather than reversing the trend without fundamental economic shifts.
• The immediate outlook calls for heightened volatility and sideways consolidation, with key levels to watch being 157.89–158.00 (resistance) and 156.27 (support).

USD/JPY pair has undergone a violent shift in sentiment over the last 48 hours. After flirting with the psychological 160.00 handle, the pair was met with what appears to be aggressive yen-buying intervention (or the high-stakes threat of it), sending the pair into a tailspin.

According to reports, the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the foreign exchange market on April 30 and May 1, 2026, to defend the yen after it breached the critical 160 per dollar level.

The scope of the action involved selling US dollars and buying yen to punish speculators and curb excessive volatility. While official figures are typically released later, initial estimates suggest a massive scale, potentially exceeding $30 billion similar to the 2024 intervention.

The move successfully triggered a sharp 2.2% rally in the yen, briefly driving USD/JPY down toward the 156.00 range. As we head into the weekend, the technical landscape has shifted from a one-way bullish street to a complex battleground of massive volatility.

The question now is, what comes next for USD/JPY?

What comes next for USD/JPY

I thought that it may be appropriate to look at the most recent response to FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

The 2024 intervention campaign by Japanese authorities resulted in a sharp but ultimately temporary correction for the USD/JPY pair.

By executing over $30 billion in dollar sales during the thin liquidity of the May Day holidays, the Bank of Japan successfully drove the exchange rate down to a low of 152.00. However, this success was short-lived, as the intervention only served to "buy time" rather than reverse the underlying trend. Within two months, USD/JPY had recouped its losses and climbed to new highs, driven by persistent fundamental factors such as high energy prices, a hesitant Bank of Japan, and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

Consequently, the 2024 experience serves as a cautionary precedent, suggesting that while unilateral intervention can trigger significant immediate volatility, it struggles to sustain long-term currency strength without a shift in broader economic conditions or support from Washington.

Will we see a similar reaction this time around as the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold the high ground? Let us take a look at the technical picture.

The Daily Chart: A Monumental Rejection at 160.00

On the daily timeframe, the narrative is dominated by the massive "blow-off" top and the subsequent rejection of the 160.00 level.

For weeks, the 160.00 mark acted as the proverbial line in the sand, and the price action suggests that the market simply flew too close to the sun.

The daily candle following the peak is a stark reminder of the "intervention risk" that has been looming over this pair. We have seen a break back below the short-term 50-day MA (black line) at 158.58 and 100-day MA at 157.28 (yellow line).

More importantly, the pair is testing the resolve of the 157.89 horizontal support level.

The RSI on the daily has sharply retreated from overbought territory, suggesting that the parabolic move has been neutralized.

However, the long-term bullish trend remains technically intact as long as the pair holds above the major ascending trendline (currently sitting near 154.50) and the 200-day MA (blue line) far below at 154.00.

USD/JPY Daily Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The H4 Chart: Consolidation Following the Crash

Moving down to the H4 chart, we can see the sheer velocity of the move. The pair plummeted from 160.00 down to a low near 155.50 in a matter of candles. Since that "flash crash," we have seen a period of volatile consolidation.

Currently, USD/JPY is sandwiched between the 156.27 support level and the 157.89 resistance level. The 50, 100, and 200 MAs are all beginning to cluster and point lower, acting as a ceiling for any immediate recovery attempts.

The H4 RSI shows a "Bull" divergence signal recently formed near the lows, which explains the modest bounce we are seeing back toward 157.00.

For the bears to regain full control, they need a clean break and close below 156.00.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The H1 Chart: Intraday Tug-of-War

The H1 chart highlights the immediate "ping-pong" price action. After the initial drop, the pair found support at 156.27 and has since been making a series of higher lows, but it is struggling to clear the 158.00 handle.

Notice how the MAs on the H1 (50,100 and 200) have crossed over into a bearish alignment, with the price currently trading below the 50-period MA (158.01). This suggests that every "relief rally" is being met with fresh selling interest from traders who missed the initial move or those hedging against further BOJ (Bank of Japan) surprises.

The Outlook and Key Levels

The outlook for USD/JPY remains exceptionally clouded by fundamental intervention risk, which often overrides technical setups. However, looking at the levels:

• Resistance: The immediate hurdle is 157.89–158.00. A break back above this could see a retest of the 159.00 region, where the SMAs will likely offer stiff resistance.
• Support: To the downside, 156.27 is the immediate floor. A breach here opens the door for a move toward the 155.00 psychological level and the primary ascending trendline on the daily chart.

USD/JPY One-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

While the long-term trend is still technically bullish, the 160.00 rejection was a "shot across the bow." Traders should expect heightened volatility and "gap" risks. I am leaning toward a period of sideways consolidation as the market digests whether the BOJ is finished or if another leg of yen strength is imminent.