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Key takeaways

• Geopolitical shock fuels haven flows: Escalating US-Iran conflict and fears over a Strait of Hormuz disruption triggered a “haven first” reaction—gold surged, WTI spiked above $70, US equities and Asian indices fell, while the US dollar firmed.
• Gold and oil in bullish breakouts: Gold maintains a short-term uptrend above $5,238 with scope toward $5,448/$5,602, while WTI crude has broken above major 30-month resistance at $70, opening upside toward $74.70–$78.10 unless $67.80 gives way.
• Equities pressured, AUD resilient: The Nikkei 225 risks a deeper correction below 57,140, while AUD/USD holds above 0.7030/0.7020 support, supported by strong commodities, with 0.7140 as the upside trigger.

The US, in collaboration with Israel, has launched an attack on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026, despite an attempt by Oman mediators to extend “diplomacy measures” for another round of negotiation talks over Iran’s nuclear stockpile.

The past 48 hours have seen a flurry of attacks from both sides, with Iran’s retaliation bombardments on US military assets spread across the Middle East in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman.

The latest US-Iran conflict is likely not going to be a “symbolic attack” akin to last summer, as US President Trump said the US military will continue bombing Iran until his objectives are achieved, despite the confirmed death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In today’s Asia session, market participants are generally adopting the strategy of “haven first, ask questions later” amid heightened concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a key chokepoint for global oil flows, which can trigger an upward spiral in oil prices.

Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.9%
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 1.4%
• West Texas crude oil up 6% to around $71.40 per barrel
• Gold (XAU/USD) up 1.6% to around $5,360 per oz
• US Dollar Index up 0.3%
• Japanese yen down 0.5% to 156.80 per dollar
• Swiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7690 per dollar
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) up 1.7% to around 66,880

Let’s look at the short-term technical outlook and key levels on Gold (XAU/USD), WTI crude oil, Nikkei 225, and AUD/USD.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Short-term uptrend remains intact above $5,238

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) continue to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 6 February 2026 low of $4,655. Watch the $5,238 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential extension for the next intermediate resistance to come in at $5,448 before a retest at the current all-time high of $5,602 printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 1).

However, a break and an hourly close below $5,238 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the next intermediate support zone at $5,111/5,046 (also the 20-day moving average).

WTI Oil – Bullish breakout above 30-month major resistance at $70/barrel

Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) has gapped up by 10% on Monday’s Asian opening hour to print an 8-month intraday high of $73.50/barrel before it pared back gains to around 6% to trade at $71.30.

Interestingly, today’s massive rally has triggered a major bullish breakout above its former 30-month major descending resistance from the 28 September 2023 high, which now turns into pull-back support at around $70.00/69.26 (see Fig. 2).

Watch the $67.80 key short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $74.70/75.55 and $78.10 (Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below $67.80 negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at $64.80 and $63.10/62.05 (also the area of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages).

Nikkei 225 – At risk of shaping a minor corrective decline, breaking below 57,140

Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has gapped down by 2.3% in today’s Asian opening hour and shaped a bearish reaction at the time of writing right at the former minor ascending support from the 6 February 2026 low, now turns pull-back resistance at around 58,125 (see Fig. 3).

Watch the 58,808 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a further minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 56,096 and 54,818.

On the flip side, a clearance above 58,808 invalidates the bearish tone to see a retest at the all-time high area of 59,884/60,075 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Holding above the 20-day moving average and 0.7035/7020 support

Fig. 4: AUD/USD minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The AUD/USD has managed to trim its intraday loss of 1% to 0.4% at the time of writing, supported by bullish commodities.

The intraday recovery seen in the AUD/USD has occurred right after the third retest on its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 4).

Watch the 0.7030/7020 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 0.7140 may trigger another round of bullish impulsive up move sequences for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7175 and 0.7210 (also a Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 0.7020 invalidates the bullish tone for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next supports at 0.6980 and 0.6905/6890 (also the 50-day moving average).

The weekend was marked by tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to hundreds of explosions targeting broader Middle East countries as well, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. The flare-up was predictable; markets had been preparing for weeks as US warships advanced to the region preceding the explosions. Yet the events had an immediate effect, sending oil and gas prices higher at the weekly opening bell — casting a shadow over OPEC’s Sunday announcement that the group will accelerate output increases to 206’000 barrels per day in April.

Alas, the disruption of global oil flows due to Middle East tensions dwarfs that number, especially as there are warnings about OPEC’s capacity to significantly increase output and to ship this oil to the market while the Strait of Hormuz — partly controlled by Iran — is now effectively closed.

About 20% of global oil flows transit the Strait of Hormuz, 45% of energy exports are destined for China, more than 80% of LNG exports head toward Asia, and around 30% of Australian refined oil passes through the Strait. Al Jazeera reported yesterday that these developments could remove up to 17 billion barrels of oil from the market — roughly 5.5 months of global crude demand. It’s massive.

No wonder US crude jumped more than 10%, past $75 per barrel at the open, Brent hit $78, and natural gas prices also came under upward pressure. With the initial shock behind, prices are retreating somewhat as investors readjust risk calculations and consider that global oil reserves could cushion part of the disruption — at least temporarily. Also, nearly 70% of global oil production comes from outside the Middle East and does not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz. US shale — which accounts for about 60–70% of US oil production, and more than 20% of global oil supply — could also help mitigate the impact.

But, of course, the longer tensions persist — and the wider they spread geographically — the greater and more durable the impact on energy prices. Recent news suggests that Iran is not ready to negotiate with the US, so for now, tensions appear set to continue. Some analysts already see oil prices rise above the $100pb mark.

Middle East tensions and the disruption to global oil flows could have ripple effects across global economies. Higher energy prices have a notable impact on inflation. Energy typically makes up around 8–10% of CPI baskets, but during major shocks, it can account for up to one-third to one-half of headline inflation — with indirect effects amplifying the impact further.

This, combined with the US PPI coming in significantly higher than expected last Friday, suggests that the last mile toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target could be even more complicated than previously anticipated. In Europe, a period of rising energy prices could compromise the recent easing of inflation below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy target. Given that growth in most regions is still recovering from pandemic, trade and geopolitical tensions, stagflation risks may reemerge depending on how long Middle East tensions last.

This morning, tensions are pushing capital toward safe-haven assets. Gold is flirting with $5’400 per ounce, the US dollar is broadly stronger against major peers, and the US 10-year yield slipped below 4% — already on Friday — due to a major selloff that hit bank stocks over rising stress regarding exposure to private credit risks. That first emerged after an aggressive selloff across software companies this year, topped by news that major lenders had exposure to a UK mortgage company under investigation for irregularities.

Beyond that, strong earnings from Big Tech companies failed to revive appetite in AI enablers, as investors remain uncomfortable with massive capex increasingly financed by debt. Escalating Middle East tensions could further affect Big Tech and software stocks via the inflation and rates channel.

Higher energy prices have a direct earnings impact: data centers are power-intensive, electricity costs rise with energy inputs, logistics and component transport become more expensive, and corporate customers may trim IT spending if energy squeezes margins.
A sustained oil spike could lift inflation expectations and bond yields, pressuring long-duration growth valuations by raising discount rates. That matters for companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet, whose multiples are sensitive to future revenues and real yields.

Over the latest tightening cycle, these companies managed to outperform thanks to AI enthusiasm. But we have probably hit a peak cycle in AI stocks, and a period of concern has emerged, especially regarding leveraged investments. While a large portion of AI capex is still funded through substantial operating cash flows, the fact that these firms are now issuing debt to finance extra infrastructure build-outs means that additional funding costs could rise in a higher-for-longer rate environment, marginally reducing financial flexibility.

Globally, the combination of higher energy costs, broader economic risks, potentially higher discount rates, and rising financing costs will likely weigh on equity valuations.

Appetite across global equities is limited today. The Chinese CSI 300 is surprisingly higher, but the Japanese Nikkei is down 1% at the time of writing, the Hang Seng Index is pushing below its 100-DMA with around a 2% loss, and US and European markets are set to open on a deeply negative note. Among US indices, tech-heavy Nasdaq futures are leading losses, while in Europe, the energy-sensitive DAX will probably see the biggest pressure.

Overall, this week was supposed to be focused on the latest US jobs figures and a few more earnings — primarily from Broadcom and Alibaba. But the geopolitical headlines are likely to be the biggest driver of prices during what promises to be a highly volatile week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7092; (P) 0.7112; (R1) 0.7137; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rise is expected with 0.6896 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.7146 will resume resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3615; (P) 1.3652; (R1) 1.3678; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.3480 are forming a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3725). On the downside, firm break of 1.3630 will bring retest of 1.3480 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. However, decisive break of 55 D EMA will bring stronger rebound to 1.3927 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.92; (P) 210.38; (R1) 210.96; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. Corrective fall from 214.98 should have completed at 207.20 already. On the upside, above 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.89; (P) 184.22; (R1) 184.75; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and some sideway trading could be seen below 184.75. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 172.24 to 186.86 from 180.78 at 189.81. Overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27, in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8718; (P) 0.8738; (R1) 0.8769; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside as rise from 0.8611 is in progress for retesting 0.8863 high. Decisive break there will confirm up trend resumption, carries larger bullish implications. For now, further rally is expected as long as 0.8705 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6567; (P) 1.6604; (R1) 1.6647; More...

Further decline is expected in EUR/AUD with 1.6830 resistance intact, despite some loss of downside momentum. Current fall should continue to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351. However, firm break of 1.6830 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In focus today

In the US, the ISM manufacturing index for February will be released today. January's reading of 52.6 surprised to the upside, driven by a rise in new orders, indicating stronger final demand.

The key focus today will be the unfolding of US-Iran conflict, following the US strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and targeted key nuclear sites. Attention is on Iran's response and the risk of broader regional escalation, while markets react to rising oil prices and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, key data releases include the February Flash HICP from the euro area and the UK spring budget, which will be presented on Tuesday. In the US, focus will be on a series of labour market reports, with the February jobs report, featuring NFP and unemployment figures, taking the spotlight on Friday.

Economic and market news

What happened during the weekend

The US and Israeli strikes on Iran, targeting the country's top leadership, missile program and navy assets, have plunged the Middle East into a regional war. Iran has retaliated by launching broad attacks across the Gulf. Domestically, Iran faces a significant upheaval, with a three-member provisional council taking control after Khamenei's death. The new Supreme leader is set to be appointed in the coming days. The tit-for-tat strikes are expected to continue at least for the coming days. Yesterday, President Trump signalled plans to engage with Iran's new leadership, despite also stating that the conflict could last up to four weeks. No timeline of talks has been provided, and Iran's security chief stated that negotiations with the US are not an option. Overnight, a significant development occurred as Hezbollah joined the conflict, leading to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Markets reacted sharply to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with equities under pressure and oil surged over 6% since Friday, boosting USD amid improved terms of trade. Safe-haven assets rallied, with gold up 1.6%, while CHF outperformed, pushing EUR/CHF near 0.90.

Energy markets, Brent crude surged sharply when markets opened, briefly touching USD 80 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz (SOH), a critical chokepoint for app. 20% of global oil and LNG flows, has seen major shipping lines halt transits following Tehran's warnings and attacks against vessels. OPEC+ has announced a production increase of 206,000 bpd from April, but in the extreme scenario of a complete, weeks-long SOH closure, support to market would be insufficient. The likelihood of extreme action by Iran is undeniably higher than it has ever been, as the regime is battling for survival, but we still consider it unlikely that Iran could disrupt oil and gas flows for so long that it would trigger a global energy crisis.

What happened Friday

In the euro area, country-specific inflation data has been mixed. German inflation fell to 2.0% y/y (cons: 2.1%) from 2.1%, driven by sharply lower food inflation, while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Services inflation regained momentum after January's VAT-related dip, confirming stable underlying dynamics. Spanish inflation surprised on the upside, with headline inflation at 2.3% y/y (cons: 2.2%) and core rising to 2.7% y/y. French flash inflation rose to 1.0% y/y (cons: 0.8%), largely due to energy base effects, though underlying inflation remains subdued. We forecast euro area headline inflation inching up to 1.8%, with core steady at 2.2%.

In the US, January PPI surprised to the upside, mainly driven by the volatile trade services category, reflecting higher sales margins by wholesalers rather than underlying cost pressures. Excluding trade services, producer prices were flat m/m, suggesting limited market impact.

In Norway, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (NAV) held steady at 2.1% in February, slightly below Norges Bank's 2.2% forecast. The number of unemployed fell by 1,000, while new vacancies declined slightly, underscoring a tight labour market, and enabling Norges Bank to focus on inflation when setting rates. Retail sales rose 1.1% m/m in January, with 3M/3M growth at 1.2%, indicating acceleration in recent months.

In Sweden, retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in January and 4.1% y/y, supported by strong durable goods sales, while consumables contributed negatively. Q4 GDP met expectations at 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y, driven by household and public consumption as well as investments. Negative contributions came from inventories and net exports.

Equities: Today, the focus is not on what happened last week or on Friday, but on developments over the weekend and into this morning following US and Israel's attack on Iran. Most Asian equity markets are trading lower, generally in a range of -0.5% to -2%. A few Middle Eastern markets are closed, and some smaller markets such as Karachi are down more sharply.

However, across the major markets, moves remain relatively limited given the scale of the geopolitical escalation. These are not outsized moves compared to what we could have seen on a major macro surprise.

The energy sector is outperforming this morning, as expected, but not to an extreme degree. Importantly, we are not seeing a pronounced defensive rotation. On a large macro shock, we would typically expect a much clearer shift into defensives than what we observe this morning.

European futures are currently down between 0.5% and 1.5%, while US futures are lower by around 1%. Again, in the context of normal daily volatility, this does not stand out dramatically. In itself, the equity market reaction - or relative lack thereof - tells an interesting story about how financial markets are currently assessing the situation in Iran.

FI and FX: The focus is on the market impact of the escalation of the war between Israel/US and Iran towards other parts of the Middle East. We have seen a rise in the oil price this morning as well as a strengthening of the USD, but modest safe haven flows in the bond market. Here, the initial reaction in JGB market has been a very modest with a decline of a few bp. US Treasuries rose rose 1-2bp in Tokyo trading hours. We expect to see some widening of the Schatz spread given the risk-off movement.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9052; (P) 0.9097; (R1) 0.9133; More....

EUR/CHF's fall continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8991 first. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.8894 next. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9149 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.