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Markets opened the week with a clear but measured risk-off tone following dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions over the weekend. While safe-haven flows were evident in Asia, price action so far remains contained rather than disorderly. Investors are reacting, but not capitulating.

Equity markets in the region reflected caution rather than panic. Japanese and Hong Kong stocks both declined roughly -1.5%, a notable pullback but far from crisis territory. The moderation suggests investors are still assessing whether escalation marks prolonged regional war or temporary shock.

Oil initially spiked on reports that shipping through Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled. With major carriers such as Maersk suspending transit through both Hormuz and Suez due to safety concerns, roughly 15 million barrels per day of flows are potentially disrupted. However, gains were tempered after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected output hike, cushioning supply shock.

Gold reacted more decisively, jumping above 5350. Yet even this move appears orderly rather than panicked. The metal remains well below its historical peak near 5600, and momentum resembles extension of existing rebound rather than vertical flight to safety.

In currency markets, Swiss Franc leads gains, followed by Dollar. Canadian Dollar also outperforms, supported by firmer crude prices despite tempered spike. At the weaker end, Kiwi sits at the bottom, followed by Sterling, both pressured by risk aversion. Yen, typically a haven, is softer as markets increasingly price delayed tightening from BoJ, limiting its defensive appeal. Euro and Aussie trade in middle of pack.

Geopolitical shock intensified after confirmed death of Ali Khamenei, triggering broader regional involvement including Lebanon, Kuwait and Bahrain. The widening scope of the conflict has heightened uncertainty around energy supply and political stability.

Attention now shifts to Iranian succession. Reports indicate Mojtaba Khamenei and Ali Larijani are positioning for influence, with Hassan Khomeini viewed as wildcard candidate. Market reaction will hinge on whether power consolidates around hardline or moderate leadership.

If Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backs Mojtaba, investors may anticipate continued hardline stance and prolonged confrontation. Conversely, traction for Larijani or Khomeini could fuel hopes for rapid de-escalation, triggering risk rebound across equities and cyclicals.

Also, any signs of internal IRGC coup or fragmentation within clerical leadership would represent far more destabilizing scenario. Such outcome could amplify volatility well beyond current contained levels.

Traders will also monitor Pentagon press briefing for clues on whether operations are entering new phase. Equally important is messaging from US President Donald Trump, who indicated willingness to hold talks with “new leadership” in Iran. Naming specific counterpart could either stabilize expectations or deepen uncertainty.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.56%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.39%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.54%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.88%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.027 at 2.085.

War premium lifts, violent move possible if 100 gives way

Silver edged higher as markets reacted to escalating tensions in Middle East, with US-Israel-Iran conflict driving aggressive safe-haven flows. Prices surged to an intraday high above 96 before easing slightly as traders locked in partial profits. Despite intraday consolidation, underlying bid remains intact as war premium continues to underpin precious metals.

For now, further gains remain favored while conflict risk dominates sentiment. However, psychological barrier at 100 is shaping up as key battleground in coming sessions. Market structure and positioning suggest that a firm and sustained break above 100 is not expected at this stage without a significant fresh escalation.

Technically, current advance from 63.98 is viewed as second leg of corrective pattern following record high at 121.83. 100% projection of 63.98 to 86.28 from 71.94 at 94.24 has already been met, suggesting measured target of the pattern has technically been satisfied.

While upside bias remains, strong resistance is expected around 61.8% retracement of 121.83 to 63.98 at 99.78. That zone aligns closely with psychological 100 handle and could cap gains. On downside, break below 85.23 would be first signal that rebound from 63.98 has completed.

That said, market dynamics could shift rapidly if physical demand intensifies. An urgent scramble for physical bars amid worsening geopolitical conditions could tighten liquidity and generate squeeze conditions, propelling Silver decisively through 100 and reopening path toward 121.83 record high.

WTI soars above 70 despite OPEC+'s "band aid" production hike

On Sunday, the OPEC+ "V8" coalition took a proactive stance by accelerating production hikes to 206,000 bpd starting in April. This move—surpassing the 137,000 bpd initially anticipated—serves as a strategic pivot to buffer a market shaken by the sudden U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran. While the alliance officially points to "market fundamentals," the timing is clearly a response to the geopolitical flashpoint in the Middle East.

Technically, WTI exhibited extreme volatility at the Monday open, surging past 75 before settling to trade near 70. Despite the OPEC+ supply boost, the near-term outlook remains bullish so long as the 67.36 resistance turned support level holds.

Sustained trading above 70 psychological mark should open the door for a retest of 78.87 key resistance (2025 high). That should be the "line in the sand" for the current bull run.

While a firm break of 78.87 isn't yet expected, a clean break above it would signal a structural trend reversal, unwinding the multi-year downtrend from of 131.82 (2022 high). That could happen in the "nightmare scenario" of a total blockade in the Gulf, that could easily propel prices toward triple digits.

Japan's PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.0, output and orders post fastest gains in years

Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.0 in February, rising from 51.5 in January and marking highest reading since May 2022. The data point to a clear acceleration in factory activity, with the sector extending its expansion and signaling that recovery momentum is broadening at the start of Q1.

According to Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, companies reported the quickest increases in output, new orders, employment and purchasing activity in more than four years. Business confidence also climbed to highest level since mid-2024, supported by expectations that global demand will continue to revive, particularly across technology and automotive sectors.

While input cost pressures eased slightly, price growth remained elevated by historical standards, partly reflecting impact of "weak Yen" on imported materials. Nevertheless, stronger demand could improve firms ability to pass on higher costs, helping to stabilize margins.

US NFP, UK fiscal risks and China target set tone for volatile week

March begins with markets delicately balanced between resilience and repricing risk. The week ahead is defined by one dominant risk event — US Non-Farm Payrolls — but the surrounding calendar ensures volatility will not be confined to Friday. Fiscal credibility in the UK, China’s growth ambitions, and renewed central bank messaging in Australia could all create cross-currents across the markets.

The High-Stakes Events:

Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report would be the most influential event. After January’s strong jobs print, positioning has tilted toward patience rather than imminent easing. That shift was highlighted by comments from known dove Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who explicitly opened door to holding rates unchanged if labor market strength proves durable. A second robust payroll report would likely push expectations for next Fed cut well into second half of year, reinforcing support for and Dollar. Conversely, meaningful downside surprise could revive earlier easing bets.

Sterling traders face their own pivotal moment on Tuesday with UK Spring Statement. Although framed as forecast update under government’s “one major fiscal event per year” rule, markets are laser-focused on fiscal headroom and updated growth projections. If the Office for Budget Responsibility delivers grim growth outlook or if policymakers hint at emergency tax adjustments, Sterling could face sharp repricing. Fiscal credibility remains critical anchor for the Pound's stability.

The Silent movers:

Asia-Pacific currencies may find direction from China’s annual “Two Sessions,” beginning March 4–5. Investors will watch closely for 2026 GDP target and signals around 15th Five-Year Plan priorities. Ambitious growth target or large-scale infrastructure and technology stimulus would likely lift AUD and NZD through improved commodity and trade expectations.

Tuesday also features appearance by RBA Governor Michele Bullock at AFR Business Summit. While the consensus is for another hike in May, some market participants currently lean toward view that last month’s increase was “one and done.” Any hint that tightening cycle is not finished could catch these dovish positioning off guard.

Switzerland adds quieter but meaningful risk with Wednesday’s CPI. Inflation is already exceptionally low, leaving SNB wary of excessive currency strength. A print significantly below zero would heighten risk of verbal intervention against CHF. In current environment of geopolitical tension, Franc has benefited from safe-haven flows. However, ultra-low inflation limits tolerance for further appreciation. Weak CPI could therefore make CHF a silent casualty of its own stability.

Here are some highlights for the week.

United States (USD):

• ISM PMIs (Mon & Wed)
• ADP Employment (Wed)
• Non-Farm Payrolls & Retail Sales (Fri):

Eurozone (EUR):

• Eurozone Flash Inflation (Tue):
• Eurozone Retail Sales (Thu):
• Eurozone GDP & Retail Sales (Fri):

United Kingdom (GBP):

• UK Spring Statement (Tue):

Switzerland (CHF):

• Swiss CPI (Wed):

Australia (AUD):

• Australia Q4 GDP (Wed)

China (CNY):

• The "Two Sessions" (Starts Mar 4)
• NBS & Private PMIs (Wed)

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9052; (P) 0.9097; (R1) 0.9133; More....

EUR/CHF's fall continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8991 first. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.8894 next. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9149 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Silver edged higher as markets reacted to escalating tensions in Middle East, with US-Israel-Iran conflict driving aggressive safe-haven flows. Prices surged to an intraday high above 96 before easing slightly as traders locked in partial profits. Despite intraday consolidation, underlying bid remains intact as war premium continues to underpin precious metals.

For now, further gains remain favored while conflict risk dominates sentiment. However, psychological barrier at 100 is shaping up as key battleground in coming sessions. Market structure and positioning suggest that a firm and sustained break above 100 is not expected at this stage without a significant fresh escalation.

Technically, current advance from 63.98 is viewed as second leg of corrective pattern following record high at 121.83. 100% projection of 63.98 to 86.28 from 71.94 at 94.24 has already been met, suggesting measured target of the pattern has technically been satisfied.

While upside bias remains, strong resistance is expected around 61.8% retracement of 121.83 to 63.98 at 99.78. That zone aligns closely with psychological 100 handle and could cap gains. On downside, break below 85.23 would be first signal that rebound from 63.98 has completed.

That said, market dynamics could shift rapidly if physical demand intensifies. An urgent scramble for physical bars amid worsening geopolitical conditions could tighten liquidity and generate squeeze conditions, propelling Silver decisively through 100 and reopening path toward 121.83 record high.

Gold moved slightly higher as investors looked for safety amid rising geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin demand stayed weak after its recent sharp fall. In stock markets, U.S. equities struggled despite strong earnings from NVIDIA, as concerns about higher U.S. tariffs and uncertainty over the broader impact of AI on existing business models weighed on sentiment.

Earlier in the week, U.S. consumer confidence came in stronger than expected. However, Friday’s higher-than-expected PPI inflation data had a bigger impact on markets. The data increased concerns that interest rate cuts could be delayed, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and supporting the U.S. dollar.

Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply over the weekend after reports of a joint U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran that killed a senior Iranian leader. On Monday morning, oil and gold prices rose on fears of supply disruptions and rising conflict. The U.S. dollar strengthened, while global stock markets fell as investors reduced risk exposure following developments over the weekend.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equity markets ended February on a weak note, and with the recent attacks on Iran, sentiment is likely to remain fragile. Early Monday trading is already testing the February lows. If those levels break, it could trigger faster losses at the start of the week. Short-term traders may consider selling a clear break below the February lows if U.S. markets turn aggressive to the downside. Alternatively, if support holds and buyers step in, a bounce could offer a short-term buying opportunity. Medium-term traders may prefer to wait — either for a recovery toward resistance to sell into strength, or for a confirmed break below the February lows later in the week. Resistance levels are at 49,000, 50,000, and 50,500. Support is seen at 48,300, 48,000, 47,750, and 47,500.

Japanese Stocks

Takaichi’s strong leadership and signs that the Japanese government may lean toward delaying further Bank of Japan rate hikes helped push the Nikkei sharply higher last week, briefly touching 60,000. Although the market saw early selling on Monday due to the Iran conflict, support at the 10-day moving average held, suggesting underlying demand remains firm and downside may be limited. For now, range trading between 57,500 and 60,000 looks like the most practical strategy this week, unless geopolitical risks escalate further. Resistance is seen at 59,000円, 60,000円, and 61,000円, while support is at 57,000円, 56,500円, 56,000円, and 55,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY surprised the market last week, rising strongly on signs that Japanese interest rates may remain low for longer as Takaichi signals support for the economy. This shift in expectations helped weaken the yen and push the pair higher. Early Monday, the conflict in Iran added further strength to the U.S. dollar as investors moved toward safe-haven assets. With the 10-day moving average now turning higher, USD/JPY could continue to test the upside, potentially moving toward 158 as traders watch closely for any signs of Bank of Japan intervention. Resistance is at 157, 158, and 159, while support is seen at 155, 154, 153, and 152.

Gold

Gold moved higher last week as investors worried about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. The weekend escalation between the U.S. and Iran led to a strong open at the start of the week, with safe-haven demand pushing prices up. In the short term, gold looks slightly overbought, so traders should be careful about chasing higher prices. Waiting for a pullback toward short-term moving averages may offer better entry points while the overall uptrend remains intact. If tensions continue, gold could test record highs in the coming weeks. Resistance is at $5,400, $5,500, and $5,600, while support is at $5,200, $4,900, and $4,850.

Crude Oil

Crude oil closed last week near resistance as traders bought on rising Middle East tensions. They were rewarded at the start of this week, with prices gapping around 10% higher following the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran. However, prices have already pulled back from the highs, and how far the conflict escalates will likely determine the next move. In the short term, volatility is likely to remain high, and traders may find opportunities by trading against large moves as the market swings sharply. Medium-term traders could look for buying opportunities ahead of the previous highs near $67.5 if tensions remain elevated. Resistance is at $75, $80, and $85, while support is at $67.5, $65, $60, and $55.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued to drift lower last week, but the lack of aggressive selling kept prices in a range, with buyers holding near $65,000. Trading conditions remain quiet, although the short-term trend is slightly negative as the 10-day moving average continues to point lower. If risk-off sentiment increases due to Middle East tensions, a test of $60,000 is possible this week. Resistance is at $70,000, $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, while support is at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: E.U. German Retail Sales and HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. Nationwide HPI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Tuesday: Japan Capital Spending, Australia Current Account, E.U. CPI
• Wednesday: Australia GDP, Japan S&P Global Services PMI, China Manufacturing PMI, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI and Unemployment Rate, U.K. S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. S&P Global Services PMI and Beige Book
• Thursday: Australia Trade Balance, U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI, E.U. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting, U.S. Trade Balance and Factory Orders
• Friday: E.U. German Factory Orders, U.K. Halifax House Price Index, E.U. GDP, U.S. Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls and Business Inventories

The impact of the conflict in Iran will be the main focus this week, as markets assess whether it leads to further selling of risk assets or is viewed as a contained and expected development with limited broader impact. On the economic side, U.S. employment data on Friday will be the key release to watch, especially after a series of manufacturing data from around the world. The jobs report could influence expectations for interest rates and add to market volatility.

March begins with markets delicately balanced between resilience and repricing risk. The week ahead is defined by one dominant risk event — US Non-Farm Payrolls — but the surrounding calendar ensures volatility will not be confined to Friday. Fiscal credibility in the UK, China’s growth ambitions, and renewed central bank messaging in Australia could all create cross-currents across the markets.

The High-Stakes Events:

Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report would be the most influential event. After January’s strong jobs print, positioning has tilted toward patience rather than imminent easing. That shift was highlighted by comments from known dove Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who explicitly opened door to holding rates unchanged if labor market strength proves durable. A second robust payroll report would likely push expectations for next Fed cut well into second half of year, reinforcing support for and Dollar. Conversely, meaningful downside surprise could revive earlier easing bets.

Sterling traders face their own pivotal moment on Tuesday with UK Spring Statement. Although framed as forecast update under government’s “one major fiscal event per year” rule, markets are laser-focused on fiscal headroom and updated growth projections. If the Office for Budget Responsibility delivers grim growth outlook or if policymakers hint at emergency tax adjustments, Sterling could face sharp repricing. Fiscal credibility remains critical anchor for the Pound's stability.

The Silent movers:

Asia-Pacific currencies may find direction from China’s annual “Two Sessions,” beginning March 4–5. Investors will watch closely for 2026 GDP target and signals around 15th Five-Year Plan priorities. Ambitious growth target or large-scale infrastructure and technology stimulus would likely lift AUD and NZD through improved commodity and trade expectations.

Tuesday also features appearance by RBA Governor Michele Bullock at AFR Business Summit. While the consensus is for another hike in May, some market participants currently lean toward view that last month’s increase was “one and done.” Any hint that tightening cycle is not finished could catch these dovish positioning off guard.

Switzerland adds quieter but meaningful risk with Wednesday’s CPI. Inflation is already exceptionally low, leaving SNB wary of excessive currency strength. A print significantly below zero would heighten risk of verbal intervention against CHF. In current environment of geopolitical tension, Franc has benefited from safe-haven flows. However, ultra-low inflation limits tolerance for further appreciation. Weak CPI could therefore make CHF a silent casualty of its own stability.

Here are some highlights for the week.

United States (USD):

• ISM PMIs (Mon & Wed)
• ADP Employment (Wed)
• Non-Farm Payrolls & Retail Sales (Fri):

Eurozone (EUR):

• Eurozone Flash Inflation (Tue):
• Eurozone Retail Sales (Thu):
• Eurozone GDP & Retail Sales (Fri):

United Kingdom (GBP):

• UK Spring Statement (Tue):

Switzerland (CHF):

• Swiss CPI (Wed):

Australia (AUD):

• Australia Q4 GDP (Wed)

China (CNY):

• The "Two Sessions" (Starts Mar 4)
• NBS & Private PMIs (Wed)

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started another decline and traded below 1.1840.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1800 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD extended losses and traded below 1.3460.
• Crude Oil prices jumped above $74.50 before trimming some gains.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed to stay above 1.1900 and declined against the US Dollar. EUR/USD traded below the 1.1850 and 1.1800 levels to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1820, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at 1.1742, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor upward move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1928 swing high to the 1.1742 low. However, the bears are active below 1.1840.

On the upside, the pair is now facing hurdles near 1.1800. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1800. The first major resistance sits at 1.1840. A close above 1.1840 could open the doors for more gains. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1900. The main resistance sits near 1.1925.

Immediate support could be 1.1765. The first major area for the bulls might be near 1.1740. The main support sits at 1.1720, below which the pair might gain bearish momentum. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.1650 in the coming days.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair started a fresh decline below 1.3500, and there are chances of more losses in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for Feb 2026 – Forecast 50.8, versus 50.8 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing Index for Feb 2026 – Forecast 52.3, versus 52.6 previous

On Sunday, the OPEC+ "V8" coalition took a proactive stance by accelerating production hikes to 206,000 bpd starting in April. This move—surpassing the 137,000 bpd initially anticipated—serves as a strategic pivot to buffer a market shaken by the sudden U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran. While the alliance officially points to "market fundamentals," the timing is clearly a response to the geopolitical flashpoint in the Middle East.

Technically, WTI exhibited extreme volatility at the Monday open, surging past 75 before settling to trade near 70. Despite the OPEC+ supply boost, the near-term outlook remains bullish so long as the 67.36 resistance turned support level holds. Sustained trading above 70 psychological mark should open the door for a retest of 78.87 key resistance (2025 high). That should be the "line in the sand" for the current bull run.

While a firm break of 78.87 isn't yet expected, a clean break above it would signal a structural trend reversal, unwinding the multi-year downtrend from of 131.82 (2022 high). That could happen in the "nightmare scenario" of a total blockade in the Gulf, that could easily propel prices toward triple digits.

Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.0 in February, rising from 51.5 in January and marking highest reading since May 2022. The data point to a clear acceleration in factory activity, with the sector extending its expansion and signaling that recovery momentum is broadening at the start of Q1.

According to Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, companies reported the quickest increases in output, new orders, employment and purchasing activity in more than four years. Business confidence also climbed to highest level since mid-2024, supported by expectations that global demand will continue to revive, particularly across technology and automotive sectors.

While input cost pressures eased slightly, price growth remained elevated by historical standards, partly reflecting impact of "weak Yen" on imported materials. Nevertheless, stronger demand could improve firms ability to pass on higher costs, helping to stabilize margins.

Full Japan PMI manufacturing final release here.

Global markets closed February under conditions few anticipated even days ago. The events in the last 48 hours have shifted the framework from negotiation risk to open conflict. A geopolitical “black swan” has moved from theoretical scenario to live reality.

What had been treated for months as a tail risk scenario has now materialized into direct military confrontation. Markets are no longer pricing probabilities; they are reacting to reality.

The collapse of the Geneva negotiations on February 26–27 marked the final diplomatic failure. By February 28, the long-running shadow war transitioned into open kinetic engagement. The shift from proxy skirmishes to direct aerial bombardment of Iranian territory represents a structural escalation, not a tactical flare-up.

The reported targeting of leadership compounds in Tehran signals something more consequential than a punitive strike. It suggests a strategic pivot away from containment. The objective appears not merely to deter, but to reshape.

Reports that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike—if confirmed—would represent the most significant political rupture in Iran since 1979. For 36 years, Khamenei functioned as the final arbiter of Iranian military and nuclear doctrine. His removal introduces a power vacuum at the highest level of the regime.

That vacuum is not administrative; it is existential. Authority now fragments across the Guardian Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and competing clerical factions. The uncertainty over who controls strategic assets—including nuclear decision-making—has elevated geopolitical risk to unprecedented levels.

This is the primary driver behind the immediate “panic bid” in traditional safe havens. Markets are not responding to a headline; they are repricing systemic uncertainty. The absence of a clear successor or stabilization mechanism removes the typical “off-ramp” that traders rely upon in geopolitical crises.

Institutional positioning suggests that some participants had anticipated escalation. Late Friday saw evidence of quiet risk reduction. When US President Donald Trump signaled that the diplomatic window was effectively closed, institutional desks treated the rhetoric as a near-certainty of kinetic action, particularly with carrier strike groups already deployed.

What distinguishes this episode from prior Middle Eastern tensions is the shift in scale and intent. This is not limited retaliation; it is leadership targeting. That distinction changes the risk matrix from cyclical volatility to structural regime uncertainty.

Energy markets are immediately implicated. Any instability in Iran’s command structure raises questions over the Strait of Hormuz, regional oil flows, and the behavior of proxy forces such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The implications extend beyond crude prices to European energy security.

Europe, in particular, faces second-order risks. The region remains sensitive to supply disruptions following the prior energy shock. Currency markets have already begun to treat this as a European security issue, not merely a Middle Eastern conflict.

Financial markets now enter a new phase where geopolitical premium becomes embedded rather than episodic. This environment challenges traditional cross-asset relationships. Inflation expectations, safe-haven flows, and energy risk may all move simultaneously—but not necessarily in predictable directions.

The technical structures across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities will now determine whether this shock becomes a temporary dislocation or the start of a broader trend reversal. Key support and resistance levels across major benchmarks will serve as early stress tests.

Volatility at the start of the week will likely reveal whether institutional capital views this as a contained military episode or the beginning of a protracted confrontation.

In the sections that follow, we examine how this geopolitical rupture is interacting with technical inflection points in DOW, US 10-year yields, Dollar Index, Swiss Franc, Gold, and WTI crude. The macro shock has arrived. Now the charts will determine its staying power.

DOW Faces First Real Stress Test at 48,459

DOW now sits at a critical technical juncture as markets reopen under full geopolitical stress. Immediate focus is on 48,459.88 support. Decisive break below that level would strongly suggest that the uptrend from 36,611.78 (2025 low) has completed a five-wave sequence at 50,512.79. If that interpretation holds, the current decline would represent more than a routine pullback; it would mark the start of a broader corrective phase.

In such a scenario, the next key downside target lies near 45,728.93. Importantly, that area aligns with a dense cluster of structural support, including the 55 W EMA (now at 45,874) and 38.2% retracement of 36,611.78 to 50,512.79 at 45,202.60. Such confluence zones should attract defensive positioning on first test, making this band a likely battleground between dip buyers and macro de-risking flows.

However, the true line in the sand sits at the 45,000 psychological level. Decisive weekly break below 45k would signal that the market has shifted from corrective weakness to medium-term bearish reversal.

10-Year Yield Breaks 4% as Panic Bid Overwhelms War Inflation

The US 10-year Treasury yield delivered one of the clearest signals of the shock’s intensity, gapping lower on Friday and closing at 3.962 after decisively breaking below the 4.0% psychological mark. In a typical war scenario, investors might price higher inflation risk through elevated energy costs and supply disruptions. Instead, the immediate reaction has been a forceful rush into principal safety, overwhelming any inflation premium.

Momentum now suggests a break of 3.947 medium-term support is likely. The next critical level is 3.886 (2025 low). A firm move below that would confirm that the rejection from the 55 W EMA (now at 4.194) was not temporary, but structural. In that case, yields could extend toward the 61.8% projection of 4.809 to 3.886 from 4.311 at 3.740, with even deeper downside potential toward 100% projection at 3.388 if safe-haven flows intensify.

However, markets remain at a fork in the road. Should yields instead reclaim 4.106 resistance, it could signal that the “sell America” narrative is back.

Dollar Index at Structural Crossroads Amid Conflicting Forces

Dollar Index now finds itself at a critical inflection point, caught between opposing macro currents. On one hand, geopolitical escalation and equity weakness typically generate safe-haven demand for the greenback. On the other, the sharp decline in US yields compresses rate differentials, undermining one of the Dollar’s primary pillars of support. The result is hesitation rather than conviction.

In the short term, attention centers on the 55 D EMA (now at 97.91). A firm push above that level would reinforce rebound momentum. Yet the broader technical structure remains vulnerable unless 100.39 resistance is decisively reclaimed. That level serves as the threshold separating corrective bounce from genuine trend reversal.

More structurally, the Index is pressing against the lower boundary of the long-term channel that has defined the uptrend since the 2008 low at 70.69. This is a make-or-break moment. A strong bounce from here, followed by a break of 100.39, would argue the multi-decade uptrend remains intact. Conversely, a clean fall below 95.55 would confirm a broader multi-year downtrend, potentially accelerating Dollar weakness at precisely the moment global uncertainty is rising.

Swiss Franc Confirms Full Risk Escalation as EUR/CHF Breaks Down

The Swiss Franc has emerged as the clearest barometer of geopolitical stress. Its surge to multi-year highs against the Euro confirms that markets view this conflict not merely as a Middle Eastern event, but as a broader European security risk. Energy supply vulnerability and proximity to the geopolitical fault line have amplified defensive flows into CHF.

EUR/CHF has already broken decisively to the downside, resuming its medium-term down trend. As long as 0.9149 resistance holds, the bearish outlook remains intact. The next immediate target stands at the 61.8% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8991. A firm break below that would not merely be technical follow-through—it would reflect deepening risk aversion across European assets.

Should downside momentum accelerate, attention would shift toward 100% projection at 0.8894. A move of that magnitude would signal a severe deterioration in market confidence and likely coincide with broader stress in European equities and energy markets.

GBP/CHF is also approaching a structural inflection point. The 1.0183 level (2022 low), serves as critical support. A rebound should emerge from that area, at least on first test. However, decisive break below 1.0183 would mark resumption of the multi-decade downtrend, confirming that Sterling-specific weakness is compounding the broader flight to safety.

Gold Surges Toward 5,533 as Panic Bid Tests Structural Ceiling

Gold has extended its rally above 5,280 as safe-haven demand intensifies. The move reflects a classic panic bid driven by geopolitical shock, compounded by falling US yields.

From a structural standpoint, the advance from 4,403.34 is still viewed as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 5,598.38 high. The next major resistance lies near the 100% projection at 5,533.30. That level is critical. A rejection there would keep the broader corrective framework intact and suggest consolidation rather than breakout.

However, investors should remain alert to the risk of upside acceleration. In a true regime shock, technical ceilings can be overwhelmed by capital preservation flows. A decisive push through 5,533 and especially through 5,598.38 would invalidate the corrective view and signal that Gold is entering a new impulsive leg higher.

WTI Approaches 70 as War Premium Builds

WTI crude has resumed its rally from 54.98, breaking above 64.36 last week despite an intra-week dip to 63.69. Technically, the next near term target lies at 61.8% retracement of 78.87 (2025 high) to 54.98 (2025 low) at 69.74. The 70 psychological level sits directly above and is likely to act as the first major resistance zone. Under normal volatility conditions, that region could cap upside on initial test.

However, this environment is not normal. A decisive break above 70 would suggest that markets are shifting from precautionary pricing to full disruption pricing, opening the door toward a retest of the 78.87 high.

On the downside, a break below 63.69 would indicate short-term topping and imply that the initial war premium was partially front-run. For now, the path of least resistance remains higher, but the 70 level will determine whether this becomes a sustained energy shock.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Despite the late dip in USD/CAD, it's still holding on to 1.3630 minor support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.3480 are forming a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3728). On the downside, firm break of 1.3630 will bring retest of 1.3480 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3569) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

EUR/USD gyrated in tight range above 1.1740 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish. However, break of 1.1928 argue that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a correction, and revive near term bullishness. Retest of 1.2081 should then be seen next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.