Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8510; (P) 0.8527; (R1) 0.8542; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the downside for 08491 support. Break there will resume larger down trend to 0.8464 projection level. On the upside, above 0.8563 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6340; (P) 1.6423; (R1) 1.6470; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as fall from 1.6771 is in progress. This decline is seen as part of the larger correction from 1.7062. Next target is 1.6127 and possibly below. On the upside, though, above 1.6512 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.6671 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9305; (P) 0.9348; (R1) 0.9373; More...

EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9471 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. At this point, strong support is still expected above 0.9252 low to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9388 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 0.9471 will resume the rebound from 0.9252 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9574. However, decisive break of 0.9252 will resume whole down rend from 1.0095.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Current fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Another decline is in favor after rebound from 0.9252 completes. However, firm break of 0.9683, and sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9638) will argue that EUR/CHF is already in a medium term rally, even as a corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3395; (P) 1.3430; (R1) 1.3450; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3414 minor support dampened the original bullish view. Intraday bias is back on the downside to 1.3342 support first. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed at 1.3540, and target this low for resuming whole fall from 1.3897. On the upside, however, break of 1.3540 will resume the rebound from 1.3176 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6582; (P) 0.6599; (R1) 0.6628; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 0.6524/6639. Intraday bias remains neutral and further fall is still expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.6639 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.05; (P) 147.70; (R1) 148.14; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.33) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8594; (P) 0.8626; (R1) 0.8645; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment as range trading continues. On the downside, below 0.8605 will resume the pull back from 0.8727 to 0.8487 support. Break there will argue that rebound from 0.8332 has completed, and bring retest of this low. On the upside, firm break of 0.8727 will resume the rebound to 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995 instead.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.8332 could be strong, there is no clear sign of medium term bottoming yet. This rebound is tentatively seen as a corrective move for now. Also, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high) should resume through 0.8332 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2674; (P) 1.2697; (R1) 1.2731; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 1.2499 support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.2784 resistance will suggest that consolidation pattern has completed. Further rise should be seen through 1.2826 to resume the rally from 1.2036. Next target will be 1.3141 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg that's in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0803; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0858; More...

EUR/USD's decline from 1.1138 is resuming by breaching 1.0812 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall should target 1.0722 support next. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low. However, on the upside, break of 1.0931 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Dollar declined broadly overnight, US Treasury's borrowing plan for Q1 that spurred rally in the stock market, propelling it to new record highs while simultaneously exerting downward pressure on yields. Despite this shift, the greenback remains largely within its recent trading range. Market participants seem to be holding the substantial bets for now, awaiting the outcome of FOMC rate decision scheduled for tomorrow. Furthermore, the upcoming non-farm payroll data on Friday is also expected to be a key determinant in shaping the next moves.

Meanwhile, Euro remains the weakest performer this week so far, with market speculation rife about ECB possibly starting interest rate cuts as early as April. Today's Eurozone GDP data is pivotal and could significantly shape these rate cut expectations. Sterling and Swiss Franc are also showing relative softness, trailing Dollar as the third and fourth weakest currencies, respectively.

Contrastingly, New Zealand Dollar has been outperforming, buoyed additionally by hawkish stance of RBNZ Chief Economist, who indicated a reluctance to pivot towards policy easing. Australian Dollar is tracking as the second strongest currency, although its momentum is somewhat dampened by the sharp pullback in stock markets in Hong Kong and China. Meanwhile, Japanese Yen is continuing its near-term corrective recovery, currently ranking as the third strongest.

Technically, EUR/CAD's fall from 1.5041 finally resumed and hit as low as 1.4509. Deeper decline is now expected to 100% projection of 1.5041 to 1.4564 from 1.4733 at 1.4256, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.2867 (2022 low) to 1.5111 (2023 high) at 1.4254. Strong support could be seen there to completed the decline, as well as the corrective pattern from 1.5111. But still, break of 1.4733 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming first. Otherwise, rise will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.19%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.10%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.87%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.31%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0094 at 0.716. Overnight, DOW rose 0.59%. S&P 500 rose 0.76%. NASDAQ rose 1.12%. 10-year yield fell -0.069 to 4.091.

US stocks hit new records amid reduced Treasury borrowing forecast

US stock markets rose strongly overnight, with both DOW and S&P 500 reaching new record highs. This coincided with a mild dip in 10-year yield as bonds rebounded. A key factor influencing this movement was Treasury's announcement of a reduction in its borrowing forecast for Q1. The Treasury indicated plans to borrow USD 760B, which is USD 55B less than its previous estimate in October. This adjustment is attributed to "projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance," as per the Treasury's statement.

Technically, strong resistance could still be seen from 100% projection of 28660.94 to 34712.28 from 32327.20 at 38378.54 to bring a near term pull back. Break of 37796.71 support will indicate the start of a correction back to 55 D EMA (now at 36737.49).

Conversely, decisive break of 38378.54 could trigger reacceleration to 138.2% projection at 40690.15, which is slightly above 40k psychological level, before topping.

RBNZ's Conway: We still have a way to go on inflation

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway struck a hawkish tone in a speech today, tempering market expectations for imminent policy easing. Conway acknowledged the effectiveness of current monetary policy in slowing the economy and reducing inflation. But he emphasized noted that the journey to achieving the target midpoint is far from over. His remarks also indicated that recent weaker GDP data would not automatically lead to a dovish shift in RBNZ's approach.

Conway stated, "Monetary policy is working, with the economy slowing and inflation falling. But we still have a way to go to get inflation back to the target midpoint." He added that the upcoming February Statement would offer more insights, grounded in comprehensive data analysis.

Furthermore, Conway pointed out recent GDP revisions don't necessarily imply a significant reduction in the economy's capacity pressures. He highlighted that private demand, which is more responsive to interest rate changes, has seen upward revisions, particularly in consumption and business investment.

Conway also pointed out that annual non-tradable inflation at 5.9% was higher than RBNZ's forecasts, even though headline CPI slowed to 4.7% in Q4 while core inflation have also fallen.

Australia's retail sales falls -2.7% mom, spending remains subdued

Australia retail sales turnover fell -2.7% mom to AUD 35.19B in December, worst than expectation of -1.9% mom. Annually, sales fell -0.8% yoy.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: "The large fall in retail turnover in December was caused by a fall in discretionary spending. Consumers brought forward some of their usual December spending to November to take advantage of Black Friday sales.

"While there was a large seasonally adjusted fall in December, retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in trend terms. This shows that underlying retail spending remains subdued when we look through the volatile movements over recent months in the lead up to Christmas."

Looking ahead

Eurozone Q4 GDP is the main focus in European session, while GDP from France, Italy, and Germany will also be published. Swiss will release trade balance and KOF. UK will release M4 money supply and mortgage approvals. Later in the day, US will release consumer confidence and house price index.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0803; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0858; More...

EUR/USD's decline from 1.1138 is resuming by breaching 1.0812 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall should target 1.0722 support next. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low. However, on the upside, break of 1.0931 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Economic Indicators Update