Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7356; (P) 1.7406; (R1) 1.7451; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.7287 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.7477 support turned resistance holds. Fall from 1.8160 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.8554. Break of 1.7245 support will target 1.6922 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.7477 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7472) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9307; (P) 0.9313; (R1) 0.9320; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point, and immediate focus remains on 0.9315 resistance. Firm break there will argue that pullback from 0.9394 has completed at 0.9268 already. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for retesting 0.9394. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9315 will keep near term risk on the downside. Break of 0.9268 will resume the fall from 0.9394 to retest 0.9178 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6679; (P) 0.6702; (R1) 0.6723; More...

AUD/USD is holding above 0.6659 support despite current retreat. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. Above 0.6765 will resume the whole rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.6659 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction back towards 0.6592 support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise form 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3848; (P) 1.3869; (R1) 1.3886; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3641 is in progress. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is extending, in its third leg. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.3859) will pave the way to 1.4139 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3789 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, 1.4791 is likely developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1642; (P) 1.1663; (R1) 1.1682; More….

EUR/USD's decline from 1.1807 resumed by breaking through 1.1658 temporary low. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.1671) suggests that rebound from 1.1467 has already completed. Overall development indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1917 is already in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1467 support, and below. On the upside, though, break of 1.1742 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1807 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1408) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3416; (P) 1.3440; (R1) 1.3465; More...

GBP/USD is still holding above 1.3401 support despite current retreat. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3567 will resume the rise from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3401 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3367). Sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is already extending with another falling leg, and target 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7966; (P) 0.7983; (R1) 0.8005; More….

USD/CHF's break of 0.7986 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8123 has completed at 0.7860. The corrective pattern from 0.7828 is probably in another rising leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7943 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.7860 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

• EURUSD falls due to geopolitics and expectations of tariff removal
•  Gold returns to debasement trading.

The US dollar continued its advance on Forex thanks to a new batch of strong macro statistics. Jobless claims rose less than expected. Productivity rose to a two-year high, and the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to its lowest level since 2009. Donald Trump’s plan to balance foreign trade with import tariffs is working. However, the Supreme Court may rule the tariffs illegal by the end of the week on 9 January.

The cancellation of import duties would return funds to American companies and households, which have largely absorbed the cost of tariffs that previously weighed on economic growth. The US economy has continued to expand, supported by investment in artificial intelligence, rising productivity, and the wealth effect created by record equity markets that have boosted household prosperity. The return of tariff revenues would effectively act as a fiscal stimulus, increasing disposable income and corporate cash flow. As a result, GDP growth and inflationary pressures are likely to accelerate.

This combination will create another barrier to lowering the federal funds rate. Stephen Miron’s calls to cut it by 150 basis points in 2026 seem like a voice crying in the wilderness. Most FOMC members understand perfectly well what the return of money from tariffs could lead to. The hawks will gain a strong trump card, the pause in the monetary expansion cycle will be prolonged, and the US dollar will benefit from this.

Rumours of additional sanctions against Russia are putting pressure on the EURUSD. Diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine are not yielding results, and the continuation of the armed conflict will continue to hold back the eurozone economy. Events in Venezuela and talk of Greenland joining the US are increasing geopolitical tensions. According to ECB Vice-President Luis Guindos, this could hurt business, and increased household savings will slow GDP growth.

Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold has managed to counterattack. The precious metal is able to benefit from the Supreme Court’s repeal of tariffs. The return of money will lead to an increase in the US budget deficit and public debt. These processes underlie debasement trading. In 2025, it became one of the key drivers of the 65% rally in XAUUSD.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.54; (P) 156.80; (R1) 157.15; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, but immediate focus is now on 157.88 resistance with today's rally. Decisive break there will extend the up trend from 138.98. Further break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. In any case, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.33 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Dollar is trading broadly higher in Asian session today, and remains the strongest performer of the week, as markets head into the December US non-farm payrolls report. Within FX, USD/JPY stands out as a pair to watch, with the pair edging closer to levels that would confirm an upside break.

This week's price action suggests markets may be positioning for upside risk in the jobs data, rather than bracing for disappointment. That bias is understandable. That narrative is supported by this week’s indicators, which collectively point to a jobs market that remains resilient. Hiring may be subdued, but layoffs remain contained, reinforcing the view that the US economy is slowing only gradually.

The backdrop points to resilience rather than fragility, setting the stage for a payrolls print that could surprise modestly to the upside. Such an outcome would reinforce a wait-and-see stance at the Fed. Markets may continue to debate the timing of the next rate cut, but a decisive shift toward March easing would look premature.

Still, the sustainability of Dollar’s rally hinges on more than the headline payrolls number. Market reactions across equities and Treasury yields will be critical in determining whether USD gains can extend or begin to fade after the event.

Beyond data, legal risk is also on the radar. Markets are bracing for a ruling from the US Supreme Court on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A decision could arrive as early as today. Expectations that the court may strike down the tariffs have grown since November arguments, when justices across the ideological spectrum questioned whether the law grants such sweeping authority. A ruling against the administration could trigger refund claims estimated at up to US 150B, with implications for Treasury issuance and market volatility.

Trade tensions are also resurfacing elsewhere. US–India negotiations are stalled after talks collapsed last year, prompting Trump to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in August. US officials have since suggested the breakdown stemmed from a lack of direct engagement from Indian leadership. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the deal was effectively ready but required a direct call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to close it — a step that never materialized.

On weekly FX performance, Dollar leads, followed by Aussie and Sterling. Loonie lags, ahead of Swiss Franc and Euro. Yen and Kiwi trade in the middle.

NFP Preview: DOW 50k and yield 4.2% decide Dollar path

Dollar has taken the driving seat in FX markets this week, supported by firmer US data and a modest repricing of Fed expectations. Bets on a March rate cut have dipped to around 41%, following the upside surprise in ISM Services earlier in the week, which reinforced the view that US economic momentum remains intact. Nevertheless, hat strength now faces a critical test from Friday’s December non-farm payrolls report. How markets respond across equities, Treasuries and rate pricing will be key in determining whether the Dollar can extend its gains.

Consensus expectations point to a 66k increase in payrolls, broadly in line with November’s 64k gain. Earnings are seen rising 0.3% mom, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge lower to 4.5%. Such an outcome would reinforce the prevailing “low hiring, low firing” narrative.

However, several leading indicators suggest upside risk to the headline payroll number. The ISM Services employment index jumped back from 48.9 into expansion at 52.0, while the Manufacturing employment sub-index also improved from 44.9 to 44.0. The ADP report showed a rebound to 41k jobs from November’s negative print. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to 212k, its lowest level in months. Together, the data point to resilience rather than deterioration.

Market reaction, however, is unlikely to be straightforward. Strong payrolls could be interpreted positively, reinforcing confidence in a soft-landing scenario. Equally, they could be seen as reducing the scope for aggressive easing, triggering a risk-off response that ultimately supports Dollar. The most bullish outcome for the greenback, ideally, would involve equity markets rolling over alongside a sustained rise in Treasury yields.

Technically, DOW is facing a key inflection zone, with 50,000 marking both a psychological level and the upper boundary of a medium-term channel. A break below 47,853 support would suggest a correction is already underway, opening the door to a deeper pullback toward 45,728. Conversely, decisive push above 50,000 could accelerate gains toward 52,179, potentially within January. That, if realized, would be bearish for the greenback.

Meanwhile, 10-year yield continues to find support at its 55 D EMA (now at 4.131). Yet, upside is capped by 4.200 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 4.629 to 3.9047 at 4.207). On the upside, clean break above the 4.200 key level resistance cluster would argue that whole fall from 4.629 has already completed 3.947. That would set up stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 4.368, and take Dollar higher.

China CPI surprises to upside at 0.8%, but full-year picture weak

China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December, with CPI rising from 0.7% to 0.8% yoy, above expectations of 0.6% and marking a 34-month high. The increase was driven mainly by food prices, as fresh vegetables surged 18.2% and beef prices rose 6.9%, supported by pre-New Year holiday demand.

However, price pressures remained uneven. Pork prices continued to fall sharply, down -14.6% yoy, while prices of gold jewelry jumped 68.5%, reflecting strong investment and gifting demand rather than broad-based consumption. According to National Bureau of Statistics, holiday shopping and supportive policies helped lift prices, but the improvement remains selective.

Looking beyond December, the broader deflationary challenge persists. Full-year CPI growth in 2025 was flat, the weakest in 16 years and well below policymakers’ “around 2%” target.

At the producer level, deflation moderated only slightly. PPI improved to -1.9% yoy in December from -2.2%, aided by rising non-ferrous metal prices and capacity discipline in key industries. Still, PPI fell 2.6% for the full year.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.54; (P) 156.80; (R1) 157.15; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, but immediate focus is now on 157.88 resistance with today's rally. Decisive break there will extend the up trend from 138.98. Further break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. In any case, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.33 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.