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Platinum: ⬇️ Sell

• Platinum reversed from pivotal resistance level 150.00
• Likely to fall to support level 135.00

Platinum recently reversed down from the resistance area between the key resistance level 2450.00 (which stopped earlier impulse wave 1) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 2450.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – which stopped the previous impulse wave 3 from December.

Given the strength of the resistance level 2450.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Momentum indicator, Platinum can be expected to fall to the next support level 2100.00.

The first major economic release of 2026 arrives this Friday, January 9, at 8:30 AM ET. Following a year of significant volatility marked by a federal government shutdown and a series of interest rate cuts, this Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the definitive barometer for whether the Federal Reserve’s recent easing cycle was a masterstroke or a premature reaction to a cooling labor market.

Risks Heading into the Release

The primary risk remains data noise. Residual effects from the late-2025 government shutdown continue to cloud the "true" hiring trend. Additionally, significant downward revisions to October and November figures could overshadow a decent December headline, painting a bleaker picture of the quarter's momentum.

Market participants are also wary of a potential "January Effect," where rebalancing and new-year optimism collide with high-stakes data.

Lastly there is the growing pressure on Jerome Powell in what will be one of his last meetings as Fed Chair. Comments from Stephen Miran on Thursday may be a sign of what Powell's successor would bring as they would be appointees of the current administration.

Miran said he is looking at 150 bps of rate cuts through 2026, to boost the labor market. That is quite a stark contrast to what the Fed is currently pricing.

The Consensus: A Moderate Recovery

Economists are forecasting a modest rebound in hiring after months of data distortions. The consensus for December’s NFP sits at approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs. This follows a November print of 64,000 and a catastrophic, shutdown-skewed October that saw over 100,000 jobs temporarily erased.

While the headline hiring remains below historical norms of 100k+, the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.5% (from 4.6%).

This slight drop is largely attributed to furloughed federal workers returning to payrolls and a low rounding threshold in the household survey.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM (3.6% YoY), a level the Fed considers consistent with its long-term inflation goals.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Deviation from the Consensus: What It Means

The Hawkish Beat (85k+): A surprise to the upside would suggest the labor market is far more resilient than the Fed’s recent 75bps of cuts implied. This would likely ignite a "good news is bad news" reaction, as traders would be forced to price out a March rate cut, fearing the Fed may have to pause or even reverse course to combat "sticky" inflation.

The Dovish Miss (<50k): A sub-50k print would confirm fears of a "material" weakening in labor demand. This would validate the market's current pricing for at least two more cuts in 2026, reinforcing the narrative that the US is in a late-cycle expansion vulnerable to recession.

Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Nasdaq 100

The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received.

The DXY is currently technically oversold and trades near key support levels. This creates an asymmetric upside risk. Because the market is already heavily positioned for a dovish Fed, a stronger-than-expected report (above 75k) could trigger a violent short-covering rally, driving the DXY back toward the 100 level. Only a significantly weak report would have the power to push the dollar toward fresh multi-year lows.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, January 9, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index enters this release on a knife’s edge. If the report hits the "Goldilocks" zone (moderate hiring with cooling wages), the Nasdaq could rally on the promise of continued Fed support. However, a strong NFP would likely spike yields, putting immediate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Conversely, a deep miss might initially support stocks via lower yields, but could quickly sour into a "growth scare" sell-off.

Nasdaq 100 Four-Chart, January 9, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Outlook Moving Forward

If Friday’s data confirms that hiring has bottomed out, the Fed may find its "soft landing." However, if the 3-month average continues to slide, the pressure on Jerome Powell and his potential successor to provide more aggressive liquidity will become the dominant market theme for the remainder of the quarter.

EURUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURUSD broke daily up channel
• Likely to fall to support level 1.1600

EURUSD currency pair has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the medium-term correction (2) – which started earlier from the resistance zone between the resistance level 1.1800.

The price earlier broke the support trendline of the daily up channel from November – which accelerated the active wave (2).

Given the bullish US dollar sentiment seen today, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1600.

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI crude oil reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 58.50

WTI crude oil recently reversed from the support zone between the long-term support level 55,2 (which has been reversing the price from April), support level 56.35 and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which stopped the earlier impulse waves iii and 5.

Given the strength of the nearby support zone, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 58.50 (top of the previous correction ii).

The Euro extends bear-leg from 1.1808 (dec 24 peak, where larger rally was capped by Fibo 76.4% of 1.1918/1.1468) and attempts to establish below important Fibo level at 1.1678 (38.2% of 1.1468/1.1808 rally).

The pair is on track for the second consecutive daily close below this level that would verify fresh bearish signal.

The price continues to trend lower along with the top of thinning daily cloud which will twist late next week and remain magnetic.

Bears eye targets at 1.1638 (Fibo 50% / 55DMA) and 1.1623/15 (cloud twist / daily higher base of Dec 8/9), though face increased headwinds at 100DMA support (1.1663), where Monday’s attack was strongly rejected.

Oversold stochastic contributes to scenario of consolidation preceding fresh weakness, as daily studies are bearishly aligned (double-top / negative momentum / 10/20; 5/10; 5/20 and 5/30DMA bear-cross).

Potential upticks should be ideally capped under 1.1700 (former higher base) while sustained break above 1.1730 zone (broken Fibo 23.6% / 20/10DMA’s) would sideline bears.

Res: 1.1683; 1.1800; 1.1730; 1.1765
Sup: 1.1638; 1.1615; 1.1598; 1.1562

Markets

The minor return action lower in core bond yields over the past couple of days turned to a halt today. The long end of the curve underperformed, both in Europe, where yields rise up to 3 bps, and the US (2.2-3.4 bps). We haven’t seen a particular trigger but do note the enormous supply this week so far, resulting in the busiest-ever start to the year. Italy and Portugal are adding to the flush with a dual (7-yr and 20-yr) offering of €20bn and a 10-yr €4bn sale respectively today. Such heavy and frontloaded issuance suggests governments and corporates are keen to lock in funding before something (geopolitics, upcoming earnings season …) breaks the current benign market conditions. Market’s healthy risk appetite is perhaps most visible in stock markets. The EuroStoxx50 and US indices, despite edging marginally lower today, are all hovering near record highs. At the same time, though, large-scale bond issue volumes won’t be one-offs in times of semi-permanent huge fiscal deficits. Gilts again outperform Bunds and Treasuries. Long-term yields barely recover from yesterday’s 7 bps hit. Currency markets barely make a dent in the intraday charts. EUR/USD trades an extremely tight sideways pattern between 1.167 and 1.168. DXY holds steady around 98.75. EUR/GBP posts gains for a third day straight with the pair moving back towards the 0.87 barrier (and re-entering the downward sloping trading short-term trading range).

Today’s economic calendar was second-tier, in particular ahead of tomorrow’s December payrolls, but nevertheless had a few prints in store. US jobless claims for example rose from 200k to 208k but remain low from a historical point of view. An unexpected drop in the October trade deficit, the smallest since 2009, triggered some buzz. The numbers, delayed by the government shutdown, showed imports dropping 3.2% (nonmonetary gold, medication reversing an earlier surge amid tariff uncertainty) and exports rising 2.6%. The EC’s economic confidence indicator in Europe came in to the weak side of expectations (96.7 from 97.1), owing to an unexpected drop registered in the services sector (5.6 from 5.8) and lower (final) consumer confidence, but remained among the highest levels of the last two years. The ECB’s consumer inflation expectations survey showed those for the 1-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr staying unchanged at 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.2%. One data point that perhaps deserved more attention than it got were German factory orders surging a consensus-crushing 5.6% m/m (10.5% y/y, fastest since 2011 excluding Covid). It’s the defense buildup (metal products, transport equipment) at play, but even excluding for these large-scale orders, they were still up by 0.7% m/m, the statistics agency reported.

News & Views

Overall Swiss prices were unchanged in December, to be 0.1% higher Y/Y (from 0% Y/Y in November). Average annual Swiss inflation reached 0.2% in 2025. On a monthly basis, lower prices for international package holidays, medicines and several types of vegetables balanced out higher prices for hotels and supplementary accommodation and the hire of private means of transport. Core inflation, excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel, came in at 0% M/M and 0.5% Y/Y. Both measures remain within the Swiss National Bank’s 0%-2% inflation target band. Goods price deflation (-0.6% M/M & -1.7% Y/Y) contrasted with higher services prices (+0.4% M/M & +1.2% Y/Y). Apart from inflation date, the SNB today released Minutes of the December policy meeting. The governing board found that there was currently no need for monetary policy action. “Neither a tightening nor a further easing would be appropriate at this juncture”. This duality marks a shift from September when the SNB opted not to ease further. EUR/CHF sits comfortably near the middle of the 0.92-0.9450 trading range in place since mid-April.

The Bank of England’s monthly Decision Maker Panel survey showed price and wage growth expectations slightly easing in December while employment remains negative but less severe than before. CFO’s from surveyed firms see year-ahead 1- and 3-yr expected CPI inflation stable at respectively 3.4% and 2.9%. Realized annual own-price growth and year-ahead expected own-price inflation both notched 0.1 ppt lower to 3.7% (in the three months to December) and 3.6%. Realized annual wage growth and expected year-ahead wage growth both declined by the same margin to 4.4% and 3.7%. Firms reported that realized annual employment growth was -0.4% in the three months to December, up from -0.7%. Expectations for employment growth over the next year weakened slightly, falling by 0.2 ppt to -0.4% in the three months to December.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1666; (P) 1.1684; (R1) 1.1696; More….

Immediate focus is now on 1.1658 temporary low in EUR/USD. Firm break there will resume the decline from 1.1807. More important, that would indicate that corrective pattern from 1.1917 is already in the third leg. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1467 support. On the upside, however, break of 1.1807 will resume the rise from 1.1467 to retest 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1408) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7955; (P) 0.7967; (R1) 0.7990; More….

Focus remains on 0.7986 resistance in USD/CHF. Firm break there will argue that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending with another rising leg already in progress. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8123 resistance. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 0.7905 support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 0.7860 will target a retest on 0.7828 low.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.44; (P) 156.62; (R1) 156.95; More...

USD/JPY is still extending sideway consolidations below 157.88 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected with 154.33 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.33 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3436; (P) 1.3477; (R1) 1.3497; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is in favor with 1.3401 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3567 will resume the rise from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3401 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3365) and possibly below. Sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is already extending with another falling leg, and target 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.