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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8678; (R1) 0.8687; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8643 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.8720 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618) will carry larger bearish implications. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8720 will bring stronger rally back to 0.8796 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8617) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7356; (P) 1.7406; (R1) 1.7451; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.7287 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.7477 support turned resistance holds. Fall from 1.8160 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.8554. Break of 1.7245 support will target 1.6922 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.7477 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7472) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9307; (P) 0.9313; (R1) 0.9320; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point, and immediate focus remains on 0.9315 resistance. Firm break there will argue that pullback from 0.9394 has completed at 0.9268 already. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for retesting 0.9394. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9315 will keep near term risk on the downside. Break of 0.9268 will resume the fall from 0.9394 to retest 0.9178 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6679; (P) 0.6702; (R1) 0.6723; More...

AUD/USD is holding above 0.6659 support despite current retreat. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. Above 0.6765 will resume the whole rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.6659 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction back towards 0.6592 support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise form 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3848; (P) 1.3869; (R1) 1.3886; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3641 is in progress. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is extending, in its third leg. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.3859) will pave the way to 1.4139 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3789 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, 1.4791 is likely developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1642; (P) 1.1663; (R1) 1.1682; More….

EUR/USD's decline from 1.1807 resumed by breaking through 1.1658 temporary low. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.1671) suggests that rebound from 1.1467 has already completed. Overall development indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1917 is already in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1467 support, and below. On the upside, though, break of 1.1742 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1807 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1408) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3416; (P) 1.3440; (R1) 1.3465; More...

GBP/USD is still holding above 1.3401 support despite current retreat. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3567 will resume the rise from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3401 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3367). Sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is already extending with another falling leg, and target 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7966; (P) 0.7983; (R1) 0.8005; More….

USD/CHF's break of 0.7986 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8123 has completed at 0.7860. The corrective pattern from 0.7828 is probably in another rising leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7943 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.7860 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

• EURUSD falls due to geopolitics and expectations of tariff removal
•  Gold returns to debasement trading.

The US dollar continued its advance on Forex thanks to a new batch of strong macro statistics. Jobless claims rose less than expected. Productivity rose to a two-year high, and the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to its lowest level since 2009. Donald Trump’s plan to balance foreign trade with import tariffs is working. However, the Supreme Court may rule the tariffs illegal by the end of the week on 9 January.

The cancellation of import duties would return funds to American companies and households, which have largely absorbed the cost of tariffs that previously weighed on economic growth. The US economy has continued to expand, supported by investment in artificial intelligence, rising productivity, and the wealth effect created by record equity markets that have boosted household prosperity. The return of tariff revenues would effectively act as a fiscal stimulus, increasing disposable income and corporate cash flow. As a result, GDP growth and inflationary pressures are likely to accelerate.

This combination will create another barrier to lowering the federal funds rate. Stephen Miron’s calls to cut it by 150 basis points in 2026 seem like a voice crying in the wilderness. Most FOMC members understand perfectly well what the return of money from tariffs could lead to. The hawks will gain a strong trump card, the pause in the monetary expansion cycle will be prolonged, and the US dollar will benefit from this.

Rumours of additional sanctions against Russia are putting pressure on the EURUSD. Diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine are not yielding results, and the continuation of the armed conflict will continue to hold back the eurozone economy. Events in Venezuela and talk of Greenland joining the US are increasing geopolitical tensions. According to ECB Vice-President Luis Guindos, this could hurt business, and increased household savings will slow GDP growth.

Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold has managed to counterattack. The precious metal is able to benefit from the Supreme Court’s repeal of tariffs. The return of money will lead to an increase in the US budget deficit and public debt. These processes underlie debasement trading. In 2025, it became one of the key drivers of the 65% rally in XAUUSD.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.54; (P) 156.80; (R1) 157.15; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, but immediate focus is now on 157.88 resistance with today's rally. Decisive break there will extend the up trend from 138.98. Further break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. In any case, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.33 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.