Sample Category Title

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks has suggested that a smaller rate hike of 25 basis points in May is possible, although a 50 basis point increase should not be dismissed entirely.

In an interview with Latvian news service Leta, Kazaks stated, "At some points, it's only natural that the step size is reduced. For example, the increase could be not 50 basis points, but 25 basis points."

Regarding the upcoming ECB Council meeting in May, Kazaks commented, "Should we move to a lower step already at the ECB Council meeting in May? I think there is every possibility for that, but a 50 basis point increase is not an option that can be ignored."

Kazaks remains optimistic about the Eurozone's economic outlook, pointing out that "the economy is still resilient, there will probably not be a recession in the Eurozone this year, the labor market remains strong, the pressure on wages is still very high and in some cases even increasing. Therefore, in my opinion, a rate increase is necessary."

The EURUSD rally that started after the September 28, 2022 low of 0.9535 made a new higher high at 1.1075, surpassing the February 2, 2023 high of 1.1320. It has not been a one-way street higher, but euro bulls managed to recover from the early March 2023 dip. The recent price action appears to have formed a nicely structured double-top pattern, but euro bears should wait for confirmation. Specifically, a move lower and a subsequent break of the 1.0523 area, the neckline of the pattern, is needed in order to validate this structure.

Euro bears would love some support from the momentum indicators to stage such a move, but the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) and RSI do not seem eager to help. The former shows a mildly trending market and the latter is comfortably sitting above its 50-threshold area. Interestingly, the RSI appears to be somewhat toppy, which matches the stochastic oscillator at this stage. This indicator has been hovering at its overbought (OB) territory for the past two weeks, showing some early signs of rally exhaustion.

For the euro bears’ wish to come true, they need a strong signal from both the RSI and stochastic. Should this occur, euro bears would face support at the March 15, 2023 upward sloping trendline before they come up against the busy 1.0711-1.0745 area. This is defined by the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September 28, 2022 – April 14, 2023 uptrend and the December 15, 2022 high. Breaking this range is crucial for short-term momentum.

On the other hand, the bulls could try to retest the 1.1075 high on April 14, 2023. If successful, the March 31, 2022 high of 1.1184 appears to be the next target, with the path then clear until the 1.1400 area.

To conclude, EURUSD made a one-year high, but euro bulls potentially want more. However, the bears are already eyeing the bearish double-top pattern forming and are anticipating the appropriate signal from the momentum indicators to stage the move lower.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0952; (P) 1.1014; (R1) 1.1055; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1075. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0830 support holds. Above 1.1075 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.68; (P) 133.26; (R1) 134.35; More...

Breach of 130.04 suggests that USD/JPY's rebound from 129.26 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for rally towards 137.90 resistance. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8%

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2361; (P) 1.2454; (R1) 1.2508; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.2545. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2343 support holds. Above 1.2545 will target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2343 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8885; (P) 0.8922; (R1) 0.8977; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 0.8858 temporary low. On the downside, below 0.8858 will resume the down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.9070 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6668; (P) 0.6736; (R1) 0.6778; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3310; (P) 1.3353; (R1) 1.3404; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Overall, fall from 1.3860 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976. In case of another decline, down side should be contained by 1.3224/61 support zone to bring rebound. Break of 1.3552 should turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.58; (P) 165.90; (R1) 166.40; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 166.82 temporary top, but outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 162.75 support holds. Above 166.82 will resume the larger rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.49; (P) 146.82; (R1) 147.40; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 137.37 is in progress for retesting 148.38 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 149.75 long term resistance. On the downside, below 146.06 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 142.53 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.44) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. Decisive break there will resume long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40.