Sample Category Title

USD/JPY:

USDJPY is in a bullish trend on the H4 chart. To add to the confluence, the price is also above the ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Price reflected off the first support at 143.519, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located, overnight. Price is expected to move towards the first resistance level at 144.952, where the key 145 level is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 144.952
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 143.474

DXY:

On the H4, price has broken lower from the ichimoku cloud and is moving in a descending manner hence we are bearish bias. It has broken the resistance and is moving toward the first support at 109.334 where my swing low sits. If bearish momentum continues, it will bring price to my second support at 107.669 where my second support and previous swing low sits. Alternatively price could bounce back to test the first resistance at 111.672 where my 38.2% retracement sits then the second resistance at 114.719 where the 61.8% projection and previous swing high sits

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 111.672
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 109.334

EUR/USD:

On the H4, price is moving within the descending trendline but in an ascending manner, with the price above ichimoku cloud- we are slightly bullish biased. Price has bounced off the first support and is moving toward the first resistance at 1.00473 where the 78.6% projection sits. If price breaks this level, it will test the second resistance at 1.0194, where the previous swing high sits. Alternatively, the overall bearish momentum could bring price back to test the first support at 0.9870 where the previous swing low and 50% retracement sits. If it breaks this level, we have a strong bearish confirmation to bring price down to 0.9750 where the swing low and 61.8% projection sits

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.0047
• H4 1st support at 0.9907

GBP/USD:

On the H4 time frame, prices have bounced off the support level and are moving in an ascending manner, we are slightly bullish. Price is moving toward the first resistance at 1.1443, where the 78.6% retracement and overlap resistance sits. If it breaks this level, its bullish momentum will bring price to second resistance at 1.1739 where the previous swing high sits. Alternatively, price could pull back to test the first support at 1.0915, where the 38.2% retracement sits then the second support at 1.0355 where the 138.2% extension sits

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.1443
• H4 1st support at 1.10915

USD/CHF:

On the H4 chart, price has rejected the resistance level and is moving in a descending manner hence we are bearish bias- prices are moving toward the first support at 0.9755 where the previous swing low sits. If bearish momentum continues, it will bring price down to the second support at 0.9626 where the overlap support sits. Alternatively, price could bounce back to test the first resistance at 0.9968 where the 127.2% extension and 100% projection sits then to test the second resistance at 1.0046

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 0.9755
• H4 1st resistance at 0.9968

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, price continues to trade higher above the ichimoku cloud as it approaches the 1st resistance of 1733 which is the previous swing high from 12 September 2022 and the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level. We continue to have a bullish bias that price could trade higher to the 2nd resistance of 1764 which is in line with the 78.60% fibonacci retracement level and previous swing high from end August 2022.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1733.39
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1685
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 1764

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price testing the resistance at 0.65333, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement sits, and crossing ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the current resistance successfully, we can expect the price rise to the 1st resistance at 0.66373, which is in line with the 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the 1st support at 0.645225, which is in line with the overlap support, if the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support could be at 0.63902, where the swing low is.

Areas of consideration

• H4, intermediate resistance at 0.65333
• H4, 1st resistance at 0.66373

NZD/USD:

On the H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud and crossing the neckline of double bottom pattern, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.58678, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and the target price of double bottom pattern. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 0.55942, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, current price
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.58678

USD/CAD:

On the H4, the price trades at the support turned 1st resistance level of 1.36 which is in line with the 23.60% fibonacci retracement level. With the price within the ichimoku cloud, we have a short term bearish bias. Price could fall to the 1st support of 1.34 which is in line with the 50% retracement level and the previous swing low. Alternatively, if price breaks above the 1st resistance level, the USDCAD could trade higher towards the 2nd resistance of 1.3832 which is the previous swing high.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.36
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.34
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 1.3832

OIL:

Oil is in a bearish trend on the H4 chart. However, price turned bullish a week ago, and price is now above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market has entered a medium term bullish trend. Price has also closed above the first support level at 93.381, which is marked by the 78.6% Fibonacci line. Price is expected to move towards the first resistance level at 96.538, which contains the 100% Fibonacci and 0% Fibonacci lines.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 96.538
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 93.381

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Price is bearish on the H4 chart. However, a short-term bullish trend appears to be forming over the last week. Price broke back above the first support level at 29653.29, which corresponds to the previous swing low. If the short-term bullish momentum continues, price will move towards the first resistance level at 31268.01, which contains two 50% Fibonacci lines.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 29653.29
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 31268.01

DAX:

On the H4, with the price moving below ichimoku cloud and long term descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the 1st support at 12388.84, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st support is broken, the 2nd support could be at 11857.67, which is in line with the swing low. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 12904.82, which is in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 12388.84
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 11857.67

ETHUSD:

ETHUSD is bearish on the H4 chart. However, the overnight price has closed above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market may turn bullish in the short term. For the past three weeks, the price has consolidated along 1279.54, the first support level. Price is expected to continue rising towards the first resistance level at 1420.74, where the previous swing low is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1420.74
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1279.00

BTCUSD:

On the H4, price is showing a short term ascending trendline and testing the 1st resistance at 20427.23, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. If the 1st resistance is broken, the next resistance could be at 21864.11, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may pull back from the 1st resistance and drop to the 1st support at 18527, which is in line with the swing lows and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Take note the 19105.38 could be the intermediate support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 20427.23
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 21864.11

S&P 500:

On the H4, with the price breaking out of the descending channel and trading higher from 1st support of 3754, which is in line with the 23.60% fibonacci retracement level, we continue to have a bearish bias. The price could continue trading higher to the 1st resistance of 3895 which is inline with the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level and previous swing high. Alternatively, the price could reverse back into the descending channel to trade lower towards the 2nd support level, which is at the previous swing low of June 2022.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 3895
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3754
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 3639

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1206; (P) 1.1350; (R1) 1.1473; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1023 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.0351 is over. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.0351. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2292 to 1.0351 at 1.1551 will pave the way to 1.2292 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Next target is 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. There is no scope of a medium term rebound as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds.

Dollar traded with an undertone in Asian session together with Yen and Swiss Franc. The pull back in US stocks overnight turned out to be shallow and brief. Major indexes managed to pare back much of earlier losses to close just slightly lower. Investors seemed to be just cautious ahead of Friday's job report. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are strengthening in Asian session, while Euro and Sterling are mixed.

Technically, in addition to Dollar's next move, development in Sterling is also worth a note. After two volatile weeks, both EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF are now pressing 55 day EMA (from opposite sides of course). The Pound appears to be finding it difficult to break through the EMAs decisively. Rejection from there could prompt sellers to come back and push it back towards the near term spike low. As for GBP/CHF, break of 1.0811 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.0183 has completed, and bring deeper fall back towards there.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.01%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.17%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.32%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.004 at 0.254. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.14%. S&P 500 dropped -0.20%. NASDAQ dropped -0.25%. 10-year yield rose 0.142 to 3.759

Fed Bostic: Lowering rates in 2023? Not so fast

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said yesterday, "I would like to reach a point where policy is moderately restrictive --between 4 and 4 1/2 percent by the end of this year -- and then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react,"

There is "considerable speculation already that the Fed could begin lowering rates in 2023 if economic activity slows and the rate of inflation starts to fall," Bostic said. "I would say: not so fast."

"We should not let the emergence of (economic) weakness deter our push to lower inflation," he added. "We must remain vigilant because this inflation battle is likely still in early days."

NZ Robertson not concerned with NZD outlook, NZD/USD extending recovery

New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said today that it's going to be a "challenging year" with "global slowdown". New Zealand would see "less demand and some slowdown". But, "that doesn't mean, to me, a recession. There is balance to struck here."

"Monetary and fiscal policies need to be coordinated, to work together," he said. "As interest rates rise they'll restrict demand." He also said that he's "not concerned on the long-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar."

NZD/USD is extending the recovery from 0.5563, but after all, that's seen as a corrective move in a down trend. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6467 to 0.5563 at 0.5908. Larger down trend is still expected to resume at a later stage to 2020 low at 0.5467.

On the data front

Australia AiG performance of construction dropped from 47.9 to 46.5 in September. Goods and services trade surplus narrowed from AUD 8.97B to AUD 8.32B in August, below expectation of AUD 10.0B.

Looking ahead, Germany factor orders, UK PMI construction, Eurozone retail sales, and ECB meeting accounts will be featured in European session. US Challenger job cuts, jobless claims and Ivey PMI will be released later in the day.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1206; (P) 1.1350; (R1) 1.1473; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1023 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.0351 is over. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.0351. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2292 to 1.0351 at 1.1551 will pave the way to 1.2292 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Next target is 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. There is no scope of a medium term rebound as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
21:30	AUD	AiG Performance of Construction Index Sep	46.5		47.9
00:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Aug	8.32B	10.00B	8.73B	8.97B
06:00	EUR	Germany Factory Orders M/M Aug		-0.50%	-1.10%
08:30	GBP	Construction PMI Sep		48.1	49.2
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug		-0.30%	0.30%
11:30	EUR	ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
11:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep			30.30%
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 30)		205K	193K
14:00	CAD	Ivey PMI Sep		62.3	60.9
14:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage		125B	103B

New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said today that it's going to be a "challenging year" with "global slowdown". New Zealand would see "less demand and some slowdown". But, "that doesn't mean, to me, a recession. There is balance to struck here."

"Monetary and fiscal policies need to be coordinated, to work together," he said. "As interest rates rise they'll restrict demand." He also said that he's "not concerned on the long-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar."

NZD/USD is extending the recovery from 0.5563, but after all, that's seen as a corrective move in a down trend. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6467 to 0.5563 at 0.5908. Larger down trend is still expected to resume at a later stage to 2020 low at 0.5467.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said yesterday, "I would like to reach a point where policy is moderately restrictive --between 4 and 4 1/2 percent by the end of this year -- and then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react,"

There is "considerable speculation already that the Fed could begin lowering rates in 2023 if economic activity slows and the rate of inflation starts to fall," Bostic said. "I would say: not so fast."

"We should not let the emergence of (economic) weakness deter our push to lower inflation," he added. "We must remain vigilant because this inflation battle is likely still in early days."

Key Highlights

• NZD/USD failed to recover above the 0.5800 resistance zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.5750 on the 4-hours chart.
• Crude oil price started a steady increase above the $85.00 resistance zone.
• The US Initial Jobless Claims could increase from 193K to 200K.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar found support near 0.5565 after a strong decline against the US Dollar. NZD/USD formed a base and started a recovery wave above 0.5600.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to recover above the 0.5620 and 0.5640 resistance levels. The pair even spiked above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6161 swing high to 0.5564 low.

However, the pair failed to recover above the 0.5800 resistance zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.5750 on the same chart.

An immediate resistance is near the 0.5750 level and the trend line, above which the pair could test the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The next major resistance is near the 0.5860 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6161 swing high to 0.5564 low. A clear move above the 0.5860 level might send the pair towards the 0.5900 level.

The next major hurdle could be near the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.5640 level. The main support sits at the 0.5600 level.

A downside break below the 0.5600 zone might send the pair towards the 0.5565 level. The next major support is near the 0.5500 level, below which the pair could even test the 0.5420 support zone.

Looking at crude oil price, there was a decent increase above the $85 level and it seems like the bulls are aiming a move towards $90.

Economic Releases

• Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2022 (YoY) - Forecast -1.7%, versus -0.9% previous.
• Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2022 (MoM) - Forecast -0.4%, versus +0.3% previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 200K, versus 193K previous.

DAX shows incomplete bearish sequence from 11.18.2021 high and 3.29.2022 high favoring further downside. Decline from 3.29.2022 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 3.29.2022 high, wave (W) ended at 12390.95 and wave (X) rally ended at 13947.85. Wave (Y) decline is now in progress with subdivision as another double three WXY in lesser degree. Down from wave (X), wave ((a)) ended at 12603.58. Wave ((b)) rally ended at 13564.83 and the 45 minutes chart below starts from here. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 11862.75 and this completed wave W of (Y).

Wave X of (Y) rally is now in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave W, wave (i) ended at 12198.37 and wave (ii) ended at 11866.98. Index then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 12669.53 and wave (iv) ended at 12455.36. Expect 1 more rally higher in wave (v) to end wave ((a)). Index should then pullback in wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 9.28.2022 low before the next leg higher in wave ((c)) to end wave X. Near term, as far as pivot at 11862.75 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

DAX 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

• GBPAUD reversed from resistance level 1.7650
• Likely to fall to support level 1.7400

GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 1.7650 (previous monthly high from August), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7650 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave (a).

Given the clear daily downtrend, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7400 (former resistance from August).

• EURJPY reversed from resistance level 144.00
•  Likely to fall to support level 142.00

EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 144.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of June).

The downward reversal from the resistance level 144.00 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the resistance level 144.00, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 142.00.

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