Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.87; (P) 154.07; (R1) 154.44; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral first and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 154.63 resistance will argue that pull back from 158.19 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high. On the downside, break of 152.35 will resume the fall towards 148.93 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). The stay above 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Current rise should now target 61.8% retracement 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93 next. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 148.93 structural support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.35; (P) 129.65; (R1) 130.23; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral as a temporary low is formed at 129.02 with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 130.58 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 129.02 will resume the fall from 133.44 to 127.92 key support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, however, break of 130.58 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress and the strong support support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Further rise would be seen to retest 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will resume the whole long term rise from 109.03 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 127.91 support will argue that a medium term top is formed, and turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8397; (P) 0.8412; (R1) 0.8440; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral as a temporary low is formed at 0.8381. Some consolidations could be seen, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8593 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8381 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 to 0.8276 long term support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5557; (P) 1.5602; (R1) 1.5677; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. But outlook stays bearish with 1.5743 resistance intact . On the downside, break of 1.5354 support will resume the whole fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Firm break there will confirm resumption of long term down trend from 1.9799.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0507; (P) 1.0517; (R1) 1.0536; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.0596 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0505 low will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200. On the upside, though, break of 1.0596 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Focus is now on 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2579; (P) 1.2613; (R1) 1.2633; More...

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is expected as long as 1.2491 support holds. As noted before, fall from 1.2947 has possibly completed with three waves down to 1.2886. Rally from there would target a retest on 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.2491 support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.2886 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7253; (P) 0.7273; (R1) 0.7296; More...

AUD/USD lost downside momentum after hitting near term channel support, and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But further decline is expected as long as 0.7369 resistance holds. We'd holding on to the view that rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555. ON the downside, break of 0.7248 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. On the upside, however, break of 0.7369 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555 instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

General trend

• EUR/USD trades slightly lower after prior gain.
• Copper FUTs rise over 1%.
• US equity FUTs rise after mixed session on Wall St.
• US Fed Chair announcement in focus.
• Nikkei has traded modestly higher, little reaction seen to stimulus confirmation; Index heavyweights lag [Fast Retailing and Softbank Group].
• Hang Seng TECH index has dropped >2% after earnings/guidance from Alibaba; Alibaba drops over 10%.
• Shanghai Composite ended morning trading slightly higher (+0.3%).
• S&P ASX 200 has also seen a slight gain.
• Companies due to report during the NY morning include Buckle, Foot Locker, Tuniu Corp.

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened flat.
• (AU) Australia reappoints Carol Schwartz as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board Member for additional 5-year term [has been RBA board member since 2017].
• (AU) Former Australia PM Rudd: Australia not responding well with China, President Xi is more assertive than predecessors.
• (AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 0.25% Nov 2024 bonds, Avg Yield: 0.9588%, bid to cover 4.74x.
• (NZ) New Zealand Oct Credit Card Spending M/M: +8.4% v -3.3% prior; Y/Y: -5.6% v -12.9% prior.
• (NZ) Markets are pricing in 36bps rate hike at next Wed's [Nov 24th] Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting [implies some probability of a 50bps rate hike] - US financial press.

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.1%.
• (JP) JAPAN OCT NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CPI EX-FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.1%E.
• (JP) Japan Final Stimulus Draft confirms spending of ~¥55.7T.
• (JP) Japan PM Kishida: Have compiled a strong economic package with ¥56T spending and ¥79T overall size [in line], put together economic measures for post coronavirus.
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Release of "Final Report on the Results of the Public Consultation on the Treatment of Tough Legacy Contracts in Japan" (the Cross-Industry Committee on Japanese Yen Interest Rate Benchmarks).

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.1%.
• (KR) South Korea Oct PPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 8.9% v 7.5% prior (fastest annual pace since 2008).
• (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) expected to raise inflation forecasts at next week's policy meeting, expected to affirm GDP forecasts; cites analyst; the article notes the BOK is widely expected to hike rates by 25bps to 1.00% - financial press.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -1.5%; Shanghai Composite opened flat.
• (CN) China Daily: China said to be considering measures to cut taxes and fees by up to CNY500B in order to support small and medium-sized cos.
• (CN) China Securities Journal: Local Govts need to increase bond sales to meet targets.
• (CN) Property Developer Zhongliang [2772.HK] notes remittance of funds to cancel $99.5M of its Nov 2021 notes, $100.5M in notes due Nov 2021 remain outstanding.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY50B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY50B prior; Net drain CNY50B v Net drain CNY50B prior.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.3825 v 6.3803 prior.
• (HK) China PBOC sells CNY25B in 3-month and 12-month bills in Hong Kong.
• (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) Sells 3-month and 6-month bills.
• (CN) China Central Bank (PBOC) Body: Financial institutions should actively provide exchange rate hedging services; Should NOT help companies speculate [from Nov 18th].
• (CN) China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) said to ease requirement related to insurers' investments in bonds - US financial press.

North America

• (US) Said that Senator Manchin (D-WV) has sought meetings with current Fed Chair Powell and with potential nominee Brainard (Dove) - Press.
• (US) CBO statement: Pres Biden tax enforcement element of reconciliation bill would reduce US budget deficit by $127B over 10 years.
• (US) Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove): A low unemployment rate does not mean everyone who wants a job can get one.
• (CA) Canada PM Trudeau has raised concerns on the US Proposed Electric Vehicle (EV) Tax credits [follows meeting with Biden].
• (US) Federal Reserve issues new rule that US banks must report hacking incidents within 36 hours; Compliance required by May 1st.
• (US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +26 BCF VS. +24 BCF TO +26 BCF INDICATED RANGE.
• (US) OCT LEADING INDEX: 0.9% V 0.8%E.
• (US) NOV PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 39.0 V 24.0E 39.0 (highest since April >50, which was a 48-year high).
• (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 268K V 260KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.08M V 2.120ME.
• (US) US Govt identified several vials on Nov 15h and sent the frozen vials labelled smallpox to the CDC on Nov 18th; CDC confirms no trace of Variola virus in vials.
• (US) White House: 'Build Back Better' would reduce deficit by $112B over the next 10 years based on its new analysis.
• (CA) Canada PM Trudeau: Confirms raising concerns on US Tax credits for EVs and Buy America.

Europe

• (UK) Compromise between UK and Europe on EU judges is reportedly within reach in Northern Ireland talks - UK press.
• (UK) Nov GfK consumer Confidence: -14 v -18e.
• (RU) Russia Pres Putin: Talks on settling Ukraine crisis are headed to a dead end; US and its allies are not taking Russia's 'red lines' seriously.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.2% , Hang Seng -1.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.3% ; Kospi +0.6%.
• Equity S&P500 Futures: +0.4%; Nasdaq100 +0.5%, Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.3%.
• EUR 1.1374-1.1352 ; JPY 114.39-114.22 ; AUD 0.7283-0.7266 ;NZD 0.7049-0.7016.
• Gold +0.2% at $1,864/oz; Crude Oil +0.8% at $79.01/brl; Copper +1.7% at $4.3740/lb.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.92; (P) 114.20; (R1) 114.52; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 114.95 is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 113.74 minor support holds. Break of 114.96 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18. However, break of 113.74 will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 112.71 near term structural support.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9240; (P) 0.9266; (R1) 0.9281; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first and more consolidation could be seen below 0.9328 temporary top. On the upside, above 0.9328 will resume the rally from 0.9084 for 0.9367 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9236 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9084 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.