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As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 2, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +525 contracts to 34 982. Bets increased on longs but dropped on shorts. The greenback got supported as the Fed will formally start QE tapering in mid-November. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures declined -5 118 contracts to 6 138. NET LENGTH of GBP futures edged higher, by +94 contracts to 15 047. The BOE disappointed the market by leaving the Bank rate unchanged in November. Sterling slumped after the meeting .

On safe-haven currencies, NET SHORT of CHF future gained +1 269 contracts to 20 648 while that of JPY futures added +588 contracts to 107 624. Concerning commodity currencies, NET SHORT of AUD futures climbed +250 contracts to 75 496. NET LENGTH for NZD futures increased +4 955 contracts to 13 861 during the week. CAD futures saw NET LENGTH up +842 contracts to 4 162.

EUR/USD breached 1.1523 to 1.1512 last week, but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further is in favor as long as 1.1615 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.1512 will extend the pattern from 1.2348 to 61.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1453. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1306. On the upside, though, above 1.1615 minor resistance will dampen the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1691 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) already. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we'd hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

USD/JPY extended the consolidation from 114.69 last week and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3833 accelerated to as low as 1.3423 last week. The development argues that larger decline from 1.4248 is still in progress. Initial bias stays on the downside this week first 1.3410 low first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.3164 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3604 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9084 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9174 resistance holds. Break of 0.9084 will resume the fall from 0.9367 to 0.9017 support, and then 0.8925. On the upside, however, break of 0.9174 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7555 extended lower last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week first. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7394) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7470 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

USD/CAD's consolidation from 1.2286 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Upside should be limited by 1.2497 to complete the consolidation to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to retest 1.2005 low. However, firm break of 1.2497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, we're viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, rejection by 55 month EMA, follow by firm break of 1.2061 support, will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

GBP/JPY's sharp decline last week dampened our original bullish view. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Fall from 158.19 would target 148.93 key support level. On the upside, though, break of 156.22 resistance will revive near term bullishness and target 158.19 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). The stay above 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Current rise should now target 61.8% retracement 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93 next. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 148.93 structural support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, GBP/JPY could have set up a long term up trend already with break of 156.69 resistance, and the stay above 55 month EMA. Current rise from 122.75 could target a test on 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's correction from 133.44 extended lower last week. Further fall could still be seen this week, but downside should be contained above 130.45 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 132.55 will bring retest of 133.44. Break there will resume larger up trend from 114.42. However, firm break of 130.45 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 127.91 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress and the strong support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Further rise would be seen to retest 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will resume the whole long term rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 109.03 to 137.49 from 114.42 at 142.88. This will now remain the favored case as long as 127.91 support holds.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

EUR/GBP rebounded strongly last week and the development suggests short term bottoming at 0.8401. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.8656 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole down trend from 0.9499 has completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8401 at 0.8820. On the downside, break of 0.8459 minor support will bring retest of 0.8401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8276 support holds. Break of 0.9499 is in favor at a later stage, to resume the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low).