Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5312; (P) 1.5419; (R1) 1.5480; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for retesting 1.5250 low. Sustained break there will confirm resumption of larger down trend. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci support. On the upside, break of 1.5523 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption nand target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0549; (P) 1.0603; (R1) 1.0635; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, break of 1.0694 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the downside from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7496; (P) 0.7526; (R1) 0.7550; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7452 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771. On the downside, however, break of 0.7452 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7390) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2339; (P) 1.2373; (R1) 1.2419; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2286 is extending. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 1.2497 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1502; (P) 1.1596; (R1) 1.1657; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1523 support. Break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and that from 1.2348 too, for long term fibonacci level at 1.1289 next. For now, further decline is expected as long as 1.1691 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3641; (P) 1.3722; (R1) 1.3776; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.3646 support holds. On the upside, above 1.3833 will resume the rebound from 1.3410 to 1.3912 key structural resistance. Firm break there will indicate that the correction from 1.4248 is complete with three waves down to 1.3410. On the downside, however, break of 1.3646 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.3410 low.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9144; (R1) 0.9184; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9225 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9101 will target 0.9017 support, and then 0.8925. On the upside, however, break of 0.9225 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9367 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

The EURUSD pair continued its Friday weakness as investors focused on the strong US inflation data. Numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the country’s personal consumption expenditure increased to 4.4% in September. That was the highest number since 1991 and is a sign that the Fed will start turning more hawkish. Besides, the PCE figure is the bank’s favourite measure of inflation. The pair will react to the latest US and Eurozone manufacturing PMI data by Markit and the Institute of Supply Management.

The AUDUSD pair remained under pressure after data from China showed that the manufacturing sector was struggling. Data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the manufacturing PMI declined to 49.2 in October. This was the second straight month that the PMI has been below the expansion zone of 50. Manufacturers blamed the easing real estate industry, supply shortages, and higher prices for the weakness. The pair also struggled as investors waited for the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

US futures held steady as investors reacted to ongoing corporate earnings. Last week, data by Google and Microsoft showed that the two companies did well in the third quarter as advertising and cloud demand rose. However, data by Apple and Amazon were disappointed as the chip shortage and cost of doing business rose. Data compiled by FactSet showed that about 56% of all companies in the S&P 500 index already published their earnings. Of these firms, 82% have reported better earnings while 76% have reported better revenues. The earnings season will continue this week, with some of the companies that will publish being Franklin Resources, McKesson, Nutrien, Chegg, KKR, Apollo Global, and Mondelez among others.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair declined sharply on Friday after strong US inflation data. By declining, the pair managed to erase the gains that it made after the ECB decision. It is trading at 1.1558, which is substantially below last week’s high of 1.1692. On the four-hour chart, the pair moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has moved below the neutral line. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key support at 1.1520, which was the lowest level last month.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair declined sharply because of the stronger US dollar. The pair declined to a low of 1.3680, which was the lowest level in 2 weeks. The pair moved below the lower side of the ascending channel shown in green. It has also moved below the short and longer-term moving averages and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, after this bullish breakout, the path of the least resistance is lower ahead of the BOE and Fed decisions.

XAUUSD

The XAUUSD pair declined sharply after strong US inflation data. It declined to a low of 1,773, which was the lowest level since October 16. On the four-hour chart, the pair moved below the lower side of the ascending channel. It also moved below the 25-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the next key support at 1,700.

General trend

• UST yields have risen at the start of the new month.
• Nikkei 225 has extended rise.
• Japan LDP wins outright majority in Parliament elections over the weekend. Speculation that PM could replace the second in command in the party.
• China manufacturing PMI has its second consecutive contraction, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI has its second consecutive expansion.
• Australia opens its borders to international flights today, NZ looking at re-opening retail soon.
• Increased calls and speculation for the RBA to drop or change its bond yield target and or forward guidance. Tomorrow's rate decision should be closely watched.
• Japanese cos. due to report earnings include Kyocera, Shionogi and AGC.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite have lagged; Property indices decline, Travel-sensitive firms drop amid the focus on the rise in COVID cases; CN Banks rise after earnings results.
• S&P ASX 200 has moved higher after opening flat [REITs rise after prior drop; Westpac’s results weigh on Financials].
• Companies due to report during the NY morning include ON Semiconductor, PG&E, Timken.

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand.

• ASX 200 opened 0.0%.
• WBC.AU Reports FY21 (A$) Cash Net 6.95B v 2.6B y/y; adj Cash net 5.35B v 5.2B y/y, announces A$3.5B share off market buyback.
• AST.AU To be acquired by Brookfield led consortium at A$2.65/shr cash.
• (AU) Australia Oct Melbourne Institute Inflation M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.7% prior.
• (AU) Westpac calls on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to scrap its bond yield target and forward guidance that rate will remain on hold until 2024 at tomorrow's meeting.
• (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT HOME LOANS VALUE M/M: -1.4% V -2.0%E; INVESTMENT LENDING M/M: +1.4% V -4.0% PRIOR.
• (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Offers to buy A$1.60B in Govt bonds v A$1.60B prior; No offers for Apr 2024 yield target bond for YCC.
• (AU) Australia opened boarders to international flights as of Nov 1st (1st time in 19 months).
• (NZ) New Zealand PM Ardern: Auckland retail may reopen starting next week, Auckland will remain at level 3.
• Apollo Consolidated: Ramelius increases unconditional offer for company to A$0.621/shr (Prior A$0.562/shr); Board unanimously recommends offer.

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +1.5%.
• (JP) Japan Election Results: Ruling LDP wins outright majority (as expected), Wins 261 seats in Parliament v 465 seats available (prior held 276 seats).
• 9432.JP CFO: Company market cap should be worth at least ¥15T within 2 years (20% higher from current level), additional buybacks may take place - press.
• (JP) Japan PM Kishida: To pass extra budget ASAP; Will reveal full extent of coronavirus plan by mid Nov.
• (JP) Japan Oct Final PMI Manufacturing: 53.2 v 53.0 prelim (confirms the 9th straight month of expansion, highest since April).
• (JP) Japan Ruling bloc said to consider a special diet session for Nov 10th - press.
• (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.6T v ¥2.6T indicated in 0.1% 10-year JGBs; avg yield 0.1070% v 0.0490% prior; bid to cover: 3.14x v 2.45x prior.

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.5%.
• (KR) South Korea Oct Trade Balance: $1.7B v $2.1Be; Chip exports y/y: 37.8%.
• (KR) South Korea Oct PMI Manufacturing: 50.2 v 52.4 prior (12th month of expansion).
• (KR) Korea sells 30-year bonds: avg yield 2.435% v 2.205% prior.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -0.4%; Shanghai Composite opened -0.5%.
• (CN) CHINA OCT MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.2 V 49.7E (2nd consecutive contraction).
• (CN) CHINA OCT CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.6 V 50.0E (2nd consecutive expansion, 4 month high).
• (CN) PBOC Newspaper: PBOC Local branches have provided a window guidance to local banks on Property loans; To keep property loans stable.
• (CN) China PBOC backed Financial News: Yuan might remain under pressure, US dollar will likely strengthen as the Fed tapers bond purchases.
• (HK) Macau Sept Casino Rev (MOP) 4.37B v 5.88B prior; Y/Y +57.3% v 165.9% prior.
• (CN) China Foreign Min Wang and US Sec of State Blinken met for the first time since Alaska meeting, all talk focused on Taiwan – press.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.4192 v 6.3907 prior.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY200B prior; Net Drain CNY190B v Net inject CNY100B prior.
• (CN) China Securities Journal: China PBOC not likely to cut RRR in the near term (in line with other speculation).

Other

• 2454.TW Expected to increase wafer chip prices by ~10% in 2022 – Press.
• (TW) Taiwan Central Bank Gov Yang: Conditions for raising interest rates include inflation and rate increases in neighboring countries; Price rises will not spark inflation.

North America

• (US) White House Press Sec Psaki: Tested positive for COVID on Sunday; Have not had close contact with Biden since Wednesday.
• (CN) US Treasury Sec Yellen: Wants China to meet trade deal commitments; Looking at eventual reciprocal lowering of tariffs.

Europe

• (UK) Govt spokesperson Blain: UK ready to respond to France in Brexit fish row; It is up to French govt to step back from threats.
• (FR) French Pres Macron: G-20 agreed to coordinate on energy prices between energy consumers and producers.
• (FR) France Oct Car Registrations Y/Y: -30.7% v -20.5% prior.
• (IE) Ireland Oct PMI Manufacturing: 62.1 v 60.3 prior.

Levels as of 01:15ET

• Hang Seng -1.1%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +0.4%; Nikkei225 +2.5%; ASX 200 +0.8%.
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax +0.2%; FTSE100 +0.2%.
• EUR 1.1565-1.1546; JPY 114.31.-114.03; AUD 0.7525-0.7499; NZD 0.7180-0.7153.
• Commodity Futures: Gold +0.1% at $1,785/oz; Crude Oil -0.4% at $83.25/brl; Copper +0.3% at $4.39/lb.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.55; (P) 113.82; (R1) 114.25; More...

USD/JPY rebounds today but stays in range below 114.69. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.