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Commodity currencies, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars, remain under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, as investors await signals from Jerome Powell on the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Adding to the uncertainty were the recently released FOMC minutes: most Committee members expressed concern about accelerating inflation amid tariff policies and are not ready to rush into easing. At the same time, for the first time since 1993, two members advocated a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring fresh inflation data in Canada and US business activity indices, which could fuel volatility and provide short-term guidance for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair approached the July highs earlier this week. Technical analysis of AUD/USD suggests a possible strengthening of the downtrend should the pair firmly consolidate below 0.6400. On the daily timeframe, several bearish candlestick patterns (bearish engulfing and three black crows) have formed, with their completion potentially paving the way for a test of key support levels at 0.6340–0.6380. At the same time, sharp pullbacks and false breakouts of these levels could occur, with a subsequent return to 0.6440–0.6460. The pair has been declining for the second consecutive week, and given the corresponding fundamental backdrop, a corrective rebound remains possible.

Key events that could influence AUD/USD:

• Today at 14:30 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US)
• Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Manufacturing PMI
• Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+3): Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

USD/CAD

Yesterday, USD/CAD buyers managed to refresh the monthly high at 1.3880. On the daily timeframe, several bullish patterns have emerged, the completion of which might support further gains towards 1.3920–1.4000. A move below 1.3850, however, could bring the pair back to 1.3800.

Key events that could influence USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) in Canada
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Core Retail Sales in Canada
• Tomorrow at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

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Eurozone private sector activity gained modest momentum in August, with Composite PMI rising from 50.9 to 51.1, its highest level in 15 months. Manufacturing led the improvement, climbing from 49.8 to 50.5, a 38-month high. Services softened slightly from 51.0 to 50.7. Growth remains fragile, but the data signals that businesses are coping better than expected with the current trade and policy backdrop.

Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Cyrus de la Rubia noted that despite headwinds from U.S. tariffs and lingering uncertainty, the EU’s single market has helped cushion the blow, with domestic demand and tourism acting as stabilizers.

Manufacturing output has now expanded for six straight months, driven by Germany. France, previously a drag, showed signs of stabilization in both manufacturing and services. However, US trade policy continues to bite. Eurozone manufacturing foreign orders fell for the second month in a row, with Germany now also seeing declines after holding up earlier in the year.

While cost pressures in services remain an ECB concern, the steadiness in selling-price inflation provides "a bit of relief".

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8623; (P) 0.8645; (R1) 0.8682; More...

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8652 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 0.8752 has completed at 0.8595 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.8752. Firm break there will resume larger rebound from 0.8221. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.8595 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8501) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8036; (P) 1.8094; (R1) 1.8166; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside as rise from 1.7245 extends. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.8520, which is close to 1.8554 high. On the downside, below 1.8058 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.05; (P) 171.68; (R1) 172.24; More...

EUR/JPY recovered ahead of 170.94 support and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 172.99 will resume the rebound from 169.69 to retest 173.87 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 170.94 will suggest that the corrective pattern from 173.87 has started the third leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 169.69 support, and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 169.95) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.56; (P) 198.51; (R1) 199.14; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is back on the downside with break of 198.58 minor support. Deeper correction could be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 197.42) and possibly below. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 200.26 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9349; (P) 0.9384; (R1) 0.9404; More....

A short term top was formed at 0.9452 with current steep decline in EUR/CHF. While initial support is seen from 55 D EMA (now at 0.9365), further fall is in favor as long as 0.9400 support turned resistance holds. Sustained trading below the EMA will suggest that the rebound from 0.9218 has completed, and target 0.9265 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 0.9400 will bring retest of 0.9452 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1623; (P) 1.1649; (R1) 1.1675; More...

Sideway trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1589 support holds. Above 1.1729 will bring retest of 1.1829 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.1589 will turn bias to the downside, and extend the corrective pattern from 1.1829 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3432; (P) 1.3471; (R1) 1.3494; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. While correction from 1.3594 might extend lower, down side should be contained by 1.3399 support. On the upside, break of 1.3594 will resume the rise from 1.3140 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3398 will argue that the corrective pattern from 1.3787 is extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline should the be seen back towards 1.3140.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3090) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.84; (P) 147.33; (R1) 147.79; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 148.51 will indicate that the pullback from 150.90 has completed, and bring retest of this high. This will also keep the whole rise from 139.87 alive. However, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that the rebound from 139.87 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.