Despite brief pull back, EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4625 extended and hit as high as 1.5073. We’re holding on to the view that pull back from 1.5226 has completed at 1.4625. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.4901 support holds, for 1.5226. Rise from 1.3624 is possibly resuming. Break of 1.5226 will confirm and target 1.5455 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4901 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4625 support will dampen this bullish view. In that case, we’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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