EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9264 extended lower last week and accelerated after failing to break above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9166). The development confirms that rebound from 0.8979 has already completed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 0.8979 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9167 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9258) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
. The development confirms that rebound from 0.8979 has already completed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 0.8979 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9167 resistance holds.){kind=link}