EUR/JPY’s stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that corrective pull back from 164.89 has completed at 159.74 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 164.89 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rise from 156.16, as another leg of the corrective pattern from 154.40. Next target is 100% projection of 156.16 to 164.89 from 159.74 at 168.47.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.27).
