GBP/USD’s extended decline and break of (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) suggests that it might have completed a double top pattern (1.3787, 1.3725). Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement at 1.2744 next. On the upside break of 1.3247 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099. Firm break there will confirm bearish reversal. In case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.
 suggests that it might have completed a double top pattern (1.3787, 1.3725). Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement at 1.2744 next. On the upside break of 1.3247 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.){kind=link}