USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.38; (P) 161.59; (R1) 161.93; More…

USD/JPY declines sharply in early US session and breaks 160.25 support decisively. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 157.62) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. Meanwhile, rise will now stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94. However, sustained break of 154.53 will raise the chance of larger scale correction and target 140.25/151.89 support zone.

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