USD/JPY’s steep decline last week indicates medium term topping at 160.71, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But as a temporary low should be formed at 155.48, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 158.81) holds. Below 155.48 will target 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74).
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 153.90) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
 holds. Below 155.48 will target 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74).){kind=link}